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The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

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Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#21

Post by sushibowl »

atemerev wrote: post #5

I don't understand why this is a problem. We are moving through demographic transition, as the world reaches its carrying capacity for human populations. So, we are safe from overpopulation crisis, from future unemployment crises, etc.

The problem is that a significant part of the current world economic system is dependent on adequate supply of human labor. The declining population phase is especially painful as this will lead to a larger proportion of older people, which cannot supply the same amount of labor yet do consume the same amount of resources.

I don't think the solution should be to prop birth rates back up, necessarily, but we do need to consider how to deal with the economic consequences of this demographic transition, and I don't think any mainstream politician is currently willing to deal with a world that doesn't experience constant population growth.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#22

Post by NalNezumi »

atemerev wrote: post #5

I don't understand why this is a problem. We are moving through demographic transition, as the world reaches its carrying capacity for human populations. So, we are safe from overpopulation crisis, from future unemployment crises, etc.

It's considered a problem because the entire system, for most developed nations, implicitly relies on a specific demographic distribution.

Pension system in most world assumed steady supply of productive populace when it was set up. (=assumes certain young / old people ratio).

A lot of asset backed valuation (real estate etc) assumes certain consumption level, demand, and steady grow. So does inflation / investment / wealth management.

Healthcare systems (especially socialized) also have certain expectation on the distribution

If we just equally reduced population in the demographic distribution (same amount of % of men/women young/old) things wouldn't be as much of a problem.

But as it is, most countries would struggle with the transition. That's why it is a "problem" people's talk about; what is the least stressful transition strategy?

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#23

Post by throwaw12 »

> This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes.

I disagree with this statement.

Put yourself in the shoes of 25 years old and ask why don't you want to have kids?

* (economic) difficult to manage finances

* (economic) can't buy house, too expensive

* (economic) to compete with others in the workplace, I need to work >12 hours/day, can't do with kids or will be laid off.

* (sociologic) more porn, more entertainment, more fake lives through mobile phones and social networks

* (sociologic) shift in mindset: less religion, less community, more money, FIRE, travel while you are young and so on

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#25

Post by DoingIsLearning »

CalRobert wrote: post #10

Hopefully we can do this for the species as a whole and gradually find equilibrium at a more sustainable population.

It's game theory the same as pollution.

"We" can do whatever we want but if not "everyone" is doing it then the impact is fairly limited.

You would be better off having children and just consuming less than making a grave decision that impacts your whole family tree for the sake of a Humanity collective that likely will not be making the same "sacrifice".

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#26

Post by onetokeoverthe »

jphoward wrote: post #17
atemerev wrote: post #5

I don't understand why this is a problem. We are moving through demographic transition, as the world reaches its carrying capacity for human populations. So, we are safe from overpopulation crisis, from future unemployment crises, etc.

It's a problem when it happens suddenly because you end up with a 'top heavy' age distribution. The elderly pensioners:young earners ratio explodes and society security/national insurance cannot afford healthcare/pensions etc. This is compounded by what was (until recently) a steady increase in life expectancy. The really frustrating aspect of this is pensioners, who have traditionally huge voter turnouts during elec…

[dead]

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#27

Post by secretsatan »

pjc50 wrote: post #12

The other day someone was complaining about too many people in the housing thread: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35962521 The two are linked. Having children is at least partly an economic choice. People have spent decades working against "teen moms" and "single parents" and "welfare queens". Everyone is very clear that you must not have children unless you can comfortably afford to do so. And not just now, th…

It seems the thinking is shifting to making them have kids whether they want to or not.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#28

Post by louwrentius »

gsich wrote: post #16
CalRobert wrote: post #10

Hopefully we can do this for the species as a whole and gradually find equilibrium at a more sustainable population.

Overpopulation is currently not a problem for humanity.

Indeed and it has been a dog whistle for the eugenics crowd since the 70s. https://twitter.com/IfBooksPod/status/1603412908184309760?la...

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#29

Post by samwillis »

Unsurprisingly the UK birth rate has done a similar roughly 20% drop of that period:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/428262/birth-rate-in-the...

Gone from 12.6 to 10.1 per 1k people.

Anecdotal evidence, I'm in my mid 30s, a lot of our friends and family are stopping at one kid.

Re: The U.S. birth rate has fallen by 20% since 2007

#30

Post by throwaw12 »

throwaw12 wrote: post #23

> This decline cannot be explained by demographic, economic, or policy changes. I disagree with this statement. Put yourself in the shoes of 25 years old and ask why don't you want to have kids? * (economic) difficult to manage finances * (economic) can't buy house, too expensive * (economic) to compete with others in the workplace, I need to work >12 hours/day, can't do with kids or will be laid off. * (sociologic)…

* (sociologic) no trust in your partner (which is partly related to social networks and porn in some ways). they can divorce anytime, because it is easier to divorce than trying to resolve issues in the relationship, which will leave you as a single care taker of the kid, which creates 2 issues: (1) do you want to raise alone, making kid feel half family (2) can you actually raise alone with current demand at workplace

* (political) do politicians want to and policies support having kids? Like helping with healthcare when needed or should you spend 10k$ for simple things per kid?

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