Do we not have better things to do as humans than blow ourselves up. seriously?
And why is this not higher... Seriously
Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
21–30 of 123 posts
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#22Another possible outcome, not present on the OP's state chart, is "USSR": Russia collapses for internal reasons.
Or “Russian oligarchs put plutonium in Putin’s coffee”.
How long will the rich and poor of Russia put up with the cost of this war?
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#23I agree with most of the post/diagram, except the last step. There's a joke that appeared early this year: a Russian had an accident and fell into a coma before the war, and just wakes up. He's asking for news, and the nurse tells him that it's bad: they're in a war with NATO, and they already lost 60k people, 2000 tanks and 500 planes. "And NATO?", he asks. "What are their losses?". The nurse answers: "Ah, NATO hasn…
That's a truly realpolitik analysis, but it still may leave Putin in great danger. The US has apparently warned Putin of the retaliation that awaits if he goes nuclear. Sinking the black sea fleet has been mentioned as a possibility. That means that all the sailors on those ships are sitting ducks, to be annihilated in their thousands in seconds, should Putin decide to go nuclear. Surely, even in Russia, the blowback…
First thing to do when threats are made is to decide whether they are credible.
The sinking of the Black Sea Fleet would be a huge escalation and a declaration of war, not to mention not a smart thing to announce your plan in advance.
To me it's the same as when Russia makes big threats. It's a war of words but with no plan for actual action.
Edit:
It seems to me that the US are trying to corner Russia into escalation and warning of potential Russian escalation as the same time.
Russia has made a mistake in invading Ukraine but the US seem to be the force behind making the situation worse and worse since, possibly with the objective of regime change in Russia. Considering the US's track record that should make everyone worry.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#24Another possible outcome, not present on the OP's state chart, is "USSR": Russia collapses for internal reasons.
Or “Russian oligarchs put plutonium in Putin’s coffee”. How long will the rich and poor of Russia put up with the cost of this war?
I think it's more likely that he retires to the country.
Precedent matters if you may be on the other end of it in months/years.
Also retirement to the country is not forever, which again is useful in political struggles to come.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#25Do we not have better things to do as humans than blow ourselves up. seriously?
It's scary that billions of lives are in the hands of probably just a few thousand people and hundreds of millions in even less hands.
I wish people in the U.S. would realize the increasing danger we find ourselves in as power gets more and more concentrated and radical here.
But alas, the three things humans are well evolved for -- power dynamics, violence, and technology -- keep rationality, emotional intelligence, and peace at arms length.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#26There's a lot of rhetoric and bluff. I don't believe for a second that Nato would directly strike Russia if Russia used tactical nukes in Ukraine. That would indeed be a declaration of all out war against a cornered country which only remaining strength at the moment is its nuke stockpile, I.e. it would be madness and Armageddon would indeed have been triggered by Nato, not Russia. Rather, the West should deny Russia…
The NATO would be stupid if they nuked back, they have much, much more effective ways of striking back than tactical nukes.
One thing that has been suggested was the destruction of the black sea fleet for example which might thread an interesting needle:
- because it is stationed on Crimea one could argue it is not Russian soil, if one does not accept the Russian anexation of 2018
- it is mostly a military target so civilian casualties are not on the scale of e.g. nuking a city
- the defeat of the black fleet would certainly be felt in the (as of now) mostly isolated Moskow circles and political survival for Putin would be hard
As everything war you cannot really 100% rely on such planning tho. Unforseen dynamics may arise that take you for a ride with a destination you may not like. IMO Putin is currently on such a ride and if we had a machine that would return everything to a pre-Invasion state, I highly suspect there would be one Russian dictator that would like to use it.
But no such machine exists, and I think "the West" in case of tactical Nuke use has to find a way of threading the needle, with just enough retaliation to stop the Russians from doing more, but not so much that they completely panic. Doing nothing in return will normalize nukes, so it is not an option.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I don't believe for a second that Nato would directly strike Russia if Russia used tactical nukes in Ukraine. Almost no one is saying that’s the immediate consequence. But General Petraeus already commented how the response would be a collective NATO involvement sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet and bombardment of Russian positions in Ukraine. It’s anyone’s guess how Russia then responds to THAT, then how we resp…
Isn't " sinking the Russian Black Sea fleet " directly striking Russia? To me this sort of threat is bluff (or crazy talk by individuals in the military, it happened before) because that'd be declaring war and would corner Russia. Russia is relatively weak, yes, and no match to the US or Nato, but it isn't Iraq, either.
It isn't Iraq especially in the sense that Iraq had no where to go. On the other hand Russia can get the ** out of Ukraine and then carry on (more or less) as before. Yes, their economy is totally doomed now because it depends on energy that they are going to have a struggle to sell - for 10 years at least, but they do have a deescalation option. Iraq did not. Ukraine does not.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's a truly realpolitik analysis, but it still may leave Putin in great danger. The US has apparently warned Putin of the retaliation that awaits if he goes nuclear. Sinking the black sea fleet has been mentioned as a possibility. That means that all the sailors on those ships are sitting ducks, to be annihilated in their thousands in seconds, should Putin decide to go nuclear. Surely, even in Russia, the blowback…
First thing to do when threats are made is to decide whether they are credible. The sinking of the Black Sea Fleet would be a huge escalation and a declaration of war, not to mention not a smart thing to announce your plan in advance. To me it's the same as when Russia makes big threats. It's a war of words but with no plan for actual action. Edit: It seems to me that the US are trying to corner Russia into escalatio…
The west would generally need to pursue a severe escalation in response to a nuclear threat otherwise it sets a terrible precedent. I think something on that scale, but well below a nuclear response, is likely.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#29"I view it as highly unlikely ( Whereas the affects of nuclear on his own country will make him a hero? Sorry, it's just lose-lose.
What Putin accepts or not is irrelevant - it's what the Russian state will accept that counts.
Putin is dead in 5-15 years no matter what. Russia should,could,will have 100's of years left if it starts to act 1/2 way sensibly.
Re: Why I think there's a one-in-six chance of an imminent global nuclear war
#30"I view it as highly unlikely ( Whereas the affects of nuclear on his own country will make him a hero? Sorry, it's just lose-lose.
One of the things that is being shattered in Ukraine right now besides the Russian Army is the Russian self image. Now that's a powerful thing to lose. Russians have believed that they were a strong important country, now, the truth is here and it turns out they are weak and unimportant. Unable to project any sort of believable conventional power onto the world. The soviet union was obviously strong militarily with w…
> One can wonder if Putin at all has or had a true image of Russian military capability.
It is highly unlikely he has. But in the end, it is his own fault for creating that environment.