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Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

reuters.com

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Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#21
More context from another article:

> The big losses experienced by the bank are directly related to the surge in interest rates over the past year, as the company's US Treasury holdings were bought at a time when interest rates were still relatively low. Bond prices fall as yields rise.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/silicon-vall...

More general context:

- Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuries (UST). This regulation came about after the GFC.

- UST prices fall as interest rates rise

- the fall of UST prices in the last year is abnormally abrupt and deep

- banks are not required to "mark-to-market" their UST holdings if they plan to hold to maturity

- cash crunches can cause banks to sell UST before maturity, turning unrealized losses into real losses

- SVB joins Silvergate as a previously high-flying tech-related bank suffering a cash crunch and forced to liquidate bond holdings at a loss

It's hard to judge the scope of the problem that Silvergate and SVB might point to. What's clear is that unrealized UST losses on bank balance sheets can surface very quickly and lead to very ugly outcomes.

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#22

More context from another article: > The big losses experienced by the bank are directly related to the surge in interest rates over the past year, as the company's US Treasury holdings were bought at a time when interest rates were still relatively low. Bond prices fall as yields rise. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/silicon-vall... More general context: - Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuri…

Can you send me an email? Email in profile. I have more thoughts on the UST situation

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#23
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the real start of it will be after the GPT hype dies down. Everyone is racing to build/add AI things and the hype around that is preventing a freefall in the tech sector, IMO.

A bunch of overpriced tech firms isn't the kind of systemic problem that massive fraud in the 'AAA' mortgage sector was. It is, of course theoretically possible that some crooks repackaged and sold a bunch of equities as a 'safe' investment instrument to a bunch of morons, on a truly gargantuan scale. But if that has happened, nobody has heard about it.

> It is, of course theoretically possible that some crooks repackaged and sold a bunch of equities as a 'safe' investment instrument to a bunch of morons, on a truly gargantuan scale. But if that has happened, nobody has heard about it.

I'm pretty sure it has not only happened but pretty much everyone is aware of it.

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#24
post #11

If I'm not mistaken, SVB has a huge venture debt portfolio that presumably includes warrants for companies whose valuations have plummeted. Does anyone know what portion of SVB's market cap is accounted for by these warrants? My guess is that many startups are withdrawing their deposits due to this news. I wonder if SVB can cope with a significant bank run.

> I wonder if SVB can cope with a significant bank run since there are legions of bureaucrats whose entire professional life revolves around this, and there are legal stress-tests to measure this, and the banking and finance world has a huge whisper network.. maybe one-off speculation is obviously pointless and also maybe manipulative in some way?

Silvergate just failed due to a bank run.

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#25

More context from another article: > The big losses experienced by the bank are directly related to the surge in interest rates over the past year, as the company's US Treasury holdings were bought at a time when interest rates were still relatively low. Bond prices fall as yields rise. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/silicon-vall... More general context: - Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuri…

Excellent summary. The interesting thing to me comparing Silvergate and SVB is that they both got hit by a fall in value of their long-duration bonds, but they had pretty different reasons for the "run on the bank". That is, in Silvergate's case, depositors wanted their money out because people were so fearful after FTX for anything with even a hint of crypto exposure (and Silvergate had more than a hint), and in SVB's case it's because a lot of their tech startups that hold deposits at the bank actually need their money out to spend.

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#26

More context from another article: > The big losses experienced by the bank are directly related to the surge in interest rates over the past year, as the company's US Treasury holdings were bought at a time when interest rates were still relatively low. Bond prices fall as yields rise. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/silicon-vall... More general context: - Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuri…

> Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuries (UST). This regulation came about after the GFC.

Can you expand on this? What is this regulation titled?

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#27
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're a bank. They have capital ratios to maintain. If the underlying assets (the assets backing the bank), move in value, then they need to provide extra capital from somewhere. This is them securing that capital base that they need due to the change in value of their current assets (largely US treasuries and mortgage back securities- this isn't really about the value of their tech portfolio).

What are those ratios? Can I find them somewhere?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/large-bank-cap...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1097633/cet1-ratio-large...

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#28
post #10

I am not an investment or banking guy. And I’m not sure what category of activity this type of lending falls into. But wouldn’t it make more sense to write off the investment losses rather than throw more bags of money on the burning pile?

They're a bank. They have capital ratios to maintain. If the underlying assets (the assets backing the bank), move in value, then they need to provide extra capital from somewhere. This is them securing that capital base that they need due to the change in value of their current assets (largely US treasuries and mortgage back securities- this isn't really about the value of their tech portfolio).

As of March 15, 2020, bank cash reserve requirement was reduced to zero for all depository institutions.[0]

0 - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#29

More context from another article: > The big losses experienced by the bank are directly related to the surge in interest rates over the past year, as the company's US Treasury holdings were bought at a time when interest rates were still relatively low. Bond prices fall as yields rise. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/silicon-vall... More general context: - Banks are required by law to buy US Treasuri…

This means that anyone who has a lot of deposits at a US bank can potentially:

* Withdraw all their holdings, forcing the bank to realise losses in their holdings

* Buy shorts in the stock of the bank

* When the losses are announced, make lots of money from their short position.

Re: Startup lender Silicon Valley Bank to sell stock to cope with cash burn

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are those ratios? Can I find them somewhere?

https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/large-bank-cap... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1097633/cet1-ratio-large...

Thank you! I kept seeing the 0% reserve ratios and was wondering what they were actually going off of.
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