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Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

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Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#21

Post by lr4444lr »

Barrin92 wrote: post #20
wallfacer120 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The reason why people in run down neighborhoods get arrested more is because the cops are biased. Also they don't police run down neighborhoods enough."

that's not really as contradictory as it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if policing in rough areas is both irregular but also harsher when it happens, and that it potentially attracts not the best people and not the best cops.

When the police start enforcing minor infractions, they get called out for bias too, because the fines and lost work hours to misdemeanor jail time hit the people in those communities "disproportionately". Then there is the revolving door issue we are seeing when DAs are soft on minor infractions, or law makers don't want to spend the money on them in the criminal justice system, so it doesn't make sense for the cops to go after lower level issues when they're budding. They can't win.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#22

Post by wallfacer120 »

Barrin92 wrote: post #20
wallfacer120 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The reason why people in run down neighborhoods get arrested more is because the cops are biased. Also they don't police run down neighborhoods enough."

that's not really as contradictory as it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if policing in rough areas is both irregular but also harsher when it happens, and that it potentially attracts not the best people and not the best cops.

No, it's completely contradictory. You either want police to police high crime areas or you don't. You either think they should arrest people in those areas committing crimes, or you don't. The police are both biased for enforcing laws, and biased for not, is not a valid position.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#23

Post by w-j-w »

civilized wrote: post #13
bergenty wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is fancy supposed to be derogatory in this statement?

Too fancy for anyone to be confident in what it's doing or whether it reflects real patterns. 0.90 AUC doesn't mean everything you can get this model to tell you is real, especially if you are trying to tell a causal story. Now, show me a plot of your data with a trend line and I'll often be able to tell you if there's a real pattern in your data.

Are you trying to claim that the model would better understand the complicated, real world of law enforcement if it were MORE reductionist?

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#24

Post by mbrodersen »

The Police seems to be in an impossible situation: if they don’t try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are “racist” (focusing on the rich neighbourhoods). If they do try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are also “racist” (for “targeting” specific races/cultures). It is especially difficult if they try to fight crime in a violent dangerous minority neighbourhood where every routine check/stop can turn into a deadly gunfight in seconds. There are minority neighbourhoods where 97% of violent crime/murders are committed by people of the same race/culture living in that neighbourhood. And yet a single Police incident gone wrong will completely overshadow the reality of this. Imagine being a police officer risking your life every single day. Knowing that the next person you stop might try to do his/her best to kill you. While also knowing that any mistake you make will be headline news around the world. It’s an impossible situation.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#25

Post by inetknght »

mbrodersen wrote: post #24

The Police seems to be in an impossible situation: if they don’t try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are “racist” (focusing on the rich neighbourhoods). If they do try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are also “racist” (for “targeting” specific races/cultures). It is especially difficult if they try to fight crime in a violent dangerous minority neighbourhood where every routi…

The problem isn't policing and racism. Racism is the symptom. The problem is all of the other problems that lead to the increase of violent crime in the first place. Police are put into an impossible situation indeed.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#26

Post by KennyBlanken »

scarmig wrote: post #18

It seems likely that police have divested from minority communities, which I agree is a genuinely racist outcome. There are complications, though. In the 90s, leadership figures in minority communities rightly called out under policing as a serious issue that hurt their communities and needed addressing. Nowadays enforcement actions, although increasing overall quality of life and decreasing violence and premature de…

There's a difference between not providing enough patrol coverage and poor response time to calls, not taking reports, not devoting sufficient investigatory resources to reported crimes...

...and stopping people for random pat-downs, pulling people over for the slightest traffic infraction or "smell of pot" and then emptying everyone out of the car because someone acted "suspiciously" and searching the car.

That's what activists and leaders in minority communities are referring to when they talk about under and over policing. You can have a community that is both under and over policed.

The typical pattern is: little focus on enforcement around crimes that affect people's lives, and lots of enforcement on "harming society / law and order" type crimes.

Another example of over-policing: SWAT teams showing up with door-busters and sub machine guns and stun grenades to serve no-knock warrants on suspects with no history of violence, over non-violent drug crimes.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#28

Post by scotty79 »

mbrodersen wrote: post #24

The Police seems to be in an impossible situation: if they don’t try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are “racist” (focusing on the rich neighbourhoods). If they do try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are also “racist” (for “targeting” specific races/cultures). It is especially difficult if they try to fight crime in a violent dangerous minority neighbourhood where every routi…

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#29

Post by KennyBlanken »

wallfacer120 wrote: post #22
Barrin92 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's not really as contradictory as it sounds. I wouldn't be surprised if policing in rough areas is both irregular but also harsher when it happens, and that it potentially attracts not the best people and not the best cops.

No, it's completely contradictory. You either want police to police high crime areas or you don't. You either think they should arrest people in those areas committing crimes, or you don't. The police are both biased for enforcing laws, and biased for not, is not a valid position.

Police can be strongly enforcing some laws and regulations, while not enforcing others.

Typically you see under-enforcement of crimes that have direct victims and real impact on people's lives - property and violent crime (say, a stolen car, or stolen bike that leaves the victim unable to get to work/child care, or the victim injured and unable to work, if only temporarily) that directly impact a person's life...and over-enforcement of general "orderly society" crimes and regulations that don't have a direct victim or impact one people's lives.

For example, you'll see cops take 20 minutes to respond to calls of domestic violence, which might come down to being short staffed.

But isn't it strange that every patrol cop in the neighborhood never fails to make sure to check that the corner sausage cart vendor and ice cream van have every single permit in order? And how there's always time to stop someone for a non-functional tail light? And to stop random dudes for pat-downs?

Re: Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a enforcement bias in US cities

#30

Post by anon291 »

scotty79 wrote: post #28
mbrodersen wrote: post #24

The Police seems to be in an impossible situation: if they don’t try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are “racist” (focusing on the rich neighbourhoods). If they do try to fight crime in a minority neighbourhood then they are also “racist” (for “targeting” specific races/cultures). It is especially difficult if they try to fight crime in a violent dangerous minority neighbourhood where every routi…

Admit only minority people into the Police force. Problem solved. If a Policeman kills minority unlawfully then it's just minority on minority crime so nobody will care.

Minority police shoot members of their own minority more often than whites though, so this policy would likely mean more dead black men

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/bad-policing-bad-law-not-bad-ap...

That's the data, not my opinion.

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