I think it is rather easy to say that the rapid buildout of more and more fabrication plants may be fruitless if the entire industry is still going to rely exclusively on ASML for EUV and even more so if there are no new ingot providers. Apparently, the fab companies know something we do not in those regards. Beyond that, while we are facing high demand now and low supply, a ton of new fabs will increase supply and……
The semiconductor bust – still coming?
21–30 of 75 posts
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#22Earlier quoted context omitted.
> “…strategically bought…” That’s a key phrase here. Did others do the same? If they didn’t then why not? And if they did, then they are surely profiting from the shortage as well. I wonder how long this can go on for… I mean if you can make less of something, and make 2x or more (in your example) profit from it then I’d guess some businesses might not want this kind of arrangement to end.
I consider this economic warfare. I suspect disruption and chaos are the end goal, and the monetary gain is just the cherry on top. Once the supply chain starts to catch up, they will dump everything at once and possibly ruin the manufacturers if they aren't careful. And careful mfgs means supply disruptions will be extended even longer. I mostly posted because it doesn't seem like anyone is even noticing the coup. T…
What do you read / use to stay current on what you are referring to as a coup? Are you noticing these trends / events because you are a frequent buyer of related technologies or is it out of interest or maybe some other reason?
Do you think more manufacturing will be moving to the states or out of Asia in general as a result of what’s happening now? You mentioned that you believe there will be laws against this kind of thing in the future, but depending on the state of global affairs/ economic alliances laws like these would be difficult to enforce (imo), so would a more direct solution involve countries producing their own chips / (whatever else is being hoarded now)?
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#23Hard to listen to someone talk about semiconductor/IC supply without mentioning China's cornering and hording of the semiconductor/IC market. There are bottlenecks in all electronic assemblies. Processors, crystals, specialized chips, etc. Things you just can't substitute. China identified many bottlenecks and strategically bought the entire supply. For thousands of items. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ele…
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#24Hard to listen to someone talk about semiconductor/IC supply without mentioning China's cornering and hording of the semiconductor/IC market. There are bottlenecks in all electronic assemblies. Processors, crystals, specialized chips, etc. Things you just can't substitute. China identified many bottlenecks and strategically bought the entire supply. For thousands of items. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ele…
I’m not in the hardware industry, but is 215000 microcontroller supposed to be a lot? The case you bring up sounds like run of the mill hoarding for profit. Semi conductor supply shortage can be seen from miles away and building up inventory sounds like exactly the thing broker should do if they foresee shortage to last (and risk losing money if shortage doesn’t last). To me it would only be a problem if NXP, which i…
Hoarding or panic buying is an example of bad-faith behavior. Panic buying hurts buyers without means to hoard. With groceries, it might mean their children going hungry after a rich guy empties out local store (not everywhere a store manager can flat out refuse to sell). With microchips, where bad-faith behavior may also be amplified by information asymmetry (coordinated action by large number of players), it may mean stagnation in the industry and wide-reaching implications for everything that has grown to rely on microchips (which, incidentally, includes the above-mentioned grocery stores, their supplies and so on).
With groceries it is a bit easier to understand the impact of your actions, because the aforementioned local rich will see hungry children’s parents day to day. With microchips and global market, the negative impact is far removed (and in many cases can be considered beneficial, if country boss designates some group of humans as “the enemy”), and one is incentivised to keep looking for ways to exploit market mechanics technically legally but in bad faith.
Hoarding of microchips makes me worry about the global market. It may seem like a good idea to include bad guys into it, since participating in it may make them more interested in getting along with everybody, but if we have one psychopathic, chronically insecure participant insisting on playing a zero-sum game it’s feasible that they ruin the whole initiative and “outplay” the rest who assume the best in others.
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#25Earlier quoted context omitted.
Switches and raspberries got really hard to find for a while too
Raspberry Pis are still widely out of stock. And not just Pis! The car industry has been facing chip shortages, Fujifilm's flagship digital cameras and lenses are still impossible to find and have been for years since the chip shortage started... Two years after Nvidia released their flagship GPUs they're finally able to be purchased, but they're only six months away from releasing the next generation, which will als…
I figure someone much smarter than me ran the numbers and decided it's not worth the cost. And chips being in such shortage for many years would likely be worth the cost.
All of that said, I wish the US gov would sponsor in some way new fabs in the US. It's nearly a national security risk at this point.
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#26Hard to listen to someone talk about semiconductor/IC supply without mentioning China's cornering and hording of the semiconductor/IC market. There are bottlenecks in all electronic assemblies. Processors, crystals, specialized chips, etc. Things you just can't substitute. China identified many bottlenecks and strategically bought the entire supply. For thousands of items. Hundreds of billions of dollars worth of ele…
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
Raspberry Pis are still widely out of stock. And not just Pis! The car industry has been facing chip shortages, Fujifilm's flagship digital cameras and lenses are still impossible to find and have been for years since the chip shortage started... Two years after Nvidia released their flagship GPUs they're finally able to be purchased, but they're only six months away from releasing the next generation, which will als…
Not to sound nationalistic, but the fact that we(USA) are not setting up fabs like crazy makes me feel like it's temporary. The same way Georgia Pacific and friends didn't set up tons of TP factories during the pandemic. I figure someone much smarter than me ran the numbers and decided it's not worth the cost. And chips being in such shortage for many years would likely be worth the cost. All of that said, I wish the…
Chip companies are making new fabs in the US and the US gov is helping to sponsor them.
[1] https://www.nist.gov/semiconductors/chips-act
[2] https://www.usatoday.com/story/business/2022/04/14/intel-neg...
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#28I have no expertise in this, and can't even claim to have followed the entire article or video. But the PS5 has been out of stock ever since its release in Nov 2020. That is an astonishing fact to me. I can't think of anything like this in my lifetime. The flagship product of a multinational corporation has been sold out for 18 months. Empty shelves where a product should be. It's just one isolated data point, but it…
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#29Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not to sound nationalistic, but the fact that we(USA) are not setting up fabs like crazy makes me feel like it's temporary. The same way Georgia Pacific and friends didn't set up tons of TP factories during the pandemic. I figure someone much smarter than me ran the numbers and decided it's not worth the cost. And chips being in such shortage for many years would likely be worth the cost. All of that said, I wish the…
The US Government did precisely that with the CHIPS Act (2021). It allocated something like $40B for US manufacturing of semiconductors and $10B for R&D [1]. Intel is planning a megafab in Ohio that is estimated will cost $100B when it’s completed. The State of Ohio is giving $2B for the first two plants that are estimated to cost $20B [2]. Chip companies are making new fabs in the US and the US gov is helping to spo…
I suppose I should have researched more recently before commenting. The fact that this doesn't make front page national news is mind boggling to me.
Re: The semiconductor bust – still coming?
#30Cloud computing growth is in no way going to decelerate anytime soon. We have not reached peak cloud.