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Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

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Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#21

Post by nescioquid »

alasdair_ wrote: post #4
jwithington wrote: post #2

I'm always impressed by 80k hours to surface answers to the most existential problems! They had another good one about spinning up the global food supply post-apocalypse. Dartnell seems to be thinking longer term than immediate (first 2 weeks). Are there any guides for the first two weeks? I wonder if the US military's SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, Escape) guides are the most comprehensive resources? While int…

> Are there any guides for the first two weeks? There are thousands of prepper guides around, depending on how much work you want to do. I'd say a good start would be to think about the pandemic and think about what stuff became hard to get and make sure you have more of that available. Medications are a big one - try to have enough spare to last a couple of months. Having actual cash is important too, as is having c…

> Medications are a big one - try to have enough spare to last a couple of months.

I've always wondered about how to carry out this advice for medicines other than what's available OTC. If someone depends on prescription medication, is this possible? How do you ask?

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#22

Post by hguant »

CJefferson wrote: post #12
alasdair_ wrote: post #3

I bought The Knowledge several years ago. It's a fantastic book, with just the right amount of detail. One thing I particularly liked was the focus on how to get certain materials in a likely post-apocolyptic world - for example, instead of just telling you how to mine iron, the book explains that there is likely cast iron all over the place in things like cookware and even if it's heavily rusted, it can be cleaned a…

Yes, materials will be important. We probably can't "do the same again", so much of the Industrial Revolution (from my reading at least) was started with the huge amounts of wood, then easily accessible coal, then "spending" coal to get access to deeper coal. If you started from scratch, there isn't really any easily accessible coal left.

>If you started from scratch, there isn't really any easily accessible coal left.

I don't think this is strictly speaking true - certainly not for the US. I believe the majority of US coal production (according to wikipedia at any rate) is surface level mining, not the traditional underground mines people think about. I know that's true for parts of the Appalachian basin, I'm unclear as to whether that's true for the Wyoming mines.

Europe might be in trouble, I believe the only coal readily available on the continent is "brown" coal (lignite) which is suitable for power production, but has too many impurities to be used for steel production.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#23

Post by DylanDmitri »

Key element is probably less technology, and more social/political/religious unity. You need a stable and egalitarian social fabric to make consistent progress.

Core beliefs: rebooting civilization is hard but will make everything better (promised land), here's the scientific method and why it works, here's how to setup and maintain a democratic nation state, here's how to incentivize and reward inventors. Here's fascism and why it's bad. Here's the Prisoner's Dilemma -- everyone must cooperate with each other and identify and punish defectors. Here's songs and rituals and art you can participate in together to reinforce all of this.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#24

Post by zbrozek »

hguant wrote: post #22
CJefferson wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, materials will be important. We probably can't "do the same again", so much of the Industrial Revolution (from my reading at least) was started with the huge amounts of wood, then easily accessible coal, then "spending" coal to get access to deeper coal. If you started from scratch, there isn't really any easily accessible coal left.

>If you started from scratch, there isn't really any easily accessible coal left. I don't think this is strictly speaking true - certainly not for the US. I believe the majority of US coal production (according to wikipedia at any rate) is surface level mining, not the traditional underground mines people think about. I know that's true for parts of the Appalachian basin, I'm unclear as to whether that's true for the…

I trip over coal in folks' backyards in Kentucky. You don't need more than hand tools to get at it.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#25

Post by ryukafalz »

jwithington wrote: post #15
colechristensen wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, preppers overdo it because it's fun for some people. I have a case of water bottles in the trunk of my car, a bit of camping gear in the closet, and enough dry pantry goods on hand to last a good long while. None of this is to "prepare" for anything besides the water in case of some incident that strands me in my car. Not that much special is required to survive for a couple of weeks. Maybe if you want to practic…

That's what I'm saying haha. I'm not looking to "prep" and the prepper manuals go overboard for what >99% of people are looking for. I'm looking for the practical things. An emergency action guide of some sort...

