Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
21–30 of 42 posts
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why can’t there be more than one financial system? Isn’t diversification valuable?
"Network effects" seem to be a fairly compelling reason that "two highly correlated and intertangled financial systems" is the most we'll get, not two fully separate ones. As long as people can interact with both easily, they will, and a lot of the risk/rewards will get tied together. Things move up together and down together.
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#23Can’t understand why the fed wants to regulate tulip bulbs. What’s next a paper on beanie babies?
I see at least two huge reasons: - The Fed decides who can use US dollars and what you can do with them; stable coins provide ways to evade such mechanisms. - It wants to avoid spillover in case the cryptocurrency market collapses entirely. Shadow banking and eurodollars played a role during the 2008 crisis.
I would caution against trying to forestall financial crises through imposed centralization. The mundane benefit of a permissionless/dynamic financial system - which is to facilitate investments that produce economic returns - accrue daily, usually in imperceptible increments, while financial crises occur once every few years, with large and sudden drops in market values.
The latter gets the attention, due to their suddenness, but the benefits of the former compound to enormous proportions, and go largely unseen, due to how gradual the process is.
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#24Earlier quoted context omitted.
Crypto may, one day, find utility as part of the financial system (outside of drug deals, sanctions evasion, money laundering, tax minimisation, greater-fool scams, and Ponzi schemes), but its recent volatility has been in no way related to that.
I know people that have bought houses with MakerDAO loans. Its utility is here. To say otherwise is just sticking heads in sand.
These pseudo zero-risk loans aren't exactly useful. The hard part of finance is in valuations, risk assessment, and regulatory compliance. And I stress the word pseudo, even DAI is built on a house of cards, although somewhat sturdier than its competition [order of mangitude depreciation, and when the market can't catch a bid it may be game over]
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#25Can’t understand why the fed wants to regulate tulip bulbs. What’s next a paper on beanie babies?
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#26Can’t understand why the fed wants to regulate tulip bulbs. What’s next a paper on beanie babies?
I never understood this analogy, and now I’ve seen it enough to finally ask in good faith —- If tulips bulbs were of a limited supply, (relatively) infinitely divisible, (relatively) impossible to forge, and could be transferred anywhere in the world, in any amount, (relatively) instantaneously… Would it really be that crazy to imagine that they may have kept significantly more value? Or be used as a kind of currency…
True until another batch of cryptotulip bulbs is released under a new name with slightly different properties and it joins the cryptotulip ecosystem. Any one species of cryptotulip might be a limited supply, but on the whole it's a very inflationary ecosystem, with trust on which is the "true currency" extremely malleable and divided. Even the "original" BitTulip has as many haters expecting its inevitable dethroning as it has proponents.
Even if the original Dutch tulips had somehow limited supply growth per species - say only selling neutered bulbs incapable of reproducing, while "miner" growers do the actual growing - you still have inflation from new sellers growing new species. Are people just supposed to arbitrarily say "Only orange Tulipa gesneriana tulips are a valid currency"? How does that consensus happen in a decentralized environment, when clearly it's not happening in this crypto bubble?
Is the argument that the limited supply comes from limited farmland? (AKA limited miners to generate the underlying security?) If so, how does that scale past the point where farming/mining is taking a significant chunk of the world's energy/land and just maintaining the currency is costing more than it saves on efficient asset transfer of actually productive useful things (like say - growing more crops, or using GPUs for AI)?
"Proof of Stake solves this!" you say? Well, now we're back to arbitrarily naming a tulip species as the only True Currency, with no physical resources backing it, and no particular reason people will stay loyal to it...
(Granted, the current non-crypto alternative is a heavily-armed centralized tulip farm that can grow its supply as it sees fit, and use its military to stifle other growers and guarantee its continued dominance. It allows a few other varieties (CAD, GBP, Yen, etc) but makes sure those growers back their supplies with a large stock of USDtulips, making them subsidiary growers bound to rise and fall with the central farm.)
Am I missing something?
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#27The GSE loan guarantee program is largely backstopped by the Federal Reserve. It underwrites $6 trillion worth of US mortgages, which is approximately 50% of the entire market.
