Is America Stealing TSMC? • Hacker News Board

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#21

Post by justaman » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:09 PM UTC

pjc50 wrote: post #18

kimmik wrote: post #13

In 20 years when tsmc has effectively transferred to america, taiwan will stop being contested and go the way of other chinese islands like hk. This is the logical solution to the us-china cold war.

I don't see why the Taiwanese would go quietly.

It will be a carbon copy of HongKongers

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#22

Post by chrsw » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:09 PM UTC

I'm an American in the tech industry (shocker). I've worked in chip design, but not chip manufacturing. I don't know very much about the manufacturing side of things but I know enough to confidently say the industry is huge and very much entagled with the global economy. It's not going to turn around overnight, or overdecade, if that's even a word.

But beyond that, I look where our country is, our values and our culture and I wonder to myself "Do we have what it takes to compete in the 21st century?".

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#23

Post by wyuenho » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:11 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #17

Is HN doing so bad these days that we now have to link to clickbait YouTube videos?

Is HN doing so bad these days that people don't even bother to check the channel or listen to the first 1 min of the video before commenting? Take my downvotes.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#24

Post by martin_a » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:12 PM UTC

refurb wrote: post #16

lma21 wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

lol, what kind of reason is that? Existing thanks to the US' military means what exactly?

Taiwan as a sovereign state wouldn’t exist without US backing. And at least reading between the lines with China, Taiwans days are numbered. They’re choice is move their factories offshore or give them up to China.

> give them up to China

I'm not sure the US would let this happen. Maybe they'd just level the factories with cruise missiles before China can get hold of them.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#25

Post by dirtyid » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:16 PM UTC

porkbrain wrote: post #5

Seems like a well sourced video. Here are some notes of what's discussed: - The factories are not joint ventures, they are fully owned by Taiwan. - Build-outs in US are not going to be the most cutting edge technology. - TSMC has ~$36bn in capital expenditures in 2022. The Arizona fab is ~$9bn a year. Majority of TSMC investment remains in Taiwan. - TSMC produces ~15m waifers a year, ~80% produced in Taiwan. Arizona…

Except video skips the primary purpose/argument of reshoring onto US soil is de-risking in case of potential PRC-TW scenario. In which case US will likely nationalize these fabs, aka stealing, for even the small but critical strategical capacity they fill. The more accurate assessment is America is setting up contingency to steal some of TSMC in event of PRC trying to steal most of TSMC. Or that Chang wasn't exactly enthused to build Arizona fabs, and even now question the viability with subsidies. Like how would one attribute intentions of powerful party A persuading/coercing weak party B to build likely loss making venture against B's desires, out of the way in A's backyard, on the premise that one day, A will confiscate venture from B.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#26

Post by lvl102 » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:21 PM UTC

mrtksn wrote: post #14

lvl102 wrote: post #4

The tech is mostly from US funded research. Taiwan itself wouldn’t even exist without US military. Give me a break.

Lots of US funded research is also globally funded because US attracts lots of talent and that talent costs quite a lot to educate. If there weren't the immigrants, the US wouldn't be the tech and science superpower that it is today. Kudos for providing the opportunities for these brilliant people, great success through the year of executing programs for bringing Nazi scientists, Soviet scientists etc. but if we are…

You sound like someone who lives in the 50s. US higher ed is not funded globally at all. In fact US indirectly funds institutions abroad because many of the top academics were trained in the US especially in sciences.

And just why do you think all these brilliant people leave for the US? Let’s think about that for a moment.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#27

Post by luma » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:21 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #17

Is HN doing so bad these days that we now have to link to clickbait YouTube videos?

Asianometry is a pretty well sourced and researched channel focused on this exact field. I don't know that it's fair to call this "clickbait", the title is in response to a growing meme around Taiwan and the video makes the case to refute the point.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#28

Post by blueflow » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:23 PM UTC

porkbrain wrote: post #5

Seems like a well sourced video. Here are some notes of what's discussed: - The factories are not joint ventures, they are fully owned by Taiwan. - Build-outs in US are not going to be the most cutting edge technology. - TSMC has ~$36bn in capital expenditures in 2022. The Arizona fab is ~$9bn a year. Majority of TSMC investment remains in Taiwan. - TSMC produces ~15m waifers a year, ~80% produced in Taiwan. Arizona…

I think "Waifer" is a spelling mistake, its Wafer.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#29

Post by farisjarrah » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:28 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #17

Is HN doing so bad these days that we now have to link to clickbait YouTube videos?

The video title is based on real sentiment from people in Taiwan. Asianometry is a treasure trove of easily accessible information on semi-conductor manufacturing, and business in Asia. I highly suggest you watch the video before passing judgement. Asianometry videos are no nonesense, no filler, and very eloquently explain current and past events and businesses.

Re: Is America Stealing TSMC?

#30

Post by ChuckNorris89 » Fri, Dec 09, 2022, 1:32 PM UTC

CyanLite2 wrote: post #17

Is HN doing so bad these days that we now have to link to clickbait YouTube videos?

Asianometry does some of the best, most in depth research for any YouTube channel I've watched.

I'm more convinced you didn't watch the video than the video being click-bait.