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U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

cnbc.com

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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#21

Post by londons_explore »

mrtksn wrote: post #16
ironyman wrote: post #4

I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. If they considered it a security threat they would've downed it before it reached continental US. Overall it's a fair resolution. It's a good political move to raise public awareness of tensions with the PRC (you'd be surprised how many people don't know). Downing it is mostly symbollic and completes the safety narrative.

It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era mil…

It is common for countries to not reveal that they have noticed something.

Revealing that you've noticed tells the enemy about your surveillance abilities.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#22

Post by mrtksn »

rationalist wrote: post #18
mrtksn wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era mil…

Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).

Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#23

Post by rationalist »

mrtksn wrote: post #22
rationalist wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there any proof that it wasn't discovered earlier? It's difficult to prove a negative. It could have been discovered earlier but monitored differently and then when it became news, monitored overtly for different reasons. If it isn't an immediate threat that you have to stop, why let an adversary know your capabilities (that you can detect them).

Well, these were reported by civilians over landlocked states and there's no indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.

The military is unlikely to report their surveillance activities to the media.

There was no overt indication that the balloons were spotted earlier.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#24

Post by mrtksn »

londons_explore wrote: post #21
mrtksn wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It would have been hilarious if those turned out to be ADS-B receivers launched by plane tracking enthusiasts but AFAIK it's confirmed that those are with Chinese origin and I find it unlikely being benign because in that case the Chinese would have informed the US about these unlike they seek escalation. I also find it fascinating that these balloons were not discovered sooner, reminds me of the stray soviet era mil…

It is common for countries to not reveal that they have noticed something. Revealing that you've noticed tells the enemy about your surveillance abilities.

I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#25

Post by cududa »

I had seen reports that the balloon was the length of 3-4 school busses but it appears that was misreported and just repeated. The PAYLOAD was the length of 3-4 school busses.

I haven’t been following this much until today/ vaguely aware as an amusing background story.

But, has anyone seen high res photos of the balloon or someone doing back of the envelope math on the size of the balloon portion?

I ask simply because a payload the length of 3-4 school busses (apparently 45 feet) would be quite large and the ballon itself much much larger than I was imagining

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#26

Post by rationalist »

mrtksn wrote: post #24
londons_explore wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is common for countries to not reveal that they have noticed something. Revealing that you've noticed tells the enemy about your surveillance abilities.

I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.

That doesn't meam that the military didn't spot it first but just didn't tell anyone.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#27

Post by mrtksn »

rationalist wrote: post #26
mrtksn wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.

That doesn't meam that the military didn't spot it first but just didn't tell anyone.

Congrats to the military then for letting the Chinese conduct surveillance in order to conceal the fact that they have employees with eyes.

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#29

Post by Vecr »

rationalist wrote: post #28
7174n6 wrote: post #14

[flagged]

What information could the balloon collect that satellite or cars on the ground not collect? Air samples?

Possibly an Operation Sea-Spray[0] like biological weapons test? Not sure how they would do it exactly, but possibly some sort of stimulant in the form of an extremely fine powder.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray

Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon

#30

Post by crtified »

zw123456 wrote: post #3
metadat wrote: post #2

Narrator: "A job well done by the US Military" I'm glad we have sufficient technology and capability to shoot down a balloon. What happens next?

The trick is to shoot it down in a way it falls slowly so you can retrieve it and see what is in it, although, I suspect our intelligence agencies have a pretty good idea already. I have no idea of course, but one thing I thought would be a Stingray, at that altitude you could intercept thousands of cell calls. I doubt that's what it is but the other thing is if it has any radio jamming capabilities or other things o…

It would be fairly rudimentary (in context!) to fit such a device with sensors against certain intrusions (e.g. loss of balloon pressure) which would then trigger near-instant self destruction of electronics.

I would be quite surprised if such a high tech spy device did not have such contingencies as part of it's design.

And suspect it's probably one of the reasons why the risk of an overland shootdown wasn't taken - that is, there's no point risking collateral damage from falling debris, when you know the device will be programmed to wipe itself of most useful information upon being physically compromised.

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