21–30 of 58 posts
We have very sophisticated technical forecasting algorithms. I doubt ChatGPT could improve there. Where it may be excellent though is in “sentiment analysis” which plays a role in forecasting.
I wonder why despite all of this, nearly all active money management funds perform below S&P.
So what happens when we can predict stock market with much more confidence? What kind of effects would this have on the market. Corporations having much better predictions but also the average person.
I'd personally rather see it predict the weather in some ways, for one because the insights would be more instantly tractable.
So what happens when we can predict stock market with much more confidence? What kind of effects would this have on the market. Corporations having much better predictions but also the average person.
I feel compelled to write this though it's only tangentially relevant to the article and is an adaptation of Taleb's story of stock-picking monkeys[1] from either Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan: Say you have an email list of 100000 investors, you ask ChatGPT to produce 100000 predictions and send these out to each investor. Assuming ChatGPT is as good as a coin flip, 50000 investors receive good predictions.…
I don't trust my own judgement when it comes to stocks,no way I am ever going to trust that model to get predictions.
Can ChatGPT predict all future world events and all the overall reactions to them? I'd easily pay $5 a month for that service.
I feel compelled to write this though it's only tangentially relevant to the article and is an adaptation of Taleb's story of stock-picking monkeys[1] from either Fooled by Randomness or The Black Swan: Say you have an email list of 100000 investors, you ask ChatGPT to produce 100000 predictions and send these out to each investor. Assuming ChatGPT is as good as a coin flip, 50000 investors receive good predictions.…
What sort of market prediction is decided by coin flip though? This makes more sense in the context of a binary outcome like sports betting in which you are betting on a team either winning or losing.
It's almost certainly expected. These models are argued to contain hidden models of the data they represent, and can pick up on patterns with one-shot or few-shot samples Let's recall that Bob Mercer, Jim Simons made their billions off of trading options with NLP based hidden markov models, beating everyone on Wall St for the last two decades. ChatGPT is an easy entry to this
people keep bringing this up. What evidence is there that this is his firm's method? And if so, how would it work.