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How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

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Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#21

Sounds a lot like the effect of venture capital in the present day. > First of all, the best scientists would be removed from their laboratories and kept busy on committees passing on applications for funds Convince talented technical innovators that the best way they can apply themselves is to become a 'business person'"; then, talk to VCs and feel important by spending a lot of money instead of building something >…

Except VCs lose all their money pretty quick if they never get it right, and don't get rewarded (to the same extent) for following along with whatever is in fashion. So, there is another, more fundamental, factor there- one that drives VCs to invest in things that are thought to be under-funded but have potential.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#22
post #17
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

not an insider, but apparently it's almost impossible to get funding in (theoretical?) physics outside outside of quantum mechanics.

I assume that what you're trying to say is that it's almost impossible to get funding in fundamental physics outside of string theory , which at least might be true. There are lots of people with funding in theoretical (or at least computational) physics who aren't doing quantum mechanics, like nearly all of astrophysics, much of acoustics and fluid dynamics, nonlinear dynamics, etc.

String theory has been out of fashion for at least a decade.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#24

As one who actively participates in this parlor game, I disagree with the premise. Prior to writing proposals, I would have thought writing proposals was a huge waste of time and effort. However, we have a saying that no good idea goes to waste. When writing, you have to be clear and concise and your idea has to be good to get funding. If you don't get funded, you usually get good, useful feedback. You get better, yo…

If you write out an idea that sounds plausible and well-thought-out, it doesn't mean that reality will agree with you, it means you have become a better politician. If you have passed it through a committee, and they agree with your idea, it means you are closer to the zeitgeist, not to reality.

As any one in here knows from troubleshooting complex systems, the first seemingly sensible idea is usually wrong. To understand, you need many ideas, and to systematically update your model and disprove each hypothesis, using the evidence, and the build up in your intuition, to tune your next hypothesis. Science is more about hacking than it is about getting a well-written paper past a committee. The feedback loop shouldn't be slowed down with a political step.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#25

As one who actively participates in this parlor game, I disagree with the premise. Prior to writing proposals, I would have thought writing proposals was a huge waste of time and effort. However, we have a saying that no good idea goes to waste. When writing, you have to be clear and concise and your idea has to be good to get funding. If you don't get funded, you usually get good, useful feedback. You get better, yo…

From my perspective[1], the problem with writing everything you're going to do upfront is that it's a terrible way to develop new ideas.

Outside of academia, where you just do shit to see what happens, you can get through maybe a dozen different "idea iterations" in a month, and within a short span of time you've really got an understanding of what does and doesn't work.

In academia, where everything has to be justified, it seems like it takes decades to reach the same level of understanding that you could get independently in months.

Of course, because your're more methodical and precise you can much more certain that you haven't made as many errors, but as a human being who doesnt know what the hell you're doing you'll almost always learn more from playing with something spontaneously 50 different ways than carefully planning 5 approaches.

I feel like science as a whole would be much more effective if we split it into two separate tasks: trying to wrap our heads around new things, and then only after this has done do we begin to formalise things. The current model of pretending we know how to approach new things from day one just seems to stifle progress and prevent bad paradigms from dying.

[1] I left my PhD due to complete frustration with the system after first year - kept getting pushed towards the goal of "going through the motions" and adding to the pile of polished turds that is decoding algorithms for brain-computer interfaces. Still bitter about it 6 years later, probably will be until the day I die.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#26
post #21

Sounds a lot like the effect of venture capital in the present day. > First of all, the best scientists would be removed from their laboratories and kept busy on committees passing on applications for funds Convince talented technical innovators that the best way they can apply themselves is to become a 'business person'"; then, talk to VCs and feel important by spending a lot of money instead of building something >…

Except VCs lose all their money pretty quick if they never get it right, and don't get rewarded (to the same extent) for following along with whatever is in fashion. So, there is another, more fundamental, factor there- one that drives VCs to invest in things that are thought to be under-funded but have potential.

Honestly, it seems like trends for VCs cycle at around the same frequency as paradigms in most academic fields (on the order of around a decade). Unless the VC gets caught with their pants down right at the end of the transition, they'll probably turn a profit.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#27

> Science would become something like a parlor game. Some things would be considered interesting, others not. There would be fashions. Those who followed the fashion would get grants. Those who wouldn’t would not, and pretty soon they would learn to follow the fashion, too. Have fashions taken over? What was science like before fashions took over?

> What was science like?

The tyranny of the tenured elderly:

“A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” ― Max Planck, Scientific Autobiography and Other Papers

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#28
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except VCs lose all their money pretty quick if they never get it right, and don't get rewarded (to the same extent) for following along with whatever is in fashion. So, there is another, more fundamental, factor there- one that drives VCs to invest in things that are thought to be under-funded but have potential.

Honestly, it seems like trends for VCs cycle at around the same frequency as paradigms in most academic fields (on the order of around a decade). Unless the VC gets caught with their pants down right at the end of the transition, they'll probably turn a profit.

> Unless the VC gets caught with their pants down right at the end of the transition, they'll probably turn a profit.

Sure, it's like investing in stocks. But the incentives for VCs and academics are totally different. In academia, volume is a big part of prestige (not for everyone, of course, and to many people's dismay), whereas for VCs they're looking for that one huge disruptor, and are often willing to miss on hundreds to hit it.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#29

As one who actively participates in this parlor game, I disagree with the premise. Prior to writing proposals, I would have thought writing proposals was a huge waste of time and effort. However, we have a saying that no good idea goes to waste. When writing, you have to be clear and concise and your idea has to be good to get funding. If you don't get funded, you usually get good, useful feedback. You get better, yo…

If you write out an idea that sounds plausible and well-thought-out, it doesn't mean that reality will agree with you, it means you have become a better politician. If you have passed it through a committee, and they agree with your idea, it means you are closer to the zeitgeist, not to reality. As any one in here knows from troubleshooting complex systems, the first seemingly sensible idea is usually wrong. To under…

> it doesn't mean that reality will agree with you, it means you have become a better politician

This is true, and we're reliant on the reviewers being in touch with reality, which I gather is not always the case, though in my (limited) experience it has been. Writing proposals does feel different than writing papers and I do worry about getting too divorced from reality. I endeavor to stick to nonfiction!

The slowing of the feedback loop is only necessary if you wish to fund your work from sources that require it. Self funding through other means would have advantages.

Re: How to slow down scientific progress, according to Leo Szilard

#30

For those that accept the author's premise and thought experiment. What's the recommended alternative? Let's take a humanist approach and say the biggest problems humanity need to solve right now that we aren't doing enough on are life extension and energy generation/storage/distribution. Even 5 years ago, "AI" might've been on the list, but that seems to be booming with progress, and between CRISPR/mRNA we also seem…

Focus on the problem, not the solution.

If the problem is that our civilization is using too much energy, the solution may not be fusion power. It might be redesigning suburbs (a design problem) or making people adaptable enough to live with one another in close quarters (a social problem) or making it easier to switch houses and move close to where they work (an economic problem).

The best spur to innovation is when you are getting results. Redefining the problem you solve is one way to get that.

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