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How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

tedgioia.substack.com

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Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#21

Post by bentt »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #3

I believe the analysis and the lesson learned are completely wrong. The real reason for Facebook's decline is that Apple knee-capped their advertising. The lesson in this is: don't let another company be able to get between you and your customers. Google took this lesson to heart some years back, hence the massive investment in Chrome browser and Android so that no company could come between Google and its users.

You're not wrong that Apple knee-capped them. The thing that made their stock price dive was all of the applause.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#22

Post by listenallyall »

oblib wrote: post #19

My wife's grandfather, Theodore Houser, was the CEO of Sears in the `50s. He wrote a book called "Big Business and Human Values". The last CEO had nothing close to "Human Values", and Sears didn't last long after they started ignoring his advice. Elon Musk would do well to read that book.

Apples to apples? Mr. Houser didn't have to compete against Amazon, Target, Wal-Mart, specialty retailers (Home Depot, Best Buy), clothing discounters (TJ Maxx, Kohl's), any internet stores, or any suppliers selling Chinese-made goods.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#23

Post by mulligan »

datalopers wrote: post #12
mulligan wrote: post #10

this guy might want to include data about facebook user number, dau / mau, instead of stock numbers. facebook itself, not even counting insta or whatsapp, continues to grow. it is hard to claim a "collapse" if the user base is growing

Meta’s userbase is growing in regions which do not currently monetize well. Notably Asia-Pacific and “Rest of World” which monetize at 1/12th to 1/16th of a US/CA user. The growth rate in US/CA is basically flat while those regions are 3-5% YoY.

FB MAUs in US/CA are most of the population: https://www.statista.com/statistics/247614/number-of-monthly...

and still growing. it is isn't unreasonable for that growth to be slower than less penetrated regions.

but that still doesn't produce a conclusion of collapse

that facebook has such a high percentage of users in the most profitable parts of the world, doesn't connect with the posts claim that users are leaving

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#24

Post by foobarbecue »

notpachet wrote: post #7

This article operates on the premise that companies can keep their users around indefinitely, if only they treat them with respect. I am not sure that's true in the case of social media companies (and probably other types of companies, too). I think there's an element of fashion to it. Companies go out of fashion. If you're in Gen Z, it's more fashionable right now to use Tiktok than it is to use Instagram. It's stil…

Yep, this is it. When I ask my younger friends why they prefer IG over FB the reaction is "ew, Facebook? That's so over." The cycle is repeating now with IG becoming uncool in favor of TikTok.

If I were a social media mogul, my strategy would be to relaunch the same platform under a different name every 5 to 10 years. Put some new css in there, release some flashy ads, and users will think it's a different thing. Most IG and Whatsapp users are shocked when you tell them those apps are owned by the same company as FB.

On the other hand, there are some platforms so solid that they seem to transcend fashion. I'm thinking YouTube.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#25

Post by hedgehog »

RcouF1uZ4gsC wrote: post #3

I believe the analysis and the lesson learned are completely wrong. The real reason for Facebook's decline is that Apple knee-capped their advertising. The lesson in this is: don't let another company be able to get between you and your customers. Google took this lesson to heart some years back, hence the massive investment in Chrome browser and Android so that no company could come between Google and its users.

Apple may have been a factor but I think the bigger issue is FB's growth narrative got weak and their valuation was based on expectations of growth. The new story is that they are no longer attracting young, affluent users that as a cohort represent the future ideal advertising target and cash cow for the company. Repeatedly other platforms (Instagram, WhatsApp, TikTok) have shown they can grow rapidly while FB's in-house copies keep failing. More recently antitrust concerns have clipped the wings on FB's primary defense against external competition (early acquisition). Their big bet on the metaverse seems like a big boondoggle that doesn't have legs. Losing cross-app spyware may hurt FB but I don't think it's the biggest reason why the public market have lost faith in FB's growth prospects. They still trade at a PE of around 11 so it's not all doom and gloom.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#26

