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Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

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Re: Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

#21

Post by chriseidhof »

willvarfar wrote: post #5

Native Client (NaCL) will power the next wave of social games. Adobe Creative Suite will support an NaCL target and Flash will be superceded whilst Adobe get a new boost of adoption on the tools front

I hope so, this would be a huge leap forward for the web. For low-level performance, Javascript doesn't quite cut it. Although it will of course become faster and faster, I don't think you can approach a low-level language.

NaCl will also enable other languages for client-side programming.

However... I doubt that Apple will include it in iOS, which might be a big hurdle for adoption...

Re: Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

#24

Post by gwern »

nyellin wrote: post #19
ivank wrote: post #10

http://predictionbook.com/ is handy for keeping track of predictions, and getting feedback about your overconfidence/underconfidence. (It generates a graph of your your confidence vs. accuracy - '90% sure' should happen 90% of the time.) Outside of specialist sites, you generally see no confidence values attached to predictions, and vagueness that makes judging them difficult or impossible. Of possible interest: http…

Don't forget InTrade. http://www.intrade.com/v4/home/

You have to get money into Intrade, the fees are bad for small sums like a hundred bucks or so, you can't do long-term predictions profitably (foregone interest/investment return eats you alive), and you can only bet on the preselected set of markets - assuming they're even liquid enough to bet on.

So for predictions like we're discussing here, PredictionBook is way better. (Sometimes using real-money doesn't make things better.)

Re: Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

#27

Post by kgutteridge »

* iPhone 5 will add NFC, which will have advertisers foaming at the mouth as Apple will link to ATV

* RIMM will be brought by a network operator for their operator friendly tech

* Existing iOS and Android publishers will be looking to other markets to get a ROI on their current outlay

* Stephen Elop will jump ship from Nokia

* Nintendo will release something on one of the existing mobile platform (probably more hoping, they should just do a high priced accessory game combo branded for Zelda/Mario for iOS)

* HTML 5 will provide "cross platform apps"

Re: Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

#28

Post by anonymoushn »

da02 wrote: post #3

* More solar energy startups go bankrupt or shutdown: http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100125720/... * Bubble in American farmland continues growing: http://blog.mises.org/19970/farmland-is-bubbleland/ * More civil unrest in China as economic landing is closer to a crash: http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iWObIptHU... * Ancestral/Paleo/Primal Lifestyle more popular, but still not mai…

* Gold at $2,500/oz.

Are you taking bets on this one?

Re: Ask HN: Your predictions for 2012?

#29

Post by herval »

* No economy bubble burst in europe

* G+ doesn't go anywhere, but doesn't shut down just yet

* More failed IPOs will make mass media call it "a different 2k bubble"

* Incubator/accelerator bubble burst (specially outside USA)

* Facebook phone

* Facebook credits for physical stuff will face-off with Paypal

* Obvious Facebook IPO

* Groupon files for bankruptcy

* Nintendo declares yet another year of losses, doesn't die (yet)

* The year of Linux on the Desktop (just kidding)

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