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Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

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Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#21

Post by paulpauper »

eloff wrote: post #18
paulpauper wrote: post #10

Just when the Nasdaq posts one of its biggest weeks in a long time. This is why I tend to tune this stuff out. The time to have made this presentation was 6+ months ago. Now too late. Still long, have not sold anything. Added more to my position last week.

Bear rallies are fierce. I do not think we've hit bottom yet. Notably this opinion is shared by Michael Burry, Jeremy Grantham, and Ray Dalio, among others.

bear markets tend to be much briefer than bull markets. Odds are if you try to time it you will end up selling too soon, buying back too late. How do you know if a bear market rally is the start of a new bull market? You don't, which is why I err on the side of not selling.

Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#22

Post by newaccount2021 »

paulpauper wrote: post #10

Just when the Nasdaq posts one of its biggest weeks in a long time. This is why I tend to tune this stuff out. The time to have made this presentation was 6+ months ago. Now too late. Still long, have not sold anything. Added more to my position last week.

No post body was provided.

Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#24

Post by polote »

I really struggle to believe all this thing. We have some inflation because of covid stimulus and Ukraine war, sure. So the fed is going to increase the rate, sure. And everyone is panicking at the same time so markets are falling. Poor people have less money because they need to pay for more expensive food but all the others still have money to invest, so I don't understand what it changes for vc ( except for the money they lost investing in crypto)

Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#27

Post by JCM9 »

polote wrote: post #24

I really struggle to believe all this thing. We have some inflation because of covid stimulus and Ukraine war, sure. So the fed is going to increase the rate, sure. And everyone is panicking at the same time so markets are falling. Poor people have less money because they need to pay for more expensive food but all the others still have money to invest, so I don't understand what it changes for vc ( except for the mo…

The market has cycles where is goes from loving startups that burn cash with the aim of “growing big” and then figuring out the business to absolutely despising these models and flushing them out of the system. We’re at that pivot point now in the cycle.

Startups with cash on hand and generating cash from operations will have some bumps in the road and probably take a big hit to their valuation, but with make it through. Startups still trying to figure out how they’re going to “make money” and without a ton of cash on hand to give them a long runway likely won’t make it through the next 18 months.

Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#28

Post by baybal2 »

polote wrote: post #24

I really struggle to believe all this thing. We have some inflation because of covid stimulus and Ukraine war, sure. So the fed is going to increase the rate, sure. And everyone is panicking at the same time so markets are falling. Poor people have less money because they need to pay for more expensive food but all the others still have money to invest, so I don't understand what it changes for vc ( except for the mo…

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Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#29

Post by this_user »

tyingq wrote: post #17
deeptote wrote: post #15

This is a return to business fundamentals; you no longer get to burn money and not deliver value. Cheap money has been a plague on tech. Even bucket shop crypto shitheads like Parcl were getting 10's of millions of dollars. The party is officially over for charlatans like them.

The party was over in 2008 too, yet here we are.

In 2008 monetary and fiscal policy was not constrained by high inflation. Not it is. Anything that depends on inflows of cheap new capital will suffer. That concerns unprofitable companies as well as assets that generate no cash flows like anything crypto.

Re: Adapting to Endure – Sequoia Capital [pdf]

#30

Post by ctvo »

This presentation is a great example of why slides are a horrible format. It's either too much or too little information per slide, context is lost if you're not in the room, and it allows escape hatches for handwaving at the charts without the ability to dive deeper or question the data.
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