Live data from Hacker News

Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

news.ycombinator.com

21–30 of 75 posts

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#21
Silicon valley is full of crap is what happened. Some jobs have been reduced - bank teller, cashier etc. There are also lots of jobs that could be replaced but aren't beause of weird regulations and such - lawyer etc.

But most jobs - making hamburgers, cooking, laying brick, pouring cement, packing stuff in warehouses or assembly lines - stuff that matters, automation looks as far off as ever. Sure machines do a lot to help in these fields but it's going to be a very long time if ever when machines can replace people completely. Even self driving cars appear to be much further away than people think.

We cannot and should not plan the economy around Silicon valley hype

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#22
post #12

Touchscreens have replaced lots of human jobs. Self checkouts have replaced lots of human jobs. I worked in one of the very first grocery stores to have a self checkout added. They told us it wouldnt affect our jobs. If you go into any grocery store in the country you will see ~25% staffing compared to the late 90s/early 2000s. If you are askibg this question you are just too young to have noticed, or perhaps of a so…

But they're not robots - they've just outsourced the checkout job to the customer and made it so they require minimal training. Technology has made this easier, but it's not robotics.

It depends on how you define “robotics”. It’s physical technology that has displaced workers, even if it doesn’t have mechanical arms.

That being said, I think the robots that have taken peoples jobs are generally in warehouses and manufacturing and hidden away from the public eye. Think Amazon fulfilment centres, or auto manufacturers. There are a lot of robotics at play there replacing a lot of people.

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#23

It's still coming, the biggest impact will be in self driving trucks and commercial vehicles, next to that it will be in heavy equipment operation, farming, etc. And then in healthcare, etc.

But I keep hearing its coming, only a few years away. Like self driving cars, apple picking robots, etc. I remember reading in the 90's in Popular Science apple picking robots were going to replace all the farm hands in California's Central Valley.

Self driving cars are a common sight on many roads now, John deere just released a fully autonomous tractor https://www.deere.com/en/news/all-news/autonomous-tractor-re..., we have tricorders in our pocket that allow us to communicate with any human on earth, instantly, ...

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#25

It's still coming, the biggest impact will be in self driving trucks and commercial vehicles, next to that it will be in heavy equipment operation, farming, etc. And then in healthcare, etc.

But I keep hearing its coming, only a few years away. Like self driving cars, apple picking robots, etc. I remember reading in the 90's in Popular Science apple picking robots were going to replace all the farm hands in California's Central Valley.

It’s a different type of “coming”.

In the 90s, people imagined it was a few years away. But it was conceptual, like how we think about asteroid mining or Mars settlements.

Today, these concepts are proven. Waymo has been doing self driving in Phoenix. People here in SF are starting to take Cruise self driving cars. There have been successful self driving trucks that have made cross country deliveries. The proof of concept is already here. But the definition of “coming” has changed. It might not be economical or advanced enough for general availability. But the technology to do it is no longer a dream — simply a function of execution now.

Truck drivers and Uber drivers aren’t going to lose their jobs in the coming years. But these jobs are genuinely in danger in the coming decade.

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#26
post #21

Silicon valley is full of crap is what happened. Some jobs have been reduced - bank teller, cashier etc. There are also lots of jobs that could be replaced but aren't beause of weird regulations and such - lawyer etc. But most jobs - making hamburgers, cooking, laying brick, pouring cement, packing stuff in warehouses or assembly lines - stuff that matters, automation looks as far off as ever. Sure machines do a lot…

You think lawyers haven't been replaced solely because of regulation?

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#27
There is a Whole Foods store one block away from my house. Next to it I can see a number of bicycles with some type of trailers. They are used for deliveries. With such a bicycle a person can deliver easily 3 times more than a person who just pushes the groceries on a cart.

One way to look at this is to say the bicycle increased someone's productivity by a factor of 3.

But another way to look at it is to say that one man and one bicycle can do the work of 3 men now. So 2 men will lose their jobs. A bicycle just replaced 2 men.

The bicycle does not look like a robot at all, but is just as good, if not better, at replacing human workers.

The same with other jobs. You don't need to replace 100% of the workers. You just need to bring machines that increase someone's productivity by a factor of 5, and boom, you are able do let go of 80% of your human workforce.

At the same Whole Foods store there are lots of self service lines now. My guess is the number of cashiers went down by at least of factor of 3.

Amazon has shops where you don't even need a self-service line. You just go in, pick whatever you want from the shelves, and leave. The cameras keep track of what you pick and charge you appropriately. They started using this technology in Whole Foods stores (one in Washington DC is already functioning, one in LA is coming this Fall).

I went on a road trip last week. I noticed there are no more manned tollbooths. Everything is fully automated. That's probably some thousands of human jobs lost. Big win in my opinion, the passage through the tollbooths is much, much faster now.

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#28
post #12

Touchscreens have replaced lots of human jobs. Self checkouts have replaced lots of human jobs. I worked in one of the very first grocery stores to have a self checkout added. They told us it wouldnt affect our jobs. If you go into any grocery store in the country you will see ~25% staffing compared to the late 90s/early 2000s. If you are askibg this question you are just too young to have noticed, or perhaps of a so…

They just made their customers do the work for them

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#29
post #21

Silicon valley is full of crap is what happened. Some jobs have been reduced - bank teller, cashier etc. There are also lots of jobs that could be replaced but aren't beause of weird regulations and such - lawyer etc. But most jobs - making hamburgers, cooking, laying brick, pouring cement, packing stuff in warehouses or assembly lines - stuff that matters, automation looks as far off as ever. Sure machines do a lot…

You think lawyers haven't been replaced solely because of regulation?

Largely yes. In any field there are a few top performers or people with special connections that cant be replaced. But legal forms can be automated and AI today, even relatively unsophisticated AI seems to me to be capable of finding the correct legal argument better than many lawyers

Re: Ask HN: What happened to robots taking all our jobs?

#30
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if it's really about being hard, or just a matter of budget.

Tesla had a crazy budget, but they still couldn't automate everything

I mean more about ROI. We can't automate everything obviously. We can replace some janitors with floor sweeping robots and toilet cleaning robots, but who's going to clean under the sink?

We've had car assembly robots for decades because the ROI is incredible. Burger flipping robots less so. McDonald's does flip lots of burgers worldwide and apparently the bots are saving some money. But they flip a lot of burgers, so it's likely they haven't replaced all humans yet.

Post reply on HN