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Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

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21–23 of 23 posts

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#21
post #10

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality? Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in content…

I’m convinced he is trolling, he posted another tweet where he says this: > This isn't your typical fractional reserve situation. The problem is that there isn't enough in the banks on a mark-to-market basis to cover withdrawals. How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid. Again, his thesis is that ban…

>How are people going to withdraw money and not put it into another bank? This guy is just saying ridiculous shit for attention, there’s no way he’s this stupid.

Maybe it goes something like this: AIUI the act of pulling money out of the banks will crash them, one by one. Along the way the government will continue to print to try to backstop it and restore confidence. The act of this just speeds up the demise. The money will get centralized to the GSIBs. But they have the same problem.

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#22
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong :) Look at the website.

FWIW it seems to be centralised, making use of a custodian, albeit it is backed by BTC as you say.

Yes, that's right. It's like USDC in that sense.

Re: Balaji bets $1M that USD will suffer hyperinflation within 90 days

#23
post #10

Just how out of touch is this guy? 50% inflation MoM within the next 90 days? Does he not understand the multiple system shocks that would need to take place for that to even come close to reality? Balaji, please - get out of your bubble. Go talk to your neighbors. They're all concerned about where to go for their kids spring break, the next episode of Mandalorian, and whether or not their bracket is still in content…

If we accept the hypothesis, based on available priors, that he's not an idiot – then what's he up to? Speculation: could he view making and losing the bet as worthwhile investment because he's holding enough bitcoin that media attention would increase concerns of hyperinflation driving bitcoin's value enough to offset the cost of losing the bet?
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