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Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

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Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#21

Post by nickd2001 »

BigHatLogan wrote: post #11
lmm wrote: post #8

Meh. Maybe not so many people should be trying to be outliers. Maybe society would be better off if we stepped back from the always-on, up-or-out culture and accepted that most people are average and (rightly!) value consistency more than upside. (Is it unfair to immediately wonder if the article was written by someone with an upper-class upbringing, who's always had access to a safety net that most people don't?)

I hope this doesn't come off as hostile, but you're on a forum that is hosted by the most renowned startup incubator. This is basically a bastion for the "always-on, up-or-out culture" you're weary of. It's completely acceptable to be weary of it, but I find this comment as odd as going to an NBA forum and expressing exasperation over NBA talk.

'This is basically a bastion for the "always-on, up-or-out culture" you're weary of'. True, but HN also is frequented by people simply interested in tech, and interested to see comments from silicon valley and elsewhere they're building "disruptive" tech right now. And some from academia. Some people may feel addicted to challenging Elon-Musk-school-of-work-ethic type comments. Personally I feel drawn to respond to people that seem unhappy with their lot, often from comparing themselves to the always on up-or-out crowd. Getting a friendly response from people that "don't buy into that s**" might hopefully help them.

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#22

Post by nickd2001 »

ZephyrBlu wrote: post #17
BigHatLogan wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I totally agree, but this is less true for people who are already on this forum, who are presumably interested in startups (since this is a forum owned by Y Combinator of all organizations). If this was being posted routinely on the NYTimes Food and Recipes page, I would agree with you wholeheartedly. But that sort of content is, I assume, what people visit this website for. Imagine going to a weightlifting forum and…

The difference is that the unfair advantages a lot of people who start successful startups have are not easily attainable. There is no comparison here with a gym membership or having limbs. Both of those are many orders of magnitudes easier than say, getting accepted into Harvard or passing an interview loop at Facebook. I read very few startup stories that I can actually relate to.

To add to this, even in a level playing field where founders lacked rich parents or Harvard, they'd still stand on the shoulders of those who previously developed tech that can now be exploited for profit. e:g dot-com boom was made possible by development of the internet itself with public money. Not to mention individuals' mental ability at certain types of problem solving, which isn't equally distributed. And large element of luck, being in the right place at the right time. So, while hard work and entrepreneurship, so long as done ethically, should be celebrated and rewarded, at the same time people who are "average" should not in any way denigrate themselves. Also, some big successes in startups come at the expense of everyone else. AirBnB being a classic example where some people have benefitted massively but at the expense of neighbourhoods, community, ability of locals to afford housing etc.

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#23

Post by SamvitJ »

Could there be a confirmation bias to this observation?

You distinctly remember the times you had an outlier belief which you ignored to your detriment, but tend to forget all the foolish-seeming ideas you had which were indeed very much foolish when taking stock of the past.

I think the opposite advice might be even more useful for many, many people: be more scared of overconfidence, because you know less than you think. Research on cognitive biases and the underperformance of "experts" in many fields tends to support this view.

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#25

Post by cainxinth »

SamvitJ wrote: post #23

Could there be a confirmation bias to this observation? You distinctly remember the times you had an outlier belief which you ignored to your detriment, but tend to forget all the foolish-seeming ideas you had which were indeed very much foolish when taking stock of the past. I think the opposite advice might be even more useful for many, many people: be more scared of overconfidence, because you know less than you t…

Plus hindsight bias and survivorship bias

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#26

Post by twelve40 »

rektide wrote: post #2

Reasoning based on fear has taken over far too great a mindshare. We continually convince ourselves of our rightness righteousness and betterness by down-putting the hopeful, the ambitious, the would-tries. There's a new church of doubt in our fellow man & willing against the try. This post sets a nice positive message I long to hear, about trying, trying hard, about swinging for great.

I think the opposite, reasoning based on delusions seems pretty prominent recently. You know, like ftx and all...

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#27

Post by BigHatLogan »

nickd2001 wrote: post #21
BigHatLogan wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope this doesn't come off as hostile, but you're on a forum that is hosted by the most renowned startup incubator. This is basically a bastion for the "always-on, up-or-out culture" you're weary of. It's completely acceptable to be weary of it, but I find this comment as odd as going to an NBA forum and expressing exasperation over NBA talk.

'This is basically a bastion for the "always-on, up-or-out culture" you're weary of'. True, but HN also is frequented by people simply interested in tech, and interested to see comments from silicon valley and elsewhere they're building "disruptive" tech right now. And some from academia. Some people may feel addicted to challenging Elon-Musk-school-of-work-ethic type comments. Personally I feel drawn to respond to p…

Yeah, fair enough. That is a good point. Well said.

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#28

Post by closeparen »

VC firms expect the vast majority of their portfolio companies to fail. Being skeptical of a startup’s prospects does not in any way represent a break from the VC’s expert opinions. They are playing the whole field. You’re going all in on one company, a completely different thing.

Re: Be Less Scared of Overconfidence

#29

Post by warinukraine »

> (...) early-stage startups (...)

> (...) efficient market hypothesis (...)

Classic case of "just read a new idea and I'll apply it everywhere".

In addition of everything else wrong with this post: No, you can't reach reliable conclusions about startups by reaching to efficient market hypothesis.

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