Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub • Hacker News Board

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#21

Post by Alupis » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:16 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #13

DrThunder wrote: post #10

Dumb. Ford's sales are mostly their F-150. Very few people want a lightning and very few can afford them. Imagine dumping $60-$100k+ on something that's worse than it's cheaper ICE version in every way. Also, the used EV market is going to be trash. These are throw away vehicles. The only way they keep selling is government force mandates and rebates.

There are lot of F-150 buyers that want a good Electric Truck... The F-150 Lightening has a strong launch, and reservation order book... then the actual truck came out and they burned alot of good will with the Community by rushing it to market with poor performance, poor battery tech, etc. The F-150 Lightening was a BAD first showing for Ford, and it will be hard for them to recover from it with F150 owners.

There are two types of F-150 buyers - those who enjoy the idea of having a truck and those who use a truck.

F-150 Lightning seems to fulfill nearly ever checkbox wishlist item for the first group... but not much for the second group.

I wager we'll see a lot more Lightnings driving around urban/suburban areas than rural or jobsites.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#22

Post by ch4s3 » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

justrealist wrote: post #6

Yoofie wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn't matter, they are too big to fail™.

Ford is the only major automaker that didn't need (or get) a bailout.

This is technically true but they sort won in a prisoners dilemma type situation. Had no auto makers been bailed out, the shared suppliers may have all folded causing Ford to go under. So while they didn't take any direct money, the bailouts kept their upstream suppliers afloat. Ford also benefits from high import tariffs on foreign built trucks, a tariff basically designed to protect the F-150. If you check subsidy tracker[1], you're see that Ford is an enormous recipient of corporate welfare. They've received $5 billion from Michigan alone since just 2010.

[1] https://subsidytracker.goodjobsfirst.org/parent/ford-motor

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#23

Post by laweijfmvo » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:18 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #13

DrThunder wrote: post #10

Dumb. Ford's sales are mostly their F-150. Very few people want a lightning and very few can afford them. Imagine dumping $60-$100k+ on something that's worse than it's cheaper ICE version in every way. Also, the used EV market is going to be trash. These are throw away vehicles. The only way they keep selling is government force mandates and rebates.

There are lot of F-150 buyers that want a good Electric Truck... The F-150 Lightening has a strong launch, and reservation order book... then the actual truck came out and they burned alot of good will with the Community by rushing it to market with poor performance, poor battery tech, etc. The F-150 Lightening was a BAD first showing for Ford, and it will be hard for them to recover from it with F150 owners.

Wasn't the Mach-E Ford's first showing though? I haven't heard much about them...

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#24

Post by boc » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:20 PM UTC

hcurtiss wrote: post #3

Combined with the investments in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Michigan, this is "bet the company" levels of investment. I pray for Ford's sake they picked the right horse (vis-à-vis, e.g., hydrogen or ammonia).

Electric cars have something that previous "green" vehicles never had: rapid acceleration.

EVs are downright fun to drive. Sure they don't have the handling of a lightweight Porsche, but being able to walk a Mustang GT with an F-150 lightning on the highway drag race is something all the "truck guys" can brag about. That's a very important selling factor, especially from a test-drive perspective.

The biggest hurdle is fast-charging infrastructure in cities, but for the majority of Americans that live in suburban/rural areas with a garage, it won't be hard to install a charging system.

I think it's a smart bet personally.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#25

Post by laweijfmvo » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:23 PM UTC

1970-01-01 wrote: post #2

>Ford, along with its rivals, are scrambling to upgrade existing facilities and build new ones as they shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to EVs. Ford has said it wants the production capacity to sell 2 million EVs a year globally by the end of 2026. Tesla is expected to exceed Ford's 2026 milestone this year . It's safe to assume Ford is 3 years behind Tesla, and won't be able to catch them before the 20…

> According to Ford’s press release, the American automaker sold a total of 10,866 electric vehicles in the first quarter of 2023, up 41% year over year (YOY).

https://electrek.co/2023/04/04/ford-slips-below-gm-for-2-in-...

> Previously, Tesla said that it had delivered around 88,400 vehicles in the first quarter of 2020

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/tesla-tsla-earnings-q1-2020....

and just for reference, this year:

> Sales of new Tesla electric vehicles rose for the first quarter of 2023, according to sales and production figures released by the EV maker on Sunday. For the three months between the start of the year and the end of March, Tesla delivered 422,875 EVs

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/04/tesla-built-more-cars-t...