FEMA has some good material on that. Here’s a basic one: https://www.fema.gov/pdf/areyouready/basic_preparedness.pdf

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#26

Post by hguant »

jwithington wrote: post #2

I'm always impressed by 80k hours to surface answers to the most existential problems! They had another good one about spinning up the global food supply post-apocalypse. Dartnell seems to be thinking longer term than immediate (first 2 weeks). Are there any guides for the first two weeks? I wonder if the US military's SERE (Survival, Evasion, Resistance, Escape) guides are the most comprehensive resources? While int…

There are general guides to the first two weeks - FEMA has several publications about this [0]. You don't need to go full prepper or SERE for that period of time - just get a water filter and some freeze fried meals, or have a pantry with beans and rice on hand - they keep for ~1 human half-life, so you don't really have to worry about them going bad.

I wouldn't view SERE as a useful resource, if only because the assumptions SERE makes (hostile territory, woodland survival, etc) aren't really applicable to someone living in an urban or suburban environment, which is what I assume most users of this website are.

[0] PDF warning! https://www.fema.gov/pdf/library/f&web.pdf

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#27

Post by throwaway892238 »

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia.

After the apocalypse, I want the people who can dig wells, practice permaculture, organize a farm, keep sheep, spin yarn, blacksmith, prep lumber, fire pottery and glass, tan leather, hunt, fish, manage woodlands. Doctors and scientists would be handy too, but now that we know so much about how biology works it wouldn't be so difficult to keep people living longer. Assuming antibiotics still work in 20 years and we retain some basic surgical skills, we're basically set.

The most challenging thing after an apocalypse is obviously going to be government. If there's no law and order you can't really organize anything. Whoever has the most power, best strategizing, and most flexible morals will collect the most resources and gather the largest forces. It'll be "join or die", and slavery will come back. Just read your history to see what happens when societies crumble.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#28

Post by akersten »

throwaway892238 wrote: post #27

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

> Assuming antibiotics still work in 20 years and we retain some basic surgical skills

And what happens when the antibiotics and sterile surgical implements run out, due to the incredible industrial machinery needed to produce them having disappeared? "1600's Welsh countryside but with modern medicine" doesn't quite play out without the corresponding modern supply chain, at least for long.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#29

Post by ars »

throwaway892238 wrote: post #27

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

> can dig wells, practice permaculture, organize a farm, keep sheep, spin yarn, blacksmith, prep lumber, fire pottery and glass, hunt, fish, manage woodlands

I'm very confused by why you think this is sustainable - this type of life uses FAR FAR FAR more resources than modern living. It only works with a low population.

England for example basically cut down every tree it has in order to sustain this type of (old) life. They found coal because they had no choice, they were about to run out of energy.

If you just want to kill lots of people and have a low population, I suppose you can advocate for that, but it's completely orthogonal to the type of technology we have.

Re: Getting humanity to bounce back faster in a post-apocalyptic world

#30

Post by NoImmatureAdHom »

throwaway892238 wrote: post #27

Weird take. Sure, you could try to re-build what you had before the apocalypse. Or you could build a new world that isn't the one that just plunged everything into chaos. If our technology wasn't so good, the world wouldn't be as populated, we wouldn't need so many resources, there wouldn't be so many ways to poison the earth, and the earth would be habitable and sustainable for millennia. After the apocalypse, I wan…

This viewpoint is appealing, but the thing is: natural selection says it isn't possible in the long term.

For every person like you, who thinks s/he knows how things would be better for the environment and others, and how to get there (at least approximately), there is another person who doesn't give a shit and who will do long-term damage in exchange for short-term gains all day long. That person will out-compete you and other people like you.

We do, however, seem to be getting better and better at solving these sorts of cooperation puzzles. I just don't see a way out of the Malthusian problem (there will be more and more of the sorts of people who breed more, by definition). We might just have to live with a boom-and-bust cycle on this planet, much like other species, but on longer timescales. It's also possible we avoid the evolutionarily stable state and manage to successfully trap ourselves in some sort of metastable state.

It's all going to be fine and your life will be really good, though :-)

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