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In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

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Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#21

Post by kiba »

mdasen wrote: post #20

This somewhat assumes that the purpose of universities is to gain knowledge useful to employers. While that might be a purpose of it, universities are also screening mechanisms. This is something by people in educational economics. While I think the author has a great point that we're looking to get workers who can get the job done, that isn't necessarily how businesses hire. The benefits from education don't just co…

This is something by people in educational economics. While I think the author has a great point that we're looking to get workers who can get the job done, that isn't necessarily how businesses hire. The benefits from education don't just come in the form of increased human capital. Basically, you get bonus points for having the degree regardless of what it means to your human capital (there's a term for it that I can't come up with right now).

I believe it's called signaling.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#22

Post by imperialWicket »

Could this be extended to a need for startups or meetups that focus entirely on internet-based education?

Something akin to a formal book club with paid/volunteer instruction. I'm thinking about events like, "MyAwesomeEduStartup sponsors instructor [someone]'s coverage of [some MIT xCourse]."

It would definitely be cool as a community service or meetup event. I think it would be hard to get people to pay for this just yet, but maybe in the near future.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#23

Post by karamazov »

khafra wrote: post #16
ctdonath wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are o…

> Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). Has this ever happened? Has anyone at any wealth level ever simply stopped making money because he was upset about taxes? I hear a lot of small-time sole proprieters talk about it, but I've never heard reliable reports of it actually happening.

pg has a great essay on this: http://www.paulgraham.com/inequality.html.

A quick summary is that yes, people probably do choose not to do certain kinds of work when taxes are too high, but not in the way that Bill O'Reilly tends to advertise it - it's unlikely that someone is going to quit a high-paying job because their marginal tax rate went up a point. However, if you're undertaking an endeavor with a 5% chance of success, and a 30x tax-free payout in case of success (relative to a safe option), your expected payout is 1.5x with no taxes; 1.35x with a 10% tax rate; and 0.9x with a 40% tax rate. Whether or not you'd take the risk in the first two cases varies from person to person, but in the latter scenario, most people wouldn't bother; you'd have better expectancy at a roulette table.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#24

Post by simonsarris »

MBlume wrote: post #9
batista wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the problem of what will you do with the millions of people working in retail economy, and with the assorted collapsed buying ability of the middle to lower class. We don't just keep jobs because we need them. We also keep them because we need the distribution of wealth that they make possible --without a way to ensure that, everything collapses. There can't be a billionaire without millions of wage slav…

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

At least one prominent American, Thomas Paine (of the American revolution) advocated a guaranteed minimum income for everyone in his pamphlet Agrarian Justice, which was a real fascinating read:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agrarian_Justice

The US Social Security administration keeps a full text of the pamphlet online:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/paine4.html

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#25

Post by kiba »

ctdonath wrote: post #14
MBlume wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are o…

There are two type of people:

Those who are self-motiviated, and those who aren't. Or rather, there's a continuum. Most people aren't that self-motivated so they mostly do nothing.

Those who are, will continue to contribute to society regardless if they got paid or not.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#26

Post by JumpCrisscross »

kiba wrote: post #25
ctdonath wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Promise free food, and suddenly way more people are demanding it than the economy can support. Even if the economy can afford to give away food, society stagnates because there is no incentive to produce nor advance anything of value - be it making widgets, sweeping floors, or writing sonnets. Those who do produce the wealth unproductive others live on will decide to not bother (look up "go Galt"). We Americans are o…

There are two type of people: Those who are self-motiviated, and those who aren't. Or rather, there's a continuum. Most people aren't that self-motivated so they mostly do nothing. Those who are, will continue to contribute to society regardless if they got paid or not.

They will choose where they contribute and will modulate the risks they take as a function of pay-off, though. These aren't things you see hitting instantly, but it affects decisions at the margin and eventually nickels add up.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#27

Post by JumpCrisscross »

batista wrote: post #6

There are two candidates: one from the local state school with an appropriate college degree, a second with relevant MITx certificates of completion. Let’s say all other things between the candidates are equal. Which should be chosen? It’s true that an online education is not the same as the college experience. The candidate who went to college probably enjoyed his experience more, but how much is that experience wor…

The debt burden makes the college graduate more desperate to work, but not for any wage. There is a hard line below which the student is unable to make payments and a softer line above that allowing for various qualities of life. The key in the analysis is if the non-grad can under-price the college grad near (or even below) that hard line for long enough to get entry level experience and thus be treated as another experienced hire.

There is also something to be said for a self-starter who drives himself through an online programme and comes out with a working understanding of a topic.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#28

Post by JumpCrisscross »

batista wrote: post #7
tpatke wrote: post #2

tl;dr - I shop a lot on Amazon. Therefore we no longer need shops. We have the internet. Therefore we no longer need universities. The nice thing about "in the future" kind of statements is that they are impossible to disprove - especially when it is not specified how far in the future we are talking about. However, I think we are a long way from having gasoline delivered to your door and I always need to pop out for…

There's also the problem of what will you do with the millions of people working in retail economy, and with the assorted collapsed buying ability of the middle to lower class. We don't just keep jobs because we need them. We also keep them because we need the distribution of wealth that they make possible --without a way to ensure that, everything collapses. There can't be a billionaire without millions of wage slav…

There can't be a billionaire without millions of wage slaves

Except for where there can. Economic productivity is nowhere close to decoupling from population mass yet, but when it does, you won't need low or semi-skilled workers.

There is a careful calculus happening at every level comparing the productivity of a human versus machines (and other humans). To deny that competitive spirit, à la Greece or Italia, builds systematic inefficiencies into the economy.

At a certain point there won't be a place in the world for unskilled humans - they will be un-differentiable from a defective tool.

TL;DR This may be a problem, but will be un-avoidable. Social structures, demographics, or both will have to adapt to new realities of productivity.

Re: In the Future Everything Will Be A Coffee Shop

#30

Post by philwelch »

MBlume wrote: post #9
batista wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's also the problem of what will you do with the millions of people working in retail economy, and with the assorted collapsed buying ability of the middle to lower class. We don't just keep jobs because we need them. We also keep them because we need the distribution of wealth that they make possible --without a way to ensure that, everything collapses. There can't be a billionaire without millions of wage slav…

Guaranteed income. If the economy doesn't require everyone's labor, a bunch of people just shouldn't work, so make sure they can eat and you're done. I don't understand all this American obsession with jobs for everyone.

Jobs provide more than income, they also help with self-esteem and prevent idleness, which in turn keeps things like crime down. I think useless make-work jobs are ultimately more feasible than guaranteed income for those reasons.
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