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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#21
post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

While russia nuking themselves would be hilarious end of the current clown fiesta, I don't think they are that stupid, there is no way to explain that to public in favourable way to whichever side is left standing

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#23

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

Because it depends who wins.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#24
post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

As I understand it Wagner have already taken control of or surrounded various buildings in Moscow

It was other city far from Moscow. What I see is civilians are split in 2 camps , young ones that follow social media will probably be in one camp and old people that only follow TV will be in other camp. Let's see what is next.

And I see that a few started blaming USA, Israel and nazis for this.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#25
post #5

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

If I understood correctly, the leader was (originally?) claiming to be attacking an element in the military leadership he felt was responsible for a major friendly fire incident. It appears things have progressed from there, and it's possible or even likely that a coup is and always was the intent, but it's not _certain_.

Yeah he is being smart, positioning himself as pro Russian. Which he probably is. But doesn't not make it a coup.

Putin calling him a traitor is a death sentence. If he didn't already plan to, now his only option seems to be to move against Putin.

In don't see how they can both stay in power for much longer. One of them has to go.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#26
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. The Wagner column is 500 kms away from Moscow.

Hard to say what the videos in Moscow are of then if that’s the case.

They're likely the "anti-terrorist" measures that have been announced. Not hard to say at all.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#27
This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well.

If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#28
post #10

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#29
post #12

What is the state of decentralized betting platforms where people can place crypto on their predictions? Shouldn't that give us the best possible predictions? Everybody with expertise or inside knowledge who sees the probabilities are off would rush in, place bets and "correct" the probabilities while making a profit.

As of 11:05 cest, 2023-06-24, manifold thinks Russia will curb wagner group, and reaching moscow is at 10%. It id considered a serious attempt (95%). Expect a civil war by July 14 (70%).
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