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This time, it feels different

nadh.in

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Re: This time, it feels different

#21

Post by TheDong »

random78965 wrote: post #8

The haiku at the end is not a haiku, technically. As a non-business person, I imagine that folks would typically want some correctness guarantees, which seem near-impossible with today's LLMs. What kind of business use-cases do they enable? Probably a failure of imagination on my part, but I can't think of many tasks that can be done consistently well by AI that can't also be done with simpler software.

> The haiku at the end is not a haiku, technically

Yeah, haikus are 17 japanese mora, and so if it doesn't come from the mora region of japan it's not a true haiku, it's just a short poem.

> I imagine that folks would typically want some correctness guarantees

Us programmers really value correctness, but the real world doesn't actually care about it in quite a few cases. In the real world, most data comes from humans, and humans make mistakes all the time, so basically any data might have some amount of error. There's a high tolerance for a few minor mistakes here and there.

In the real world, tasks are often given to interns, and they make small mistakes all the time, but it mostly ends up being okay. If AI manages to do the same, well, that's a huge swath of tasks it can do.

> I can't think of many tasks that can be done consistently well by AI that can't also be done with simpler software

Here's the thing though: "simpler software" probably isn't actually cheaper, available, or usable. It's probably not simpler to operate since, you know, english is simpler than any DSL us programmers have come up with until now.

Re: This time, it feels different

#22

Post by [deleted] »

c1sc0 wrote: post #16
analognoise wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living. I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.

In the 70s the top 1% couldn’t even conceive of the power they’d have in their pockets one day. Today both billionaires and the rest of the world can have access to that same power. We’re all carrying the same phones in our pockets after all.

[deleted]

Re: This time, it feels different

#23

Post by zorked »

c1sc0 wrote: post #16
analognoise wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living. I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.

In the 70s the top 1% couldn’t even conceive of the power they’d have in their pockets one day. Today both billionaires and the rest of the world can have access to that same power. We’re all carrying the same phones in our pockets after all.

I will give you all the power of my phone and you give me a billion dollars.

Easy trade right.

Re: This time, it feels different

#24

Post by pcl »

haakonhr wrote: post #5

There are definitely interesting times ahead. What surprised me with ChatGPT is the impact of the interface. The quality of the responses are essential up to some threshold, but the chat interface arguably had an even bigger impact. I also remember having the same questions in my last job (in logistics) where potential customers wanted to know how we use AI. This sometimes seemed more important than whether our resul…

Yeah, absolutely. It’s astounding that Google didn’t come up with a chat-based refinement interface to a search session after all these years, instead forcing us to keep on trying again with a slightly changed query string.

Re: This time, it feels different

#25

Post by Barrin92 »

>AI technologies has probably started and large scale obsoletion of jobs may be around the corner

this has been said with the advent of computerization, the entire internet and yet here's a simple thing to look for: If this is true we will see both skyrocketing unemployment numbers and productivity growth at the same time. Until that is happening you can rest easy. One pretty trivial reason is that deep technology adoption that actually replaces professions wholesale is really slow. A lot of companies still run on ancient Excel versions and fax machines. The average employer is a small business of 15 people where nobody has an idea what Slack is.

Also one of the more sinister and clever strategies in recent times is tech companies framing their crazed hiring-spree corrections (looking at FAANG) as revolutionary AI developments

Re: This time, it feels different

#26

Post by AndrewKemendo »

fauigerzigerk wrote: post #15

>LangChain[13] enters the chat! Imagine the horror stories of automated online account blocks and Kafkaesque customer support mazes that are all too common, manifesting at a societal level. I can imagine this to be a problem. But I can also imagine it to solve a problem. Right now, customer support is often "dehumanised" and Kafkaesque because no single human has the full picture and all the permissions required to r…

You assume the fragmentation is unintentional- it’s not.

Making Organizational intelligence and knowledge management convoluted and compartmented is one of if not the core way that managers keep power over employees.

So that’s not a problem that a company wants solved.

However it might get solved via this process IF managers start extracting the information from ICs that is then absorbed by a large corporate model - then get rid of the employee

I mean if you think about it, we’re just headed toward capitalists creating the Borg

Re: This time, it feels different

#27

Post by ChrisMarshallNY »

shanebellone wrote: post #14
blowski wrote: post #4

Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…

You've also lived through many technologies that failed to achieve mainstream adoption despite demonstrating comparable levels of hype.

Segway enters the chat

https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-DGB-18306

Re: This time, it feels different

#28

Post by jprete »

swores wrote: post #10
lapcat wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.

Would you call Apple "industry leaders" pre-2000s, though? But anyway, they didn't specify all industry leaders, and it's pretty solid that many leaders were knocked off their perches.

Apple was absolutely an industry leader before the 2000s. Which leaders exactly have been knocked off their perches?

Re: This time, it feels different

#29

Post by ctrl-vvvvvvvvv »

Geez another article on the AI Spookiness? How many is that this month now?

Most of these articles border on science fiction and involve a lot of projection. While I am concerned in some ways with AI, particularly in mass surveillance and public manipulation via bots, what else can we do other than be reactive to _real_ AI applications when _deployed_? Then we start to discuss proper policy towards AI.

Until we see service sector employees being replaced the way we saw self-checkouts emerge what is the point of these articles other than some form of PR campaign?

Re: This time, it feels different

#30

Post by jprete »

analognoise wrote: post #9
lapcat wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Is that really true? The two largest corporations in the world by market cap are Apple and Microsoft, both founded in the 1970s.

Also the wealth of the average worker has been stagnant since the 70's - computers, the internet, etc came and brought tons of wealth, and didn't raise the standard of living. I've never thought about computers that way - they got here, and didn't make everyone's lives better - they just accelerated wealth concentration in the top 1%.

I’m not a fan of wealth concentration but a lot of the wealth increase at the bottom was by increasing the technological power of their possessions. While this isn’t the same as political or financial power, it’s something.
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