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Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

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Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#21
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure all of these "ever recorded" records for global temps are only since 1979.

Pretty sure you're dead wrong.

The recent headlines are all based on NCEP, a model which isn't exactly super reliable.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1676391692461547522

In fact, if you read past the headlines in the articles, they also include the same caveat:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2023/07/0...

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/06/climate/climate-change-re...

The NYT article buries the fact by making it seem like they were only presenting data that far back, but it is literally in the first sentence of the WP article... directly contradicting the very same article's headline.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#22
post #14
post #8

[flagged]

I'm downvoting you for two reasons: a) preemptively complaining about downvotes, b) calling an existentially threatening development with endless significant evidence and broad scientific consensus a "creed". If you know an anecdote says nothing about a large scale development, why mention it at all?

[flagged]

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#23
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty sure all of these "ever recorded" records for global temps are only since 1979.

Pretty sure you're dead wrong.

(also, just wanted to let you know this comes off as a bit unnecessarily rude -- you might want to phrase it more gently / give some reasons why you believe so next time)

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#25
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They get down-voted because they're worse than useless.

[flagged]

I don't think an anecdote against an average makes sense.

For example, lets say a study finds Tylenol reduces fevers, an anecdote of 'it never did for me or my friends and family' is somewhat of a relevant anectode because that would be very unlikely if the study was true.

Now lets say a study finds 'the average height in 5th grade is 5ft 4in'. And someone responds 'I am in 5th grade and I am only 5ft, the study is a screed and maliciously motivated'. That isn't a relevant anecdote because of how averages work. Just like your anecdote here.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#26

The 1930's are triggered.

Pretty sure all of these "ever recorded" records for global temps are only since 1979.

> Our planet’s seas have been warming for decades. The most recent decade has been the sea surface’s hottest since at least the 1800s.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#27
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They get down-voted because they're worse than useless.

[flagged]

So because some studies don't replicate or are corrupt, they all are, and we should rely blindly on gut instinct?

The whole point is that science isn't a religion. Science is just forming a hypothesis, testing it, and then analyzing your results (often mathematically) to determine whether your hypothesis was supported, rejected, or if the results were inconclusive. It's a best-effort thing using the tools and methods available. It's not infallible, but it doesn't ever ask you to "believe" anything.

>blindly trust the study

No, nobody here has ever told you to blindly trust anything, I can assure you. You can always look at the study yourself and look to identify why you might not agree with their conclusions, and that's how peer review works! You can review their evidence, and analyze their logic for how they drew conclusions based on the evidence, and if you find a flaw in their reasoning or how they collected their data, then you're free to criticize it and hopefully whoever carries on that research will repeat the experiment but take your feedback into account.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#28
post #13
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They get down-voted because they're worse than useless.

[flagged]

Ok there’s some confusion here.

Some studies being wrong does not make all of them wrong.

It certainly doesn’t give anecdotes any special credibility.

Furthermore the well established body of knowledge about of human induced climate change is made up of countless studies, predictions, observations and general scientific and engineering knowledge going back almost 200 years.

To reject or throw that into doubt because there are a handful of swindlers in science just as in any other human endeavour is like saying all modern medical equipment is probably a fraud because of Theranos.

Re: Last week was the hottest ever recorded – here’s why we keep smashing records

#30
> On July 3, the planet sweltered as the average global temperature reached 17.01° Celsius (62.62° Fahrenheit), the highest ever recorded, according to data from the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction. That surpassed the previous record of 16.92° C (62.46° F) from August 2016.

I am extremely curious about the error bars on these numbers. Are we really measuring the temperature in enough places around the globe with 0.01 degree resolution to make this a meaningful statement?

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