The end of classical Computer Science is coming • Hacker News Board

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#21

Post by tcbawo » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:10 AM UTC

fjfaase wrote: post #4

jmfldn wrote: post #2

This keeps me awake at night I must admit. How do I best future proof my career? I was sceptical about this until I started playing with GPT 3 and has it not only writen code for me, but also "explained" code to me. Sure, it's kind of limited right now, but it can only be a matter of time now before this all radically improves. Maybe I should focus on system design and translating the messy real world into systems. T…

It was in 1982 that I for the first time heard about the fourth generation programming languages in which you only had to specify the problem and you would get the system for free. But now 40 years later, most of the programming is still done in third generation programming languages. I am rather skeptical about the idea that AI is going to do away with programming soon. Yes, ML have shown some impressive results and…

Even if this were possible, the value of starting over in the problem domain would require considerable starting investment. In the meantime, your competitors will continue to iterate and improve. Depending on the domain, it might take many years to get to feature parity, even with vastly increased productivity. Many companies or industries will also shy away from such an investment because the benefit might not actually be worth the cost. Also, I think Joel Spolsky's lesson will still apply -- it's human nature to think it will be better the second time through: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2000/04/06/things-you-should-...

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#22

Post by palata » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:11 AM UTC

Feels like the typical extrapolation: "Look how fast we've done the 80%! It is only a matter of time until we reach 100%".

Except that it never works like that, does it? The further we go, the harder it becomes. It's impressive how fast they went from nothing to almost-fully-autonomous cars, but actually-fully-autonomous cars may never happen, who knows?

As a developer, I honestly feel more threatened by the energy crisis to come (end of fossil fuels in the next couple of decades) than with AI replacing my job.

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#23

Post by uup » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:12 AM UTC

RomanPushkin wrote: post #15

When the full car auto-pilot is getting released you said? Oh, I forget about foreign language translation. As a person who speaks multiple languages, we still cannot translate from one language to another so it doesn't look ugly.

Machine translation works pretty well though. At least into English.

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#24

Post by sys_64738 » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:13 AM UTC

There will always be a specialization of CS when other segments splinter from it. It might not be as large but it will be there. The reference to programming being in a death spiral is a bit of a stretch. There will be common mechanisms for like process but business always needs customization so I would worry about the Linux kernel dying anytime soon. What I’d expect is that programming tools become even more forgiving than today allowing almost anybody to do programming tasks with computer aid.

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#25

Post by RomanPushkin » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:16 AM UTC

uup wrote: post #23

RomanPushkin wrote: post #15

When the full car auto-pilot is getting released you said? Oh, I forget about foreign language translation. As a person who speaks multiple languages, we still cannot translate from one language to another so it doesn't look ugly.

Machine translation works pretty well though. At least into English.

From what language? Do you speak two languages fluently, so you can compare translations?

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#26

Post by haolez » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:22 AM UTC

chowells wrote: post #12

jmfldn wrote: post #2

This keeps me awake at night I must admit. How do I best future proof my career? I was sceptical about this until I started playing with GPT 3 and has it not only writen code for me, but also "explained" code to me. Sure, it's kind of limited right now, but it can only be a matter of time now before this all radically improves. Maybe I should focus on system design and translating the messy real world into systems. T…

Just take a look at the generated code and explanations. A surprising amount of it is subtly but fundamentally wrong because gpt is just a regurgitation engine. The issues may look superficial, but when you start looking at why they happen, you realize the truth. The ml tools are usually great at writing boilerplate that's the same every time. The instant you do anything else, they fall over. They're statistical auto…

Sounds good, but... do we have models in our heads? Or are our minds simply huge and complicated neural networks?

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#27

Post by jacknews » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:22 AM UTC

Progress in deep learning has been quite astounding the last few years, but the output is still very dreamy, fuzzy, inexact etc, as though eg for image generation, the pixels are representing individual neurons, and you're viewing the 'dream state' of the network.

I think actual programming requires something more concrete; the 'atoms' of a program are not text letters or pixels, but something more abstract, more exact. I think once deep learning incorporates a symbolic or logic system of some kind, that might be a solution, but then that will apply not only to programming. All IMHO.

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#28

Post by seibelj » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:23 AM UTC

uup wrote: post #23

RomanPushkin wrote: post #15

When the full car auto-pilot is getting released you said? Oh, I forget about foreign language translation. As a person who speaks multiple languages, we still cannot translate from one language to another so it doesn't look ugly.

Machine translation works pretty well though. At least into English.

It’s sort of non-shitty which is a glaring indictment of the difficulty of solving problems with AI. Languages are a closed system, the cars have no chance

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#29

Post by Jensson » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:24 AM UTC

dwohnitmok wrote: post #16

shakow wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is making stride in comparatively easy environments, i.e. highways and squared suburbs – when they don't crash into white trucks. Now, what tends to be forgotten is that there AI-average vs. human average is that humans can also drive e.g. in Turin or Paris at rush hour, on mountain roads under the snow or in the Cornwalls roads while under tempest rains. It's not that I believe that self-driving AI will never pro…

> humans can also drive e.g. in Turin or Paris at rush hour, on mountain roads under the snow or in the Cornwalls roads while under tempest rains. I'm not sure the median human driver can do all that.

The roads in those places are full of median and below median drivers.

Re: The end of classical Computer Science is coming

#30

Post by chatterhead » Fri, Oct 07, 2022, 1:27 AM UTC

SrslyJosh wrote: post #19

chatterhead wrote: post #10

There is a reason we are getting robot dogs with guns on their backs at the same time AI is advancing; because once AI crosses a certain line it is going to be powerful enough to nullify most jobs. It's not science fiction. What happens when you have a NN that understands how to integrate new physical input and render usable actions for creating outputs without human intervention? That's where we get machines buildin…

> What happens when you have a NN that understands how to integrate new physical input and render usable actions for creating outputs without human intervention? You're going to have to define "understands" and explain how to get there from where the technology is right now, because a model is a statistical artifact and doesn't "understand" anything, including its inputs and outputs. > How about recreational drugs de…

>> Understand means to sense, interpret, analyze, articulate and affect the real world.

Why would anyone want a car accident? Not quite following me huh? Seems like maybe you just want to argue.

Who benefits from humans working on stimulants and psychedelic drugs? How about the entire 20th/21st century? Are you seriously pretending everything from caffeine to opium hasn't been a driving force of production?

The sensing machines we are building are paralleled in their design and utility to the functional parts of our brains. We've networked them all together already, and all we need is a simple spark to set it all in motion.

Cognition rhymes with ignition for a reason.

exhales