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Overthinking (2021)

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Re: Overthinking (2021)

#21
post #16

> I've also noticed that, up to a certain point, the smarter a person is, the more it has to be apparent in their work. Every algorithm needs to be perfect, every function needs to be side-effects free, every data structure needs to be the fastest, and every best practice needs to be followed. Many engineers are somewhere on the Asperger's spectrum, as Temple Grandin tells her Googler audience in [1]. Overthinking is…

[deleted]

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#22

Amazon has an internal tool called "Forte", a tool used once a year for employees to provide "anonymous" feedback for one another. One piece of feedback that cropped up multiple times for me, from multiple people, was that I could improve in "bias for action", akin to analysis paralysis mentioned in the article. At first, I got a bit defensive ... and in response, I ended up running an experiment, delivering code & w…

Interesting. How long did it usually take you to ship stuff vs your coworkers? And now are you on par or even faster?

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#23
post #13

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

There are not many industry breaking huge china based companies globally in comparison of how many people they have. Perhaps our way might not be that bad after all. And while Chinese currently the EV market discovers it's totally unclear how the car industry will look in 10 years

I wonder how much of that is a result of the state enforced cultural isolation-

(as a means of decreasing the chances of information and ideas which they actively censure from spreading in the population, ideas which would be likely undermine the current leadership's ability to maintain unilateral power. Just as Russia has experienced with its citizens as they become more connected to others outside of the country, whose individual liberties and relatively meritocratic economic systems they've begun to push for domestically)

-rather than lacking technical merits in what they create or the speed at which they do so.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#24
post #22

Amazon has an internal tool called "Forte", a tool used once a year for employees to provide "anonymous" feedback for one another. One piece of feedback that cropped up multiple times for me, from multiple people, was that I could improve in "bias for action", akin to analysis paralysis mentioned in the article. At first, I got a bit defensive ... and in response, I ended up running an experiment, delivering code & w…

Interesting. How long did it usually take you to ship stuff vs your coworkers? And now are you on par or even faster?

I no longer work at AWS but the lesson has stuck with me. Whenever I start to feel that I'm starting to overthink, I quickly break the cycle and ship whatever I have.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#27
post #13

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

There are not many industry breaking huge china based companies globally in comparison of how many people they have. Perhaps our way might not be that bad after all. And while Chinese currently the EV market discovers it's totally unclear how the car industry will look in 10 years

After 20+ years here (currently, like ~every other foreigner, leaving) I ascribe the failure of China to innovate at a rate matching its size, industrial significance and affluence to the politicization of its education and media systems primarily and secondly to its insistence on isolating young people from foreign internet influence. The dynamism of small business is a counter-weight, not a contributor. Local engineering staff are good, but they are primarily domain-specific pragmatists who lack both the theoretical foundations and the general analytical capacity to independently face ill-defined cross or novel domain problems and I believe this stems directly from the rote-oriented education system and "don't be the nail that sticks out" politicization of society as a whole. After decades of seeing the individual and original ideas of themselves and their peers put down, most Pavlovian subjects, regardless of nationality, are going to wind up cognitively and emotionally eschewing creative thinking. "Not my department" is rife. There are many great things about China historically and the modern supply chain is unrivaled, but culturally modern China is simply not aligned with R&D at a fundamental level.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#28

This made me think of science and academia. One of the things that seems to distinguish productive people in science is the balance between “doer” mentality and “thinker” mentality. Too much “thinker” mentality and the project never goes anywhere. Too much “doer” mentally and the project moves but may go down an unproductive path. Perhaps an analogy is that “thinker” and “doer” mentalities work together like a stocha…

Damn dude, having seen anything this insightful since that last Malcolm Gladwell book. Thanks!

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#29
> Thus we learn how to think, and we end up with whole countries filled with people who think, think, think but never start doing anything.

That could of have used a lot more thought: What is the basis for it? Are less educated people more productive? Is the US ever portrayed that way?

IME, there are individuals who overthink - that is, they think for emotional needs not related to the problem. But I don't think I've ever encountered an organization where generally too much thinking was going on!

I think it's trendy to denigrate or ignore critical thought, education, reason, facts ... Our decisions come from somewhere; either we think for ourselves or we are victims of others who will think for you and influence the public. It seems so many trends these days benefit a powerful few and train the public to follow them obediently.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#30

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

> I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path.

First, how is the cost of failure reduced?

It sounds like fundamental economics: If you reduce the cost of investing, usually by lowering interest rates, then investment increases, following the pattern you described.

What is the state of credit / funding in China? Is the government still pumping credit into the economy?

> People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings.

But usually when we start seeing that pattern, it's a bubble. Resources are being allocated to unproductive initiatives.

As with anything, there's a balance.

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