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Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

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Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#21
The first part of the article about how Sri Lanka would get foreign currency (swap, export or borrow) almost completely ignores the well documented devastation of the tourist industry, where people bring euros or dollars, due to covid19 and shutdowns of travel.

Yes I suppose it falls into the category of swap, because people bring euros and exchange them for local currency to buy local goods and services. But it was a big part of the "swap" that vanished for 2+ years.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#22

The drastic move to organic farming is puzzling. Any level headed person , forget a politician , would want to experiment first, see the results, gauge and then expand selectively. That is common sense . I guess when you are a dictator ish government and you rule the country with an iron first, the institutions of the state stop being anything and simply become rubber stamps. This also underlines the importance of se…

Believe me, the organic transition had nothing to do with agricultural practices and all to do with economics, with the logic being that fertilizer was an expensive import, and by banning fertilizer they could hemorrhage foreign exchange reserves a little less. Of course, they also earned a lot less because the bone-headed transition lead to a marked reduction in yield, only worsening the forex problem the ban of agricultural chemicals was meant to solve.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#23

> But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a…

The US is very lucky as a significant amount of people have been taught that government aid/handouts are wrong, as in generally. I'm even impressed Trump spent a few trillion and still didn't get blasted for it by most people. The only two serious politicians who spoke up about it was Ben Sasse who in a conference call with constituents said "he spends like a drunken sailor" and Ted Cruise who at the end with the las…

What's funny is the deepest red counties in the reddest states are also the largest recipients of US domestic agriculture subsidies and benefit programs.

Then you have other things like Walmart and similar McJobs where the government is indirectly subsidizing the companies, by various child food aid, healthcare and benefits to employees because the company doesn't pay enough for its employees to live without aid.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#24
post #12

> But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a…

You would hope that someone wanting to switch to organic agriculture would encourage it … rather than just flip a switch…

Reminds me of governments who try to switch people to public transport by making driving harder, rather than making public transport better.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#25

> Without imports, many Sri Lankans will quickly find themselves hungry, stranded How did these island nations sustain themselves before ? In other words, what has changed that they can’t live off the land anymore? And by that, I mean the sea. Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged? Is it being exported to wealthier nations that command higher prices, even as there is a domestic food crisis? How much of this is because o…

Population grew.

In Japan agriculture is heavily subsidized, in particular rice production. Stuff that is not heavily subsidized focuses on high margin premium. They can't compete on volume/price but can on quality. After eating expensive apples or grapes there nothing really compares anywhere else

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#26

> But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a…

> cutting supports like this will inevitably doom a sputtering economy, when the actual solution was almost certainly more government spending, not less.

In the US that might be a sensible policy decision but SL can't do that.

The concrete supports that are needed (fuel, fertilizer, food) are bought with dollars and yuan. The government ran out of those, because it was already spending unsustainably to prop up the economy.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#27

> Without imports, many Sri Lankans will quickly find themselves hungry, stranded How did these island nations sustain themselves before ? In other words, what has changed that they can’t live off the land anymore? And by that, I mean the sea. Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged? Is it being exported to wealthier nations that command higher prices, even as there is a domestic food crisis? How much of this is because o…

> Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged

The fishermen can no longer afford or acquire fuel for their boats to go out and catch the fish. Due to the non fish related economic disaster outlined in the article.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#28

> Without imports, many Sri Lankans will quickly find themselves hungry, stranded How did these island nations sustain themselves before ? In other words, what has changed that they can’t live off the land anymore? And by that, I mean the sea. Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged? Is it being exported to wealthier nations that command higher prices, even as there is a domestic food crisis? How much of this is because o…

Before globalized trade, nations sustained themselves in ways we today see as extreme poverty.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#29
post #14

> Without imports, many Sri Lankans will quickly find themselves hungry, stranded How did these island nations sustain themselves before ? In other words, what has changed that they can’t live off the land anymore? And by that, I mean the sea. Has Sri Lanka’s fish been pillaged? Is it being exported to wealthier nations that command higher prices, even as there is a domestic food crisis? How much of this is because o…

As the article notes the government forced the food production to go all organic in one year with no plan, yields crashed, and now they have to import even rice. It sustained itself thru tourism and local food production. They have sold tea overseas since being a British colony. Also, another factor is they have to import all their medicines and oil, which is also dependent on foreign reserves. So now not enough food…

> It is a truly lovely country, with good tourism facilities.

Not to mention the people. Absolute wonderful human beings despite years of war and turmoil.

Re: Sri Lanka is having a textbook currency crisis, triggered by policy mistakes

#30

> But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a…

> The US is actually lucky to understand this at the deepest levels of policy and law making, with massive aid packages to prevent total collapse.

The current inflation crisis suggests that even the US economy can reach its limit with endless money printing and stimulus.

With the cost of borrowing going up, the executive and congress are going to start feeling pressure to cut spending or dramatically raise taxes.

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