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Three Investing Patterns That You Should Know

behavioralvalueinvestor.substack.com

21–23 of 23 posts

Re: Three Investing Patterns That You Should Know

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Figure out how to do tax loss harvesting. Figure out what a back-door IRA is. Figure out how to take out a loan on your 401(k). I'm not convinced any of those things is "smart". For example, if LT cap gains is your lowest-rate taxable income, why would you want to offset it? I make sure when I have a cap loss for the year, I have no LT cap gains and keep it to around $3K (which offsets higher-tax-rate ordinary inco…

Re: long term capital gains, the point of tax loss harvesting is to defer capital gains, so you can also defer the capital gains taxes. Re: 401(k), you are assuming knowledge of the future that nobody has. Re: extra steps to do a Roth conversion, it's something that can be done in literally under 5 minutes, at $0 cost, if you have no other money in traditional IRA accounts, so I have no idea what you're talking about…

> the point of tax loss harvesting is to defer capital gains, so you can also defer the capital gains taxes.

No, it's not. It is to recognize both taxable cap gains and deductible cap losses in the same year, to net the tax to zero. Nothing is deferred with tax loss harvesting. My point was, why waste a cap loss offsetting low-tax-rate LT cap gains, when instead with planning it can be used to offset higher-rate ordinary income.

>Re: 401(k), you are assuming knowledge of the future that nobody has.

No. The context was, "beat the tax man". Using 401k loans for tax planning is near the bottom of the list. Using 401k loans for an unexpected emergency is something else entirely.

>extra steps to do a Roth conversion

The "extra steps" again was not my point. My point was, if you have $6K aftyer tax money to invest, would you rather get $6K into your Roth, or more like $20K into your Roth by paying the tax on a conversion of pre-tax Trad IRA (which presumably you have accumulated after earnings in your first decade or two of work).

Re: Three Investing Patterns That You Should Know

#22

When economists say "_net present value_ of future returns", are they exclusively wanting to discount the inflation effects? Or is there anything else?

It depends on your view point and the model you are making. Generally it will be your cost of capital to be used as a discount rate. Say if you borrow at 10%, then you need account for that every year you need to wait for that return. A company with access to cheap capital can use a lower discount rate, and come up with higher net present value based on distant cash flows compared to a company that needs to pay a lot…

But why do I need to account for the borrowing costs in the case where there is no borrowing involved?

Because I always discount with the rate I can borrow money at, right?

It vaguely seems like there is some opportunity cost argument to be made here...? Maybe?

Re: Three Investing Patterns That You Should Know

#23
TLDR

Cyclical and company-specific problems: This pattern involves a temporary issue that depresses a company's profitability. Cyclical issues are industry-wide downturns that eventually rebound. Company-specific issues require effective management to identify and resolve the issue. These problems offer opportunities to investors who can identify them early and wait for the recovery.

Turnaround situations: These represent company-specific problems that management is actively working to solve. Investing in these can be risky, as not all turnarounds are successful, but when the key operating metrics begin to improve and the turnaround shows signs of success, it can be a good opportunity to invest.

Moderate and prolonged growth: This involves companies that consistently demonstrate moderately above-average growth rates (6% to 12%) over a long duration. This steady, long-term growth is often underappreciated by the market, providing a potential opportunity for investors.

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