Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Tesla AI Day 2022

youtube.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 91 posts

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#21

Post by nixarn »

martindbp wrote: post #18
justapassenger wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Elon is snakes oil salesman, who thinks he’s smartest and most important human in the history. He also happens to have some very successful products, that his fan base uses to silence any criticism.

If snake-oil salesmanship is all it takes to land rockets vertically and single-handily kickstart the transition to EVs I'm all for it. We need more snake-oil salesmen leading corporate America!

There can't be any objective discussions about Elon any more =) John Carmack finds Elon to be smart and really knowledgeable (listen to the latest podcast from Lex Fridman). And you would think HN trusts the words from Carmack? But most think Carmack, who knows Elon personally is wrong, and their opinion based on some random internet articles, is right.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#22

Post by ilaksh »

Mobius01 wrote: post #3

The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.

In a way. The motion was not spectacular like Boston Dynamics.

But any walking robot especially at that height and size is a significant engineering achievement.

And they have been working on it for months rather than years. And the system is entirely electric unlike Boston Dynamics.

The last demo was a person in a suit.

Your expectations were unrealistic if you are not impressed.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#23

Post by ilaksh »

foobiekr wrote: post #7
mhoad wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.

I mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k." There's some kind of mass delusion going on.

I think he said like 3-5 years.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#24

Post by martindbp »

fzeroracer wrote: post #19
martindbp wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is. Let's check by two measures: 1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access. 2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amoun…

Are you including the amount they're losing by having to recall those vehicles with FSD? Or the fact that there are lawsuits over how FSD doesn't work? Or any number of accidents caused by FSD being clearly buggy? Like ignoring how poor your breakdown is over it making 'billions' they've been hit by wave after wave of bad PR. Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control is and how many lie…

> Are you including the amount they're losing by having to recall those vehicles with FSD?

There has been one "recall" of FSD, which was for including the option to do a rolling stop at stop signs. They fixed this with an OTA update at the request of NHTSA. Total cost: a few dollars

> Or the fact that there are lawsuits over how FSD doesn't work?

Show me the lawsuits that have been lost and how much the damages were

> Or any number of accidents caused by FSD being clearly buggy?

FSD requires supervision, as such accidents are currently the responsibility of the driver. Even so, besides minor accidents there haven't been any confirmed crashes or anyone being hurt yet. With 160k cars on the road you'd expect worse. And again, this doesn't affect how much money they've made in selling the software.

> Like the various videos and lawsuits over how poor their quality control

You mean the video created by Dan O'Dowd of Green Hill Software, a competitor in automated car software?

Your hate doesn't change the numbers. Maybe you're right and everything comes crashing down, who knows. But this is the current reality.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#25

Post by addicted »

Mobius01 wrote: post #3

The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.

Before we even mention Boston Dynamics, can we talk about how it compares to the Honda Asimo?

Because it doesn’t.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#26

Post by addicted »

nixarn wrote: post #20
mhoad wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.

I look at that and I want a self driving car by Tesla. Did you see the rest of the presentation about their self-driving tech? This was amazing by this with the short time it's been in development, and the vision for this project is beyond anything that has been done with humanoid robots. Sure they might fail, but it's an exciting venture to follow.

Have they driven from LA to NYC as Elon promises they would by 2019?

Are Model S owners making more money than they are paying in leases thanks to lending their cars as auto cabs like Elon promised they would by 2020?

Is hyper loop even a thing or just something Elon admitted was something he came up with to try and kill public transport alternatives?

The Boston Dynamics Robot is far more of a commercial reality than the CyberTruck if you really want to put things in context.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#27

Post by addicted »

nixarn wrote: post #21
martindbp wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If snake-oil salesmanship is all it takes to land rockets vertically and single-handily kickstart the transition to EVs I'm all for it. We need more snake-oil salesmen leading corporate America!

There can't be any objective discussions about Elon any more =) John Carmack finds Elon to be smart and really knowledgeable (listen to the latest podcast from Lex Fridman). And you would think HN trusts the words from Carmack? But most think Carmack, who knows Elon personally is wrong, and their opinion based on some random internet articles, is right.

Elon is super smart. He’s also a snake oil salesman.

These are not contradictory statements.

Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and decided to focus on that.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#28

Post by martindbp »

addicted wrote: post #27
nixarn wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There can't be any objective discussions about Elon any more =) John Carmack finds Elon to be smart and really knowledgeable (listen to the latest podcast from Lex Fridman). And you would think HN trusts the words from Carmack? But most think Carmack, who knows Elon personally is wrong, and their opinion based on some random internet articles, is right.

Elon is super smart. He’s also a snake oil salesman. These are not contradictory statements. Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and dec…

> Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others.

You make it sound like he's selling ads online or something, not building rockets and electric cars, self-driving software and now robots? Like, if you wanted to make as much money as possible and "fool" people as you say, doing a rocket company and a new car company at the same time, pouring all the $100m you earned from selling your previous company, being months from bankruptcy in both ventures seem like a very roundabout and stressful way of becoming a billionaire.

I don't understand where you people get your world view from, are you exclusively reading click-bait news headlines and coming to the conclusion that Elon=Bad? How about reading some actual accounts of the early days at SpaceX for example? I can recommend "Liftoff", it's very balanced, focuses mostly on the employees of SpaceX and doesn't try to paint Elon as some kind of heroic figure, but gives credit where it's due. He comes off as a highly technical, maniacal, single-minded founder, inspiring but working his staff to the bones, and sure, also has some darker sides to his personality. It's the kind of personality that's required to pull these things off.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#29

Post by Telemoto »

Mobius01 wrote: post #3

The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.

BD took ages to be were they are right now.

I actually think Tesla showed more than I expected.

At least we now start the rat race for robots.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#30

Post by abudabi123 »

Putting together the gang that manhandled the Optimus bot on stage and the video of the grand piano being lifted up and down you can see the business usecase for the removalist industry which charges by the step to relocate such a piano from A to B. Decades ago the price per step was $50, not the U.S. dollar.
Post reply on HN