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#26

Post by vuln » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:24 PM UTC

ch4s3 wrote: post #22

justrealist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford is the only major automaker that didn't need (or get) a bailout.

This is technically true but they sort won in a prisoners dilemma type situation. Had no auto makers been bailed out, the shared suppliers may have all folded causing Ford to go under. So while they didn't take any direct money, the bailouts kept their upstream suppliers afloat. Ford also benefits from high import tariffs on foreign built trucks, a tariff basically designed to protect the F-150. If you check subsidy…

> Ford also benefits from high import tariffs on foreign built trucks, a tariff basically designed to protect the F-150.

Protect it from GM, Toyota, Rivian whom builds their Trucks in America?

No American truck buyer wants a Mitsubishi or Hyundai truck. Full stop.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#27

Post by boc » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:24 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #12

germinalphrase wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The federal mandated EV push is clearly in the works. Takes the edge off “bet the company” when you can ask POTUS to manufacture demand.

Never going to happen. That will require an Act of Congress, and Congress cant agree on what color the sky is. Even if it did, it will be marred with all kinds of overreach ripe for judical review and delay, even if it got past the court challenges, it would be subject to reversal when the power inevitably shifts again... If Ford is "bet the company" based on some kind of need for Federal Action (which would be very…

> The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (Public Law 117-169) amended the Qualified Plug-in Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D), now known as the Clean Vehicle Credit, and added a new requirement for final assembly in North America that took effect on August 17, 2022. For new electric, fuel cell electric, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles acquired, delivered, and placed in service after August 16, 2022, this final assembly requirement applies. For vehicles placed in service on or after January 1, 2023, the Clean Vehicle Credit provisions are subject to updated guidance from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and the U.S. Department of the Treasury. [1]

[1] https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/electric-vehicles-for-tax-credi...

The IRA was a bipartisan law passed by Congress. Part of it renewed a credit of up to $7500 per purchase of an EV that underwent final assembly in North America.

Additionally, California (which by all accounts sets national car standards) has passed updated regulations to phase-out the sale of ICE cars within the next 10 years. This is also a very important piece of legislation that will help the Ford decision.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#28

Post by justrealist » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:28 PM UTC

ch4s3 wrote: post #22

justrealist wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford is the only major automaker that didn't need (or get) a bailout.

This is technically true but they sort won in a prisoners dilemma type situation. Had no auto makers been bailed out, the shared suppliers may have all folded causing Ford to go under. So while they didn't take any direct money, the bailouts kept their upstream suppliers afloat. Ford also benefits from high import tariffs on foreign built trucks, a tariff basically designed to protect the F-150. If you check subsidy…

Tax credits are not bailouts.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#29

Post by rootusrootus » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:28 PM UTC

hcurtiss wrote: post #3

Combined with the investments in Tennessee, Kentucky, and Michigan, this is "bet the company" levels of investment. I pray for Ford's sake they picked the right horse (vis-à-vis, e.g., hydrogen or ammonia).

It's about a quarter of their typical yearly R&D spend.

Re: Ford to spend $1.3B to transform Canada factory into EV manufacturing hub

#30

Post by rootusrootus » Tue, Apr 11, 2023, 5:32 PM UTC

Alupis wrote: post #21

phpisthebest wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are lot of F-150 buyers that want a good Electric Truck... The F-150 Lightening has a strong launch, and reservation order book... then the actual truck came out and they burned alot of good will with the Community by rushing it to market with poor performance, poor battery tech, etc. The F-150 Lightening was a BAD first showing for Ford, and it will be hard for them to recover from it with F150 owners.

There are two types of F-150 buyers - those who enjoy the idea of having a truck and those who use a truck. F-150 Lightning seems to fulfill nearly ever checkbox wishlist item for the first group... but not much for the second group. I wager we'll see a lot more Lightnings driving around urban/suburban areas than rural or jobsites.

> There are two types of F-150 buyers

The F-series isn't the most popular vehicle in America because there are only two types of buyers. Roughly, the answer to "who is a truck person?" is "everyone."