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How to avoid another world war

spectator.co.uk

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Re: How to avoid another world war

#21

Post by trasz3 »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #19
trasz3 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We had USSR split up 30 years ago, and it turned out quite well. Why assume making it happen again would result in something terrible?

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as…

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police.

(Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html)

Re: How to avoid another world war

#22

Post by yywwbbn »

dumpsterlid wrote: post #13

[flagged]

True he is a war criminal and probably an awful person in most ways. That does not mean his understanding of the situation is incorrect. And I can’t disagree with most of what he’s saying from an utilitarian point of view.

To be fair I would expect a cold blooded sociopath/psychopath to be more rational than most people (e.g. Kitchner is not unlike Hannibal Lecter in that way)

Re: How to avoid another world war

#23

Post by yywwbbn »

psychphysic wrote: post #8

I rarely agree with Kissinger but he's right as far as I can see. I'd be the first to deride Russia's military effectiveness. But consider that the vast majority of the world is against them largely on every single front. And you see why they've earned their reputation as a super power. Russia is big with plenty of fossils. They could ruin the world simply by continuing to use their fossil fuels without regard to cli…

> They could nuke themselves.

How is that helpful for them? But yeah, I agree in general

Re: How to avoid another world war

#24

Post by yywwbbn »

trasz3 wrote: post #21
hackinthebochs wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as…

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police. (Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html )

Yes, but those parts that’s potentially might want to leave Russia are not geographically and economically significant compared to the rest of Russia.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#25

Post by sfifs »

psychphysic wrote: post #8

I rarely agree with Kissinger but he's right as far as I can see. I'd be the first to deride Russia's military effectiveness. But consider that the vast majority of the world is against them largely on every single front. And you see why they've earned their reputation as a super power. Russia is big with plenty of fossils. They could ruin the world simply by continuing to use their fossil fuels without regard to cli…

actual sustainable peace requires denuclearization (and possible fragmentation) of the Russian federation because a precedent has to be set for the international order that threat of weapons of mass destruction cannot be used for annexation. Right now, by arming Ukraine, NATO is stripping Russia of conventional forces that keep the nucleae weapons safe and the federation together. Hopefully the emdgame will be achieved politically vs by first strike.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#26

Post by hackinthebochs »

trasz3 wrote: post #21
hackinthebochs wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what is called over-updating on a single event. Probably the key difference is that each soviet republic was already a discrete identity based on ethnic, cultural, and historic ties, and so the default was simply to revert to that identity. For a state with no clear discrete sub-identities, nor with enough economic or military autonomy to survive as an independent state, civil war becomes much more likely as…

Current Russia has plenty of sub-identities though. It’s the worlds last colonial empire, and the division lines are obvious to everyone there. The only thing keeping it all together is the army and police. (Cf https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1600551806429544452.html )

Informative thread, so thanks for that. This seems to be the key issue:

>Ethnicity, race and culture is not enough for the new states to work out. For them to succeed they must be able to pay their bills. Ergo, the principle of economic clusters will be at least as important for defining their borders as the ethnic or cultural one

Which one wins out? The fact that there is a conflict between economic cluster and ethnic cluster seems to strongly raise the likelihood of a civil war.

Re: How to avoid another world war

#28

Post by refurb »

jamincan wrote: post #3

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article. Kissinger's framework for understanding the world is still rooted in an outdated cold war mentality and this article seems like he is naively trying to shove the cat back in the bag and return to a paradigm that he fe…

I balk at calls for peace from Henry Kissinger, who didn't seem to have qualms at raining death on millions of innocent people for his own personal political gains. Nevertheless, I did read the article.

“War monger suggests peace”

Look at his track record! He’s wrong we need more war!

Re: How to avoid another world war

#29

Post by dumpsterlid »

yywwbbn wrote: post #22
dumpsterlid wrote: post #13

[flagged]

True he is a war criminal and probably an awful person in most ways. That does not mean his understanding of the situation is incorrect. And I can’t disagree with most of what he’s saying from an utilitarian point of view. To be fair I would expect a cold blooded sociopath/psychopath to be more rational than most people (e.g. Kitchner is not unlike Hannibal Lecter in that way)

[flagged]

Re: How to avoid another world war

#30

Post by psychphysic »

sfifs wrote: post #25
psychphysic wrote: post #8

I rarely agree with Kissinger but he's right as far as I can see. I'd be the first to deride Russia's military effectiveness. But consider that the vast majority of the world is against them largely on every single front. And you see why they've earned their reputation as a super power. Russia is big with plenty of fossils. They could ruin the world simply by continuing to use their fossil fuels without regard to cli…

actual sustainable peace requires denuclearization (and possible fragmentation) of the Russian federation because a precedent has to be set for the international order that threat of weapons of mass destruction cannot be used for annexation. Right now, by arming Ukraine, NATO is stripping Russia of conventional forces that keep the nucleae weapons safe and the federation together. Hopefully the emdgame will be achiev…

This is the problem I'm afraid.

Perhaps it's well meaning but by asking for the end of Russia you're just another war hawk voice asking for world war.

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