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Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

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Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#21
post #17
post #7

The term is named after American policy analyst Joseph Overton, who stated that an idea's political viability depends mainly on whether it falls within this range, rather than on politicians' individual preferences. According to Overton, the window frames the range of policies that a politician can recommend without appearing too extreme to gain or keep public office given the climate of public opinion at that time.

The window is bifurcating. The political left and right have moved so far apart that "middle ground" ideas appeal to very few and the extremes have more viability.

There basically is no political left to speak of and there hasn’t been one for decades. There is a bifurcation, but it’s largely a drift between a broadly rightward shift across political mainstreams on the one hand, and an increasingly contentious concept of who is allowed to exist and to what extent they can exist unperturbed.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#22
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also worth mentioning that the window doesn't have a set direction in the short term. It can move back and forth, expand, and shrink fairly arbitrarily. It also largely depends on the spectrum parameters specified. I don't believe in it as a concrete, measureable thing; I do believe in it as a signal for disposition over time.

Over the long term, though, it moves left. Opinions in 1800 were far further right than far-right of today. It’s one reason the old tend to be conservative. They were born at a fixed slice of the Overton window, which moved left, carrying them right.

> Over the long term, though, it moves left. Opinions in 1800 were far further right than far-right of today.

1800 is a weird baseline to pick, but even so I’m skeptical.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#23
post #7

The term is named after American policy analyst Joseph Overton, who stated that an idea's political viability depends mainly on whether it falls within this range, rather than on politicians' individual preferences. According to Overton, the window frames the range of policies that a politician can recommend without appearing too extreme to gain or keep public office given the climate of public opinion at that time.

I can't help but think of feynman's caltech speech about "cargo cult science" with respect to the charge of an electron.

We have learned a lot from experience about how to handle some of the ways we fool ourselves. One example: Millikan measured the charge on an electron by an experiment with falling oil drops, and got an answer which we now know not to be quite right. It's a little bit off because he had the incorrect value for the viscosity of air. It's interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of an electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than Millikan's, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn't they discover the new number was higher right away? It's a thing that scientists are ashamed of--this history--because it's apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan's, they thought something must be wrong--and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number close to Millikan's value they didn't look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that. We've learned those tricks nowadays, and now we don't have that kind of a disease.

https://sites.cs.ucsb.edu/~ravenben/cargocult.html

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Over the long term, though, it moves left. Opinions in 1800 were far further right than far-right of today. It’s one reason the old tend to be conservative. They were born at a fixed slice of the Overton window, which moved left, carrying them right.

> Over the long term, though, it moves left. Opinions in 1800 were far further right than far-right of today. 1800 is a weird baseline to pick, but even so I’m skeptical.

1900 works too. I was omitting an explicit mention of slavery, but a woman’s right to vote might be a better base.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#25
post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

I had just started reading Mearsheimer's book (The Tragedy of Great Power Politics). It's quite depressing to say the least. My plan is to finish it and then read a critique or a competing viewpoint. What would you recommend as a follow-up as a critique of Mearsheimer?

Thanks in advance!

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#26
post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

I had just started reading Mearsheimer's book (The Tragedy of Great Power Politics). It's quite depressing to say the least. My plan is to finish it and then read a critique or a competing viewpoint. What would you recommend as a follow-up as a critique of Mearsheimer? Thanks in advance!

Timothy Snyder is a historian who has written on extensively on the history of Ukraine (Bloodlands) and Putin (The Road to Unfreedom).

I'm not familiar with The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, but Dr. Snyder makes some strong counterpoints to the Mearsheimer way of thinking on Ukraine in this [1] podcast and others.

He has also given a timely history on modern Ukraine [2], but I have not got around to listening to it.

[1] https://www.wbur.org/onpoint/2022/10/25/historian-timothy-sn...

[2] https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLh9mgdi4rNewfxO7LhBoz...

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#27
post #17
post #7

The term is named after American policy analyst Joseph Overton, who stated that an idea's political viability depends mainly on whether it falls within this range, rather than on politicians' individual preferences. According to Overton, the window frames the range of policies that a politician can recommend without appearing too extreme to gain or keep public office given the climate of public opinion at that time.

The window is bifurcating. The political left and right have moved so far apart that "middle ground" ideas appeal to very few and the extremes have more viability.

Since America hasn't had a political left in... let's say 50 years. What's an example of a middle ground idea that doesn't appeal anymore?

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#28
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The window is bifurcating. The political left and right have moved so far apart that "middle ground" ideas appeal to very few and the extremes have more viability.

Since America hasn't had a political left in... let's say 50 years. What's an example of a middle ground idea that doesn't appeal anymore?

I would say that any sense of sane immigration reform is completely unrealistic right now.

By "sane" I specifically mean "acknowledges the shortcomings of the current system, at the same time as we acknowledge our dependence on foreign labor"

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#29
post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

> It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything.

This is a great summary of something that annoys me a lot.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#30

If you want to see a real world attempt at an overton window shift look no further than the actions of useful idiot [1] Kathy Griffin and her severed head controversy. [2] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot [2] https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/comedy/kath...

Did Twitter suspend Griffin for that photo of her with Trumps decapitated head?
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