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Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

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21–30 of 127 posts

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#21
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump wanted to destroy NATO and European unity, he was doing Putin's job for him.

Destroy it by pressuring its members to pay 2% GDP? Or what are you referencing? And how does sending Javelins to Ukraine or blocking Nordstream 2 help Putin?

What did the USA have to do with blocking Nordstream 2? Germany stopped certification, no the USA.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#22
Another issue with this logic is that the probabilities are not independent.

Saying that you have probability x of nuclear war every year and so probability (1-x)^n of no nuclear war in n years assumes independence. In fact, if you don't have nuclear war on year 1, I would assume that the reasons for that lead to inferences and correlations that would affect the probability of nuclear war on year 2, possibly making it lower.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Destroy it by pressuring its members to pay 2% GDP? Or what are you referencing? And how does sending Javelins to Ukraine or blocking Nordstream 2 help Putin?

Trump tried to prevent military aid to Ukraine; dunno how you give him credit for "sending Javelins..."

First off, I assume you're talking about the phone call that the Democrats impeached him for (leading to acquittal) to cover for the Burisma scandal. Accuse your enemy of what you're doing I suppose: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXA--dj2-CY

Second, that aid was never held up and is separate from the Javelins that were sent anyway.

What other President sent Ukraine weapons (not blankets) before this fiasco?

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#24
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Destroy it by pressuring its members to pay 2% GDP? Or what are you referencing? And how does sending Javelins to Ukraine or blocking Nordstream 2 help Putin?

What did the USA have to do with blocking Nordstream 2? Germany stopped certification, no the USA.

Germany just stopped it after Russia attacked Ukraine. Trump held it off with sanctions during his Presidency.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/us-sancti...

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#25
post #3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

Alternate take: all those participants played nice in the hopes that it'd lead to an autocratic take-over of the US, neatly getting rid of their major enemy. In that vein, Trump was just the "best moron" they'd seen in a long while.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#26
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So? Whoever is insaner wins? Nah, remind Putin that we all saw how much the russian army sucks and in case of nuclear war the US still wins after they get out of their bunkers.

with the greatest respect, this is the greatest evidence of insanity I’ve seen in this thread…

This is the only approach that works and won the US the Cold War. A credible threat that if the USSR dared to use nukes, NATO would use nukes against the USSR.

Do you think Putin is a genious and it didn't cross other USSR leaders minds the same idea -- "surely, the USA would not use nukes again us if we used just a few nukes against a weaker NATO member"?

The only sane answer is to absolutely make sure the other guy knows you're going to use nukes the second they use them.

Macron's retort to Putin needs to be shouted from the rooftops -- we also have nukes, you're not that special.

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#27
post #3
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

The problem is when you consider the game-theoretic incentives of "Greater Madman" posturing, through the len of Trivers' "Folly of Fools" [0]: that the most effective way to fool others is often to first fool yourself.

It is entirely plausible that Darwinian selection pressures rewarded not just those who cynically postured as madmen, but those who actually were madmen (within some bound of Minimum Viable Rationality). Such madness only has to beat the average; unlike the MAD dynamics of nuclear weapons, during most of evolutionary history, a catastrophic error of genuine madness didn't result in destruction of the entire species.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Folly_of_Fools

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#28
post #16
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Trump wanted to destroy NATO and European unity, he was doing Putin's job for him.

He wanted them to pay their fair share. They wanted the US to foot their security bill which he balked at. Now we see Germany at least say they will up their contribution and rebuild their military in order to be better prepared. That’s pretty much in line with what he asked from them.

Allies and Former U.S. Officials Fear Trump Could Seek NATO Exit in a Second Term https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/03/us/politics/trump-nato-wi...

“Yeah, the second term,” Trump had said. “We’ll do it in the second term.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/07/13/book-exce...

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#29
post #11
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This makes me chuckle. The Bad Orange Man played the "insane king" role really, really well. Everyone was on their best behaviour until he left office. Peace talks in the Middle East progressed. Russia stayed in their borders. North Korea huffed and puffed and ultimately did nothing. Trade with China became more favorable to the US. It's almost like his foreign policy was effective. To your point: Putin isn't nuts. H…

Trump wanted to destroy NATO and European unity, he was doing Putin's job for him.

Could you do me a little favour? I'd like you to watch a short video[1] from CBS News and explain what exactly Trump was getting wrong about NATO/Russia/Germany.

[1] https://youtube.com/watch?v=M5MJEMHZZsI

(Disclaimer: I agree that orange man bad)

Re: Nuclear war probabilities are useless - counter to the nuclear gambler’s ruin

#30
post #2

> Putin does not roll a dice every morning and launches a nuclear missile if a six shows up. You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

>You wish! The problem here is that Putin is not rational.

"There is no greater danger than underestimating your opponent." - Lao Tzu

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