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Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.
https://www.economist.com/news/2022/03/11/could-russia-use-c...
Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.
Stand with Ukraine:
paraphrasing HR: "Medium range air defense and shore to ship missiles ..."
If the Ukrainians are allowed to protest, then Russia is fighting this while trying to minimize overt civilian casualties (most likely to avoid video of such acts becoming galvanizing propaganda tools against them). If things go poorly, then what? If Russia then starts fighting to destroy rather than conquer Ukraine intact, then it's a whole different story. This piece reads of wishful thinking.
I find it less likely that Russia is trying to minimize civilian casualties, and more likely that their occupying forces just don't have the numbers or cohesion to do anything about the protests without getting picked off piecemeal.
Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.
It's the horrible thought we don't want to think but it's a possibility. Question for military analysts: what is the counter to siege / artillery barrage? Guesses: 1. dig deep bunkers to survive the weeks/months of artillery, 2. organise ambushes on the artillery (taking out a few pieces per day will add up over months), or 3. use flying forces (e.g. Bayraktar TB2). Would these counters work; are they likely to occur…
From my view, their best options right now are to
1) minimize the number of directions/locations which they have to defend,
2) shelter and minimize losses during air raids/artillery strikes,
3) blow every single strike they make out of proportion to gain sympathy of Western partners and even Russian citizens. I’d even go so far as to start staging fabricated atrocities - the world has a short attention span and international pressure helps their cause).
4) employ unconventional warfare, including coordinated psychological operations directed towards Russian citizens and military members/their families (e.g., their mothers).
These are all things I’m pretty sure they’re doing right now and is part of their strategy. Authoritarian governments have some positives, but central decision making is also a glaringly vulnerability.
The same person who can decide to start a war, is the same person who can be the target of an entire war effort to try and persuade them to stop the war.
Let’s just say, we probably don’t even hear about/know half of what is going on behind the scenes/clandestinely to sabotage Russia’s potential for success right now.
Hmmmm… I think people are overlooking the fact that Putin is willing to simply lay siege and use artillery to shell the Ukrainians into submission.
Indiscriminate bombardment of cities does very little to achieve any military objectives, especially when a substantial part of the country 'under siege' is actually entirely untouched by enemy troops. In purely military terms, doing that would be almost the same as just having all that artillery sit around and do nothing while the Ukrainians execute major counter-offenses.
If I was to bet on anything, I'd expect Russia to gradually withdraw to the south and then occupy it, digging in for a long negotiation process.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's the horrible thought we don't want to think but it's a possibility. Question for military analysts: what is the counter to siege / artillery barrage? Guesses: 1. dig deep bunkers to survive the weeks/months of artillery, 2. organise ambushes on the artillery (taking out a few pieces per day will add up over months), or 3. use flying forces (e.g. Bayraktar TB2). Would these counters work; are they likely to occur…
Think the biggest issue with the more offensive actions they could take is that it’s very difficult to make troop movements or position your personnel when they are pinned down with artillery. From my view, their best options right now are to 1) minimize the number of directions/locations which they have to defend, 2) shelter and minimize losses during air raids/artillery strikes, 3) blow every single strike they mak…