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Some companies find only humans can do the job

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Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#22

Still the best solution is to combine robotics with humans. Humans are still infinitely flexible and much easier to dispose off than an expensive robot /sarcasm.

A new form a dystopian science fiction: one where robots have better labor rights than humans.

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#24
post #9
post #6

...yet. I'm sure things will look very different 20-30 years from now.

What do you expect to be better in 30 years? We have NOW insane computing power, cool stuff like insane size FPGAs and super fast GPUs. Mechanical parts work with fraction of micron accuracy. And yet we have millions of workers picking simple shaped objects manually every day around the world.

I agree with your sentiment but just a nitpick - tasks considered "easy" by humans aren't necessarily easy to automate and vice versa. Eg. beating a computer at recognizing trash vs beating a pocket calculator at 6734100522 * 714261898941.

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#25
post #6

...yet. I'm sure things will look very different 20-30 years from now.

Strangely enough a former co worker at the Angelika is now doing video archives. In a local interview they asked him the most interesting thing he’s found so far. His response:

“You’d be surprised to see we’re still debating and arguing over the same issues we had in the 60s, 70z, 80s…”

Basically same shit different generation - so far.

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#27
Automation is capital intensive to set up, so it may take years for it to pay for itself. This delays adoption considerably for smaller businesses. Hair cutting is one of those jobs that resists automation. Same for burger flipping. It's not as if salons and restaurants can afford expensive robots to automate those tasks. Customer support automation may mean lost business due to angry customers.

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#28

Automation is capital intensive to set up, so it may take years for it to pay for itself. This delays adoption considerably for smaller businesses. Hair cutting is one of those jobs that resists automation. Same for burger flipping. It's not as if salons and restaurants can afford expensive robots to automate those tasks. Customer support automation may mean lost business due to angry customers.

Hah! Never mind the capital overhead, it might be a while before customers trust a scissors-wielding robot with their head!

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#29
post #9
post #6

...yet. I'm sure things will look very different 20-30 years from now.

What do you expect to be better in 30 years? We have NOW insane computing power, cool stuff like insane size FPGAs and super fast GPUs. Mechanical parts work with fraction of micron accuracy. And yet we have millions of workers picking simple shaped objects manually every day around the world.

> We have NOW insane computing power, cool stuff like insane size FPGAs and super fast GPUs.

They are still slow, compared to human brains. To compete with biological neurons, computers may have to be 100x-1000x faster.

Your phone is massively more powerful than a DEC Alpha based workstation from 1992 and it can fit in your pocket. Moore's law may be slowing, but I still expect compute to be 100x-1000x performance/$ and performance/W in 30 years.

Software is already on its way into a paradigm shift, where it will increasingly be written by AI (look at the state of github copilot). Hardware (both eletronic and mechanical) design will continue to see similar developments.

At some point, spot-like robots will reach a price where it starts to become affordable by some households. That moment will be similar to the appearance of PC's in the 80s or phones in the 2000x. As the market explodes, prices will drop really quickly.

And even before that, militaries will drive development. Drones (ie robots) are already becoming a key factor in the war in Ukraine.

Battery tech is the main limitation at the moment. Though I do expect significantly better energy density over 30 years, and reduction in power consumption should make up the rest.

So basially, I expect robots will have a development over the next 30 years similar to how PC's developed from 1980-2000 or phones developed from 2000-2020, if not more.

Re: Some companies find only humans can do the job

#30
post #13
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What do you expect to be better in 30 years? We have NOW insane computing power, cool stuff like insane size FPGAs and super fast GPUs. Mechanical parts work with fraction of micron accuracy. And yet we have millions of workers picking simple shaped objects manually every day around the world.

It's still cheaper to exploit human laborers to pick those simple objects. There will be a reckoning once capitalism runs out of people to exploit.

> There will be a reckoning once capitalism runs out of people to exploit.

That's just a different way of saying there will never be a reckoning :-/

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