Post by syrrim »

saurik wrote: post #4

> I can’t imagine a single Spotify user ever saying: “Please make sure you never tell me the members of the band.” Does Spotify even know who was in the band? Is that metadata anyone attached to the tracks? Sure: if it wasn't they could have asked for it, but if they already have a ton of music without that metadata is the feature ever going to be useful as an afterthought? Does any other music platform have this fea…

They could pull it from wikidata pretty easily. This would cover all major bands and many more minor ones.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#27

Post by saurik »

syrrim wrote: post #26
saurik wrote: post #4

> I can’t imagine a single Spotify user ever saying: “Please make sure you never tell me the members of the band.” Does Spotify even know who was in the band? Is that metadata anyone attached to the tracks? Sure: if it wasn't they could have asked for it, but if they already have a ton of music without that metadata is the feature ever going to be useful as an afterthought? Does any other music platform have this fea…

They could pull it from wikidata pretty easily. This would cover all major bands and many more minor ones.

Oh, maybe for like, really organized groups. But even those change over time. Most of the musicians I know just work with random one-off hires when they get around to recording a track.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#28

Post by headsoup »

foobarbecue wrote: post #24
notpachet wrote: post #7

This article operates on the premise that companies can keep their users around indefinitely, if only they treat them with respect. I am not sure that's true in the case of social media companies (and probably other types of companies, too). I think there's an element of fashion to it. Companies go out of fashion. If you're in Gen Z, it's more fashionable right now to use Tiktok than it is to use Instagram. It's stil…

Yep, this is it. When I ask my younger friends why they prefer IG over FB the reaction is "ew, Facebook? That's so over." The cycle is repeating now with IG becoming uncool in favor of TikTok. If I were a social media mogul, my strategy would be to relaunch the same platform under a different name every 5 to 10 years. Put some new css in there, release some flashy ads, and users will think it's a different thing. Mos…

I think youtube just has so much content that is nowhere else that it can't go 'out of fashion.' It's a massive public archive of creative and educational content which you can't just discover on another platform.

It'd take a very long time for something (like rumble/vimeo) to catch up or an amazingly large stuff-up at Youtube to drive people away.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#29

Post by dchuk »

foobarbecue wrote: post #24
notpachet wrote: post #7

This article operates on the premise that companies can keep their users around indefinitely, if only they treat them with respect. I am not sure that's true in the case of social media companies (and probably other types of companies, too). I think there's an element of fashion to it. Companies go out of fashion. If you're in Gen Z, it's more fashionable right now to use Tiktok than it is to use Instagram. It's stil…

Yep, this is it. When I ask my younger friends why they prefer IG over FB the reaction is "ew, Facebook? That's so over." The cycle is repeating now with IG becoming uncool in favor of TikTok. If I were a social media mogul, my strategy would be to relaunch the same platform under a different name every 5 to 10 years. Put some new css in there, release some flashy ads, and users will think it's a different thing. Mos…

YouTube lacks a personality like Facebook/Instagram have. It just “is”.

It’s closer to infrastructure than any other social platform out there. Kind of blends into the background as you browse it.

Also, there’s a better separation of the content from the vitriolic comments than other platforms. I use YouTube all the time, and literally never read comments. Instagram/Facebook, the comments are integral to the consumption pattern, showcasing just how very fuckin awful almost everyone is when they can be internet tough guys vs basically decent human beings in real life.

Re: How web platforms collapse: The Facebook case study

#30

Post by oblib »

listenallyall wrote: post #22
oblib wrote: post #19

My wife's grandfather, Theodore Houser, was the CEO of Sears in the `50s. He wrote a book called "Big Business and Human Values". The last CEO had nothing close to "Human Values", and Sears didn't last long after they started ignoring his advice. Elon Musk would do well to read that book.

Apples to apples? Mr. Houser didn't have to compete against Amazon, Target, Wal-Mart, specialty retailers (Home Depot, Best Buy), clothing discounters (TJ Maxx, Kohl's), any internet stores, or any suppliers selling Chinese-made goods.

Sears had pretty much the 1st crack at creating an "Amazon" and blew it. I mean, it's fair to say the "Sears Catalog" was the blueprint for that.
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