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Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

businessinsider.com

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Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#21

Post by steveBK123 »

paulryanrogers wrote: post #12
throwntoday wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They make it clear that it's not ready yet at time of purchase and there is no definitive launch date. You are by no means required to pay for it and most people don't. >encourages dangerous behavior by untrained testers on public roads There are idiots everywhere. The functionality has been locked behind their driver safety score to ensure only responsible drivers can beta test. There's a delusion that it is dangero…

Great, how do I opt out of having other people's Tesla FSD near my kids? > But is is better than most people on the road. So says Elon. Yet he won't release disengagement data. Data speaks louder than blow hards.

Sure, as long as your kids are tall enough to ride.. for some height that Elon hasn't definitively disclosed.. with some probability curve.

* 90% won't kill your kid if 4ft+

* 70% won't kill your kid if 3.5-3.99ft

* 50% won't kill your kid if 3-3.49ft.

* All bets are off below 3ft.

Also make sure they are moving enough for the car to identify them, but not too fast for the car to be unable to react.

Make sure they wear high contrast clothing and it's not too dark (or too bright & glaring) out.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#22

Post by propogandist »

The market research firm that put this together is in the business of selling expensive reports and custom consulting engagements to auto manufacturers to aid with automotive strategy.

They have a business interest to make lesser known firms appear to be the biggest threat as it makes their services more valuable. Any manufacturer can benchmark self-driving performance on the widely available Tesla, but it will be difficult to know what all the other firms are doing as they're all, comparatively, niche players.

They fact they don't even have Comma.ai on the list suggests this is a garbage tier ranking study.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#23

Post by jfengel »

theshrike79 wrote: post #18

Tesla's camera-only driving is a gamble. It has the _potential_ to be the best in the business. ...but it also takes a ton of computing power to determine how far objects are just from a moving image. A LIDAR unit would give you range + position instantly.

"Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving, though. Yeah, it does sound like the absolute minimum level of effort, but it doesn't get you anywhere. It just tells you some of the places not to go.

You need to read lane markings, locate cross streets, interpret signs, stop at traffic lights, etc. All of that requires a camera... and if you can do that, you might as well use it to not hit things.

LIDAR would be great in a belt-and-suspenders way, and it seems as if it would have saved some lives already. The other stuff is all incredibly hard; it's not ready and may never be ready. But if self-driving ever works, it would have to be able to work without LIDAR, because it has to solve the harder problem that also encompasses the things that LIDAR could help with.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#24

Post by lm28469 »

jfengel wrote: post #23
theshrike79 wrote: post #18

Tesla's camera-only driving is a gamble. It has the _potential_ to be the best in the business. ...but it also takes a ton of computing power to determine how far objects are just from a moving image. A LIDAR unit would give you range + position instantly.

"Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving, though. Yeah, it does sound like the absolute minimum level of effort, but it doesn't get you anywhere. It just tells you some of the places not to go. You need to read lane markings, locate cross streets, interpret signs, stop at traffic lights, etc. All of that requires a camera... and if you can do that, you might as well use it to not hit things. LIDAR w…

> "Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving

Until your tesla hits a stopped firetruck at 60mph, then it's a real hard part

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#25

Post by lern_too_spel »

hartator wrote: post #2

It seems biased. Tesla exaggerated claims feel scammy, but at least they have a product out there. None of these “leaders” have something you can test yourself.

Baidu, Waymo, and Cruise all offer driverless taxis right now. Tesla is far from offering such a service.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#26

Post by steveBK123 »

theshrike79 wrote: post #18

Tesla's camera-only driving is a gamble. It has the _potential_ to be the best in the business. ...but it also takes a ton of computing power to determine how far objects are just from a moving image. A LIDAR unit would give you range + position instantly.

Also assumes the current camera suite is high enough resolution, high enough dynamic range, sensitive enough at night, and positioned in correct locations to provide the data the compute needs.

Arguably that is not true still.

The issue with the camera-only model is it is very non-deterministic.

Personally, every accident I have gotten into is a result of some sort of inattention, distraction, or fatigue. Computers don't experience these things.

Nonetheless, Tesla's occasionally do unpredictable insane things like turn directly into a bollard, cross in front of a moving trolley (that it can see & has rendered on screen), run right into a firetruck, run over child size dummies, etc.

It's worse than supervising a teen driving because a teen will fail in somewhat predictable ways, generally in being either overconfident or over hesitant. You can verbally coach a human as a situation approaches. With FSD you either let it ride, intervening at last moment.. or you need to constantly step in proactively.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#27

Post by smaryjerry »

Deceptive title and report as this is ranking based on factors like like “company's vision, go-to-market and production strategies, partners, tech, commercial readiness…” Basically everything except for actual driving ability, which makes this highly subjective and biased.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#28

Post by jfengel »

lm28469 wrote: post #24
jfengel wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving, though. Yeah, it does sound like the absolute minimum level of effort, but it doesn't get you anywhere. It just tells you some of the places not to go. You need to read lane markings, locate cross streets, interpret signs, stop at traffic lights, etc. All of that requires a camera... and if you can do that, you might as well use it to not hit things. LIDAR w…

> "Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving Until your tesla hits a stopped firetruck at 60mph, then it's a real hard part

That's just it. If a Tesla can't figure out that it shouldn't drive through the big red thing, then it can't do anything at all.

I don't have any idea why that happened. It seems odd. I'm afraid I'm always a little suspicious of such stories, since so many turn out to be people lying about the auto-driving.

It's entirely possible that Tesla failed to train the things on fire engines. I rode in a Tesla the other day and was a bit surprised that it didn't note ambulances as different from other trucks. If they've failed to train them on any emergency vehicles, that's a serious problem: there are laws like "pull over for fire trucks" that it can't follow.

And again, that's not a problem LIDAR can solve. Something is very wrong if it identified a big red object as a thing it was allowed to drive on. LIDAR would solve the accident, but not the fundamental question of whether self-driving would work at all.

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#29

Post by lm28469 »

jfengel wrote: post #28
lm28469 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> "Not hitting things" isn't really the hard part of driving Until your tesla hits a stopped firetruck at 60mph, then it's a real hard part

That's just it. If a Tesla can't figure out that it shouldn't drive through the big red thing, then it can't do anything at all. I don't have any idea why that happened. It seems odd. I'm afraid I'm always a little suspicious of such stories, since so many turn out to be people lying about the auto-driving. It's entirely possible that Tesla failed to train the things on fire engines. I rode in a Tesla the other day a…

> And again, that's not a problem LIDAR can solve.

Tesla are scared of clouds and shadows and don't see big metal boxes

It's 100% something a lidar would help with. It wouldn't hit shadows or clouds but it definitely would hit a big metal box early enough to at least brake instead of accelerating

Re: Tesla's self-driving efforts rank last in study of self-driving companies

#30

Post by ahahahahah »

propogandist wrote: post #22

The market research firm that put this together is in the business of selling expensive reports and custom consulting engagements to auto manufacturers to aid with automotive strategy. They have a business interest to make lesser known firms appear to be the biggest threat as it makes their services more valuable. Any manufacturer can benchmark self-driving performance on the widely available Tesla, but it will be di…

> They fact they don't even have Comma.ai on the list suggests this is a garbage tier ranking study.

They also don't have my OS self-driving hardware and software plans. Comma.ai is a cool toy, but it's a joke in the world of real self-driving.

> make lesser known firms appear to be the biggest threat

Lesser known firms like their top four Waymo, Baidu, Mobileye and Cruise? Yeah, okay.

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