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Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

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Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#21

Post by SkittyDog »

adesanmi wrote: post #10
MrBuddyCasino wrote: post #6

tl;dr on why its relevant: „The reentry of the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft will not be your standard reentry. The Descent Craft was designed to survive entry through the dense atmosphere of Venus. It will therefore likely survive reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere intact and make a crash landing (it is extremely unlikely that the parachute system will still work after more than 50 years in space). This will therefore b…

Would we be able to shoot it down before it hits anything?

If you shoot at something that is falling... it's still gonna fall, even if you hit it, brrak it up, etc. Whatever matter is there before will still be there after the hit, but on a less predictable trajectory.

If you break it up into pieces before it re-enters the atmosphere, you may get a higher proportion of burnup, because small chunks means lower overall ballestic coefficient per mass... But hitting stuff in orbit is difficult, and we would have a very hard time predicting the results.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#22

Post by perihelions »

adzm wrote: post #14
JacobAldridge wrote: post #13

An interesting note right at the end, so in case anyone missed it: this same launch is believed to be the source of 5 titanium "spaceballs" that fell onto New Zealand in 1972. While the odds are low of any space debris hitting land, it was the photo in this article that surprised me - I was thinking billiard ball size debris, not this - http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/4542804/Government-report-o...

That article mentions them dangling a wrist watch over the space ball to see if it was radioactive. How would this work?

It wouldn't.

edit: It's obvious the quoted person had no idea what they were doing -- even a few seconds at arms' length from a fresh nuclear reactor core would be fatal. And quite a few satellites in that era were nuclear-powered.

It's not as if accurate knowledge of radiation was readily available, in the 1970's.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#23

Post by _moof »

Donckele wrote: post #17

Did anyone get when the ETA is for impact and predicted location?

Depending on how it's modeled, 2024 to 2027 (with earlier being higher likelihood), or 2023 to 2025. No way to predict location but it'll be somewhere between 52°N and 52°S.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#24

Post by WalterBright »

russellbeattie wrote: post #9

If a chunk of Soviet space junk falls on someone's house, does the Russian Federation just shrug and say, "That was the USSR, bruh, sorry." They must have assumed responsibility for the Soviet space program, right? It's sort of like firing a bullet into the air... Doesn't matter how long it takes to come down, it's still your fault if it kills someone.

It seems unlikely that terminal velocity of a bullet would be terribly dangerous.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#25

Post by retrac »

russellbeattie wrote: post #9

If a chunk of Soviet space junk falls on someone's house, does the Russian Federation just shrug and say, "That was the USSR, bruh, sorry." They must have assumed responsibility for the Soviet space program, right? It's sort of like firing a bullet into the air... Doesn't matter how long it takes to come down, it's still your fault if it kills someone.

Kosmos 954 crashed in northern Canada with parts of the nuclear reactor still intact. The Soviets did eventually pay part of the bill Canada issued for the clean-up operation. It's the only claim so far made under the Space Liability Convention. [1] And yes, I believe the Russian Federation did inherit liability for orbiting Soviet space junk.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Liability_Convention

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#26

Post by travisgriggs »

A water splashdown is the highest probability. But I think even with the 52 degree envelope, Russia is still probably the largest landmass in that envelope? So I take ironic pleasure knowing it’s more likely to smack back into Russia than any other country.

(I’m making an educated assumption about the geography, but could be wrong)

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#27

Post by pvg »

nynx wrote: post #15
adzm wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That article mentions them dangling a wrist watch over the space ball to see if it was radioactive. How would this work?

Perhaps tritium in the watch hands.

Tritium is itself radioactive and used in watches to make a luminescent material glow. I think zinc sulphide was common and it would probably glow if lit up enough. Not sure you want to be near something that makes your watch dial markings glow visibly more than the radium or tritium that's in the paint, though.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#28

Post by Someone »

russellbeattie wrote: post #9

If a chunk of Soviet space junk falls on someone's house, does the Russian Federation just shrug and say, "That was the USSR, bruh, sorry." They must have assumed responsibility for the Soviet space program, right? It's sort of like firing a bullet into the air... Doesn't matter how long it takes to come down, it's still your fault if it kills someone.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty says they inherited the USSR’s entry into the “Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies”, which, among others, states states shall be liable for damage caused by their space objects, so they should fess up.

Depending on where it falls, in today’s political climate, they might say it’s part of a special military operation against nazis, though.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#29

Post by Someone »

WalterBright wrote: post #24
russellbeattie wrote: post #9

If a chunk of Soviet space junk falls on someone's house, does the Russian Federation just shrug and say, "That was the USSR, bruh, sorry." They must have assumed responsibility for the Soviet space program, right? It's sort of like firing a bullet into the air... Doesn't matter how long it takes to come down, it's still your fault if it kills someone.

It seems unlikely that terminal velocity of a bullet would be terribly dangerous.

https://www.newscientist.com/lastword/mg25233622-900-can-bul...:

“If you see a soldier shooting into the air, run for shelter first and cringe later. Falling bullets cause injuries and deaths.”

I expect a great difference depending on the size of the bullet.

Re: Kosmos 482: questions around a failed 1972 Venera lander still orbiting Earth

#30

Post by ars »

Can anyone explain how it's possible for the apogee to reduce so much, while the perigee barely changes?

Wouldn't the air resistance that lowers the apogee also affect the perigee?

Or is it specifically because the object is being slowed at perigee, that the apogee lowers, while the perigee doesn't change much because the apogee is in vacuum?

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