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Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

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Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#21

Post by TheAlchemist »

akmittal wrote: post #15
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

Irrespective of what he said, it won't be 0, Tesla would still be one of the best electric cars available.

That's probably true !

But in itself, just making on of the best electric cars today would justify a valuation of 1/10 of what Tesla currently have.

I still admire Musk and Tesla for having started the electric revolution. But by 2025 (and maybe already are), they will just be one of many electric car manufacturers - somewhere in the middle of the pack.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#22

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #10
impulser_ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

>Any reason why everyone seems to be stuck on this problem? ML maximalism focused on the narrow problem of 'solving driving' while not recognizing that any task as complex as driving requires probably something closer to general intelligence, and theoretically the field has been impoverished in favor of "throw more graphics cards at everything".

Couldn't agree more. Especially when it comes to city driving, which would obviously be necessary for robotaxis, when AI zealots promise "it'll be here in a year or two", I always wondered "Have these people ever driven in the city?" I mean, to drive in a city, you basically:

1. Need to understand all standard signage (seems possible with AI).

2. Need to understand all "unstandard" signage (not sure how possible).

3. Need to understand the cop with the thick NY accent yelling at you saying "Can't you see there's been an accident and the road is covered with glass you dufus? Turn the F around."

I can certainly see AI solving the problem of driving in specially designed limited access highways (which could also support normal human drivers), and that alone would be a huge benefit, but I never saw how so many were willing to make the leap to "robotaxis that can drive you anywhere in the city."

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#23

Post by NovemberWhiskey »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

>Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD.

In fairness, this is just another in the long line of ridiculous things that he is prone to saying.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#24

Post by glintik »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

> if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon He felt? It's evident enough, that approach they used doesn't allow them to prepare FSD for real life and real streets. I think he just understood, that approach to be changed/improved significantly to reach the goal.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#25

Post by cco »

impulser_ wrote: post #8
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

I paid ~$10 for two rides after signing up as a regular ole user in Mesa AZ. It was great, the first ride was a bit nerve wracking, but the second felt very nice.

I certainly wouldn't argue with you that it isn't ready for prime time and wide distribution, but it is interesting to see their progress in San Francisco, a much different driving problem.

If it takes them 10 years to get to prod in Mesa, two (maybe three?) in SF, maybe they start shrinking that a lot in metros without winters. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#26

Post by dreamcompiler »

impulser_ wrote: post #8
codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

Because self-driving has a bunch of tricky edge cases and most of them will kill people. Problems with hundreds of important edge cases cannot be solved by simply throwing more training data at the problem; that's how you solve AI problems in a "dumb" manner, and it works for lots of problems (like recognizing dogs in images) -- but not for self-driving.

To solve the self-driving problem we need "smart" A.I., which means we have to approach it with systematic engineering, and the solution will probably involve some combination of better sensors, introspectable neural nets, symbolic A.I., and logical A.I.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#27

Post by impulser_ »

Jabbles wrote: post #12
impulser_ wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, but Google's vision + lidar tech also doesn't seem any better at solving it either. They have been working on this problem the longest and they aren't even confident enough to produce a product with it. Google is probably the leader in AI and AI research. They are also the leader in data and mapping. They have billions of cash to play with. Yet it seem like they haven't gotten any closer at solving this problem…

> doesn't seem any better at solving it I thought they had real self-driving taxis in Pheonix that you can order? Real ones, with no safety driver. That definitely sounds "better", even if it is heavily geo-fenced.

Yeah, but I am sure Tesla's software can do the same.

Depending on the route, you could probably even do it with comma.ai hardware.

When I think of FSD, I think any route under any condition.

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#28

Post by TheAlchemist »

jackmott42 wrote: post #16
TheAlchemist wrote: post #4

Well, Musk said recently that the value of Tesla is 0 without FSD. Does anybody seriously think Karpathy would step down if FSD was really close to be released ?? It really starts to feel like Tesla is a huge fraud which is about to be uncovered.

FSD may be a huge fraud but the whole company is not. The cars are real!

Sure !

But are the financials of the company also real ? The prospects of future products ? Robotaxis, FSD, Cybertruck, Semi ?

Re: Andrej Karpathy leaves Tesla

#30

Post by dreamcompiler »

codechicago277 wrote: post #3

Tesla has bet the company on robotaxis, but their vision only tech stack doesn’t seem capable of solving it, which is a problem because Tesla has repeatedly promised FSD is right around the corner, or less than a year away. It’s hard to believe Karpathy would step down if he felt they were close to solving the problem anytime soon. This announcement comes after a 4 month sabbatical where Karpathy said he wanted to ta…

Uber bet the company on robotaxis and lost. Tesla is still building very good cars that happen to not be able to drive themselves. Just like every other car. If they could lose their obsession with self-driving and just focus on their incredible cars, they'd still make money.
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