In 1999, the GSEs set out to increase liquidity in so-called under-served residential mortgage markets, and thereby reduce the risk for private lenders to lend in that market, as this article describes:
https://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/30/business/fannie-mae-eases...
>>''Fannie Mae has expanded home ownership for millions of families in the 1990's by reducing down payment requirements,'' said Franklin D. Raines, Fannie Mae's chairman and chief executive officer.
>>'Yet there remain too many borrowers whose credit is just a notch below what our underwriting has required who have been relegated to paying significantly higher mortgage rates in the so-called subprime market.''
In terms of the Fed's direct role, its actions in 2003 - 2005 largely followed the playbook prescribed by Fed mouthpiece, Paul Krugman in 2002:
https://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/30/business/fannie-mae-eases...
>>To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble.
The market's natural behavior, which is to bankrupt irresponsible lenders, borrowers and speculators, seems to work in preventing bubbles from growing enough to cause financial instability. The collapse of Terra/Luna imposes more financial discipline in the crypto markets than any set of regulations could.
Attempts to artificially reduce instability can often have the opposite effect, by socializing the harmful effects of irresponsible risk taking, and thus creating moral hazard. This is the case with the Fed's role as the publicly funded lender of last resort, and the FDIC's role as publicly funded deposit insurer.
With respect to the latter, here is a study drawing that conclusion:
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#28Earlier quoted context omitted.
I did the same with TradFi. There's no additional utility.
I think the utility is the medium itself. Your TradFi loan was delivered to you using a financial system maintained by thousands of highly specialized bankers and engineers leveraging billions of dollars in infrastructure. A DeFi loan is delivered to you via a smart contract that runs on a generic financial computing platform known as a blockchain. Even if the only thing you can do with a blockchain is implement exis…
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Quite a few allegations there. It seems like the simplest way to settle this discussion would be to point out a few practical applications of crypto that provide real utility to the finance system.
I can’t speak to other cryptocurrencies. But at least re: Bitcoin: 1. International settlements of any sum of money (small to large) in 10-20 minutes instead of days 2. Markedly lower money transfer fees compared wire transfer or ACH 3. Ability to be one’s own bank if so desired, avoiding government bank account pillaging (Cyprus, Argentina, many more) 4. Ability to send money anywhere (try paying your staff in Russi…
2) Debatable because of volatility.
3) Yes but being your own bank also means losing everything is a forgotten/misplaced password/seed phrase, clicking the wrong link, etc away. I don't know how many password resets a big bank in the US does everyday but I'm sure it's a mindbogglingly large number. The vast majority of the population isn't ready for and won't tolerate this. The fees you describe for payments in the financial system have anti-fraud measure costs (reversals, etc) baked in. Yet another feature of the traditional financial system that has been developed (in reality) after decades of real-world experience. It's the equivalent of every single individual building their own hardened vault and hiring armed private security.
4) Fair enough but there are realities in potentially "skirting" the "law" like this. Banks have significant processes to make sure you're not (for example) "funding terrorism" or whatever which is a serious crime in the US and very easy to do with cryptocurrencies. I, for one, don't want to risk the Feds showing up at my door because my funds ended up with someone on my government's enemies list. Just because you can do it with Bitcoin doesn't magically mean the people with guns and prisons will just say "Oh Bitcoin - nevermind - that's ok".
5) Lightning (and for that L2s) are mostly bolt-on hacks that sacrifice one or more features/properties of cryptocurrencies as originally intended when it became clear they fundamentally don't work for anything beyond toy-level. Again, from a users perspective as long as the payment network allows you to swipe a card and walk out with your purchase ASAP transaction rates are invisible to the user. If traditional payment systems needed higher transaction rates they would magically appear.
6) This is a very dangerous supposition.
Re: Crypto-assets and decentralized finance through a financial stability lens
#30Can’t understand why the fed wants to regulate tulip bulbs. What’s next a paper on beanie babies?
I never understood this analogy, and now I’ve seen it enough to finally ask in good faith —- If tulips bulbs were of a limited supply, (relatively) infinitely divisible, (relatively) impossible to forge, and could be transferred anywhere in the world, in any amount, (relatively) instantaneously… Would it really be that crazy to imagine that they may have kept significantly more value? Or be used as a kind of currency…