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International Security and Estonia 2023

raport.valisluureamet.ee

21–30 of 265 posts

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#21
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what happened in WW2. Nobody was willing to negotiate with Hitler because it was apparent that he was utterly untrustworthy, as evidenced by his repeated aggressions through the 30s before WW2 finally broke out. It's the same situation here. Nobody can possibly trust Putin. He's utterly untrustworthy and any treaty would presumably just be breathing space and time for Russia to continue building up its forces…

"nobody can trust Putin" - it was admitted both by Merkel, and by another high ranked politician whose name I do not remember at this moment that the goal of Minsk agreement was not to give autonomy to Donbass, which did not accept ukranian nationalism, but to buy time for Ukrainian army to rearm. So I think you are confusing things.

Merkel was widely misquoted. Here's what she actually said. Note that she referred to Ukraine getting more time in order to mature enough to maybe join NATO, not to be able to fight Russia on its own:

"I thought that the introduction of NATO accession of Ukraine and Georgia, discussed in 2008, was wrong. The countries did not have the necessary prerequisites for this, nor was it fully understood what the consequences of such a decision would have been, both with regard to Russia’s actions against Georgia and Ukraine, as well as NATO and its rules of assistance. And the Minsk Agreement of 2014 was an attempt to give Ukraine time.

Ukraine used this time to become stronger, as you can see today. The Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the Ukraine of today. An illustrative example was the battle for Debaltseve. At the beginning of 2015, Putin could easily have overrun them at that time. And I very much doubt that the NATO countries could have done as much then as they do today to help Ukraine."

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#22
post #5

[flagged]

>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) on th…

> They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?)

And to be clear here, "their stuff" is (in their eyes) everything that was once part of the Soviet Union. Most of it is currently out of reach, but not attacking Poland next is a tactical decision acknowledging EU/Nato firepower, it's not because "we don't see a reason to attack a neighbor".

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#23
post #15
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who broke the Budapest memorandum? Russia was all alone in that. It's impossible to make an agreement with Russia, as a state actor or not, while being sure that Russia won't break it the second it is beneficial for them. Claiming the contrary is pure ideology.

> It's impossible to make an agreement with Russia Other people have mentioned it bellow me, but see what Merkel herself ("accused" of being on Putin's side, funnily enough) had to say about the Minsk accords.

[deleted]

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"nobody can trust Putin" - it was admitted both by Merkel, and by another high ranked politician whose name I do not remember at this moment that the goal of Minsk agreement was not to give autonomy to Donbass, which did not accept ukranian nationalism, but to buy time for Ukrainian army to rearm. So I think you are confusing things.

Merkel was widely misquoted. Here's what she actually said. Note that she referred to Ukraine getting more time in order to mature enough to maybe join NATO, not to be able to fight Russia on its own: "I thought that the introduction of NATO accession of Ukraine and Georgia, discussed in 2008, was wrong. The countries did not have the necessary prerequisites for this, nor was it fully understood what the consequences…

Yes. You may dislike Merkel for her strategic decisions regarding fossil gas (I do), but there's no need to misquote her. That reads like a solid take to me.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#25
post #16
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone in Russia could just remove Putin it would save a lot of Ukrainian and Russian lives.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

The Russian public has proven that it can collectively switch to believing whatever needs to be believed in order to continue the war. NATO is simply an excuse to reintegrate Ukraine into the Russian empire that it was part of for very long. When Finland, also on the border with Russia, decided to join NATO, Putin said that there's no problem with that, that it was something for the Finns to decide. Fear of enemies closing in somehow doesn't play there. But Ukraine, where there are millions of ethnic Russians and a similar culture, abundant natural resources, and history that needs to be fixed, is an obvious target if you're restoring an empire.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#26

For context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#27
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

It doesn’t mean that they’d do anything about it. It’s Putin that’s eliminated anyone who can challenge him, so I assume when he goes so does the war and probably Russia as we know it.

It depends. If Russia collapses, yes. If not, you will just get someone the system accepts, and that's a Hawk, probably a Russian Nationalist Hawk. Putin is a Soviet Empire Hawk.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#28
post #5

[flagged]

Kiev and the US wouldn't have to uphold any agreements if Russia leaves Ukraine. Once they leave, the war is over. No "deal" is needed here.

Well, a new case will start then - reparations for the billions in damage, lives lost and upheaval.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#29
post #16
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone in Russia could just remove Putin it would save a lot of Ukrainian and Russian lives.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

The Russian elite aren’t the folks who were pushing for the war. Many didn’t think it would even happen / have a clue that it would happen.

I think you mistake self preservation in the form of support for a war with the will to start one and continue it.

It’s a kleptocracy, most of them just want money. Putins circle is small and most elite had no idea what was going to happen.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#30

The executive summary at https://raport.valisluureamet.ee/2023/en/executive-summary/ may be the more useful link

I really liked the conciseness of the executive summary. Good insights and points for somewhat not following the geopolitical landscape closely.
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