Algorithms predict sports teams' moves with 80% accuracy [pdf]

The ball is moving fast enough that for at least some moves the previous person hasn't yet touched the ball 2 seconds before, you cannot block a spike if you are not in the air before the spiker touches the ball. The spiker of course will be watching you and change how the ball is spiked based on that (if you don't make any attempt to block at all the spiker will drive the ball hard into the ground, if you do it is either find the hole in your defense to spike through, or tip the ball over the blocker making the return a lot easier)

I only played at a college class level (I wasn't the best in my class, not a pro for sure) - yet I can do the above.

Betfair works like a market - you are not betting against the house, but rather against other bettors. Betfair takes a commission from each matched bet. They would probably allow it - More matched bets means more profit for them.

>The house tends not to like consistent winners.

Not exactly. So long as the house overall comes out ahead they love a consistent winner: people who lady luck smiles on tend to brag about how good they are not only bring in their friends, but also coming back to lose it all next time.

They can do this in a number of ways, some of them are because the game is setup so the house is the winner, others the house takes a fee off the top.

For the first we have games like blackjack where the house has a consistent winning strategy. They ban counting cards because this is a way someone can be a consistent winner instead of them. While there may be some skill in the game, no amount of skill will make you are winner, only luck.

For the second we have things like a sports betting where the they take a small commission but otherwise are not even playing the game. In these games they love consistent winners as such people tend to brag and bring in more people thinking they can do the same. If you are a great poker player it is worth paying the commission as the house provides security that the person you are betting against isn't cheating (marked deck, won't actually pay his bets...)

Humans struggle with it too. I would be interested in the study you suggest. NFL defense work hard to mask their schemes.

> Betfair ... They would probably allow it

I'm not a lawyer, but out of curiosity I did a quick search through their T&Cs.

It seems to be a bit of a grey area.

Section 3 ("APIs") sort of allows it in a half-assed wording kind of way:

     - *"Other than your permitted use of Betfair's endorsed API service (referred to above), the use of programmes or software designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters (i.e., "robot" players) is not permitted on any Games"*

Section 18 ("Bots") certainly seems to allow it:

     - *"18.10 Some customers make use of programs designed to automatically place bets within certain parameters set by them (e.g., to back or lay at a certain price) ("bots"). These bots may be active in any or all Markets at any time and you should not assume that you can place bets on quiet Markets that will not be automatically matched simply because the Market otherwise appears quiet. Additionally, bot users should be aware that bots might be prone to exploitation by other customers. Users of these programs do so entirely at their own risk."*

Meanwhile, section 12 ("suspicious betting") seems to be very much against the idea:

     - 12.1 For the purpose of this clause 12, "suspicious betting" refers to where we have reasonable grounds to believe that a Bet or a number of Bet have been placed in suspicious circumstances. Suspicious betting shall include, but not be limited to:
     - 12.1.4 where we have reasonable grounds to suspect that a Bet or a string of connected Bets were placed robotically, by automated means, or otherwise than through the Account holder placing each Bet manually via their Account;
     - 12.1.5 where we reasonably believe that you have used unfair external factors or influences connected with the event(s) the subject of any Bet(s);
     - 12.2 If we discover or have reason to believe that you have participated in any of the activities described in clause 12.1 (which, as stated in clause 11.2, constitute "Prohibited Activities"), we shall have the rights set out in clause 13.

"Rights as set out in clause 13" being "Suspension or Termination of Your Account by Us".

Clear as mud, really.