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Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
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Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#22Who would benefit from this?
The United States. Poland. Ukraine. Non-Russian gas suppliers.
In that order.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#23Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.
I have seen this line of thinking multiple places. It doesn't make any sense. Russia makes the energy crisis by turning off the gas. Destruction of the nordstream line only makes it impossible to start the gas exporting in case Russia want to sell it again and/or the sanctions are lifted. The obvious result of this is making sure that trade relationships with Russia can't go back to normal anytime soon.
Russia makes the energy crisis by turning off the gas
Yes, but this way Putin can plausibly deny that it was a policy decision. Same with novichok poisonings: everyone knows Putin's pulling the strings, nobody can prove he did.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#24Who would benefit from this?
Putin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.
Putin has been telling Germany to certify and turn on Nord Stream 2 for gas - several times. Some folks who don't want normalisation of energy relationships decided to take this option away.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#25Who would benefit from this?
Gas prices were dropping, half what they were at the peak. Putin wants gas prices to remain high to punish the EU and increase his own revenues. Since this incident they’re climbing back up. There are other ways for russia to export the gas than nordstream 1. He may think he can force an opening of nordstream 2. Putin has made so many errors in judgment that no strategy is too insane to be considered reasonable in his mind.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#26Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#27Who would benefit from this?
US since it destroys Putin's leverage against Germany.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin, because he gets an excuse to cut Germany off of Russian gas. It's game of chicken now: the West sends weapons to help Ukrainian army chase off all the Russian invaders, and Putin tries to make energy crisis in EU so severe that Europe is forced to negotiate with him, and accept Russian conquest of parts of the Ukraine. Whoever can stay on their course longer wins.
Putin already lost that game since he allowed most (all?) EU countries to fill their gas reserves beyond 90%.
For Germany, that's only a 2-1/2 month supply.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
But who is that? Ukraine should be fine with having Germany buy Russian gas since Germany keeps sending arms and push others to send arms. I don't see why the US would care either now that Germany is finally moving away from Russian gas. And Russia can just close the pipeline in a less destructive way.
Ukraine will be fine, post-war, with Germany buying Russian gas that went through pipelines on Ukrainian soils, because they get paid transit fees. No transit fees necessary for Nord Stream.
Ukraine has undeveloped large gas reserves (mostly at the territory currently occupied by Russia), so they could potentially replace Russia in the future as a supplier.
Re: Three Nord Stream gas pipelines damaged in one day
#30This is front page news in Denmark. Prime minister says "hard to imagine it happening by random", just short of declaring it a deliberate attack.
Alphabet agencies working overtime.