The failure rate for smart people who don't try and don't take risks is 100%.
Pretty sure lots of smart people got rich for working at tech/finance/etc without taking large risks - if we're measuring success by wealth.
If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
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Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like the article might be addressing a slightly different question, which is "How should you distribute research funds" (and if you're smart and want to get rich) you should distribute them evenly.
I must admit I come to HN for the comments 80% of the time. Especially given the fact that most articles are now paywalled. I let the title serve as a prompt for discussion and short-form essays. Or I find an interesting thread to jump into. Sometimes a comment will make me dive into the article, or if the headline is sufficiently interesting, I'll start off with it. The headline in this case sounded like a bit of a…
I do totally feel you, but there is twitter et al for this kind of work. And if you are jumping into the comments, you know a non paywalled link is always posted!
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#23The title implies that "if you're smart, it's up to luck whether you end up rich", yet the opening of the article states that what the article is actually about is whether "the most successful people (the richest of the rich) were actually smart or just lucky". These are two very different things, completely different topics. Whether the richest dozens of people in the world deserve to be / are smart is a very differ…
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Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#24The implication is that if you are 10x richer than someone else, but not 10x smarter or more talented, then you must have just got lucky.
I disagree. Luck can certainly play a role in success, but what most people attribute to luck is just recognizing and seizing an opportunity when it knocks.
They say that 80% of success is just showing up because large numbers of people fail to do that. You often just have to be a little bit better than the competition to win the prize (and first place often pays a lot better than second place). Compound interest can make a huge difference in your retirement if you just save $1 a day more. Plenty more examples like those.
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#25One of the best predictors for financial success is your ZIP code. https://www.opportunityatlas.org/
While I have no doubt that your zip code is a good predictor of financial success, the link you provided doesn't really support the claim that it's "one of the best". As so far as I can tell, it doesn't even bother try quantifying the predictive effect, let alone comparing it to other factors. It's just a map of income by zip code.
It also wouldn't say anything definitive about luck vs skill anyway. If smart people become richer they will be able to live in nicer neighborhoods. When smart people have kids they are more likely to be smart. Which by assumption means they are more likely to turn out rich themselves. So childhood zip code certainly could correlate with future earned wealth even in a perfect meritocracy.
Obviously this is not the case in reality, factors like access to education play a big role. But disentangling everything is complicated, and I think a lot of people instead just work backwards from the parts they want to be true.
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#26One of the best predictors for financial success is your ZIP code. https://www.opportunityatlas.org/
Good thing your ZIP code is not some innate genetic quality then. It's luck where you're born, but not where you move.
If you can afford it, and you are welcomed by the indigenous of that ZIP
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#27The failure rate for smart people who don't try and don't take risks is 100%.
What's the failure rate for smart people who do try?
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#28Luck and chance is the best thought-terminating cliche out there!
It really does help, because following selective predictions, plans and strategies in an attempt to divine the future of the company, can really go to bad places. Sometimes it's easier to stop thinking about the ideal strategies and just send the work in, without thinking about it. On "luck".
This is particularly important when the design is already set in place and you just have to get it out.
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#29It's hardly "just chance". Wealth is a fitness landscape. The way to climb it is a function of talent, intelligence, perseverance, connections, leverage, charisma, mindshare, labor capital, financial capital, "right place, right time" (chance), and a multitude of other factors in an n-dimensional, m-agent game that is simultaneously cooperative and competitive. You can start at an advantage or disadvantage. You can m…
"Connections" are mostly chance as well. If you have the same attitude towards others but you weren't born in the right neighborhood or city or country, your connections potential will be severely limited.
Re: If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich? Turns out it’s just chance
#30Earlier quoted context omitted.
It seems like the article might be addressing a slightly different question, which is "How should you distribute research funds" (and if you're smart and want to get rich) you should distribute them evenly.
I must admit I come to HN for the comments 80% of the time. Especially given the fact that most articles are now paywalled. I let the title serve as a prompt for discussion and short-form essays. Or I find an interesting thread to jump into. Sometimes a comment will make me dive into the article, or if the headline is sufficiently interesting, I'll start off with it. The headline in this case sounded like a bit of a…
I really appreciate the network of conceptual connections the internet news platforms allow. This 'liberal art' of creative programming benefits from mixing thoughts.