What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped • Hacker News Board

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#21

Post by selectodude » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:36 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #11

AlwaysRock wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have been bombing cities. I don't think they are trying to limit casualties.

There are always going to be civilian casualties in war, but it sure looks like they are trying to limit them. Would be worth comparing to other, similar conflicts. Surely a full scale air campaign would lead to more civilian casualties?

Russia is using thermobaric and cluster munitions in Kharkiv. I really just don't think that Russia has quite as many PGMs as we think and Russia is close enough to most of Ukraine that they can launch regular old rockets from safe territory on the ground.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#22

Post by mikeyouse » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:37 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #11

AlwaysRock wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have been bombing cities. I don't think they are trying to limit casualties.

There are always going to be civilian casualties in war, but it sure looks like they are trying to limit them. Would be worth comparing to other, similar conflicts. Surely a full scale air campaign would lead to more civilian casualties?

Yeah I agree with this - not sure it'll last but if you look at what the Russians did in Georgia, it's clear they're not in "maximal damage" mode yet. The longer this drags out, the worse it'll get for Ukrainian cities but that's my impression of the lack of bombardment from the skies too.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#23

Post by garou » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:38 PM UTC

Would be possible that their objective was to start by invading easily the Ukraine and Moldova then with close base to NATO old soviet nations start the "real" war to conquer all their "territories" back?

If so, their plan just completely blew up now with their destroyed economy and wasting a lot more of their planned resources to capture only the first step… And Putin don't want to admit/face defeat so is trying to win the Ukraine even with the fact that he already lost.

It all is so insane, it is freaking hard to understand these maniacs…

Slava Ukraini!

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#24

Post by edmundsauto » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:38 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #16

watwut wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war is already in the indiscriminate killing phase and moving towards just destroy city phase. Should be there in few days. Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars.

> Slav fellowship does not work in wars. No fellowship works in wars. Historically combatants have treated their opponents differently based on race and existing cultural attitudes. Don't see why it would be any different this time around.

That doesn’t mean it’s predictable. Could be they treat their fellow Slavs worse!

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#25

Post by brimble » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #7

Just because the US is in love with 'Shock and Awe' doesn't mean everyone else sees it as the appropriate methodology in all circumstances.

Modern militaries that don't like taking tons of unnecessary losses on the ground are in love with controlling the air. It's not like there's a wide variety of proven strategies and countries just pick one that they're "in love" with—there's a fairly narrow set, in these circumstances, which all look pretty similar. It's definitely curious that Russia hasn't committed to establishing and leveraging air superiority, despite dedicating very substantial ground forces and on paper being entirely capable of doing so. One of the following must be true:

1) They do not believe they can, so are not trying.

2) They believe they could, but are choosing not to.

3) They tried, but, for some reason that's not currently clear and isn't evident in battlefield losses, failed. (this is probably the least likely and also the most grave—it suggests severe problems with their command structure)

Whichever's the case, it's a real head-scratcher and is the main reason this isn't going how most folks thought it would.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#26

Post by NicoJuicy » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

Driving bumper to bumper is literally to stay within their air defense missles moving with it.

It's a sign of weakness, not strength.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#27

Post by shepardrtc » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

PaulHoule wrote: post #3

They are afraid of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buk_missile_system a very good technology that the Soviet Union developed which punches above its weight in situations like the Ukraine war because the mobile radars are hard to suppress with these methods https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defen... I have seen a huge number of Buks in various conditions in video footage from the war, one of them wa…

> I wouldn't be surprised if some of the early missile hits on residential buildings were something like this that failed to lock on

That or Russian missile attacks.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#28

Post by jcranmer » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

josefresco wrote: post #14

Mountain_Skies wrote: post #7

Just because the US is in love with 'Shock and Awe' doesn't mean everyone else sees it as the appropriate methodology in all circumstances.

From the article... "That would have been "the logical and widely anticipated next step, as seen in almost every military conflict since 1938," wrote the RUSI think-tank in London"

From the development of air power theory a century ago, it's been widely held that strategic bombing of civilian targets is one of the best ways to quickly end a war. The actual failure of strategic bombing to end wars quickly every time it's been tried notwithstanding.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#29

Post by micromacrofoot » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:39 PM UTC

slavoingilizov wrote: post #13

Many conflicting viewpoints here. Sure, there's been less of a push from Russia than everyone expected, but it's not like Ukraine controls the sky either. Are Ukranians really still flying? If that was the case, the mentioned 40-mile convoy heading to Kiev would have been hit by now, no? Russians driving vehicles bumper to bumper shows VERY strong confidence that they own the sky, so things might not be as rosy for U…

Ukraine really doesn't want war, the odds are stacked against them and without significant outside ground troops they'll be devastated even if Russia is as incompetent as they currently appear.

Killing aggressors is often used as an excuse for the aggressors to be more aggressive and Russia's army is large enough to replace that convoy a few times over without much of a sweat. Violence also helps back the idea that Russia needs to be there to stop the violent nazis that state media has painted Ukrainians to be (goes without saying, this is completely fabricated).

It's also a morale killer; a lot of Russians have Ukrainian relatives. A lot of the captured combatants are very young and seem confused about why they're there (yes, could just be propaganda).

Ukraine just wants them to go home. The Ukrainian people don't really have a conflict with the Russian people.

Re: What happened to Russias Air Force? U.S. officials, experts stumped

#30

Post by NicoJuicy » Wed, Mar 02, 2022, 5:40 PM UTC

jeffreyrogers wrote: post #11

AlwaysRock wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have been bombing cities. I don't think they are trying to limit casualties.

There are always going to be civilian casualties in war, but it sure looks like they are trying to limit them. Would be worth comparing to other, similar conflicts. Surely a full scale air campaign would lead to more civilian casualties?

They used a vacuum bomb. That's not a precise missle...