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Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

lcamtuf.coredump.cx

21–30 of 140 posts

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#21
The thing is, you don't have to be a Doomsday Prepper to just be prepared. It's about mitigating the risk of the disasters you are likely to face in your locality.

I lived through the 2011 Super Outbreak [0]. Following the tornadoes, we had no actual damage (and most places didn't, tornadoes are pretty localized disasters, even in big outbreaks), but we had no power for about eight days because the tornadoes tore up all the transmission lines that feed the town.

The biggest lessons I took from that were:

1. Have enough supplies on hand for the duration of the event. I now keep 10 days of food and water for everyone in the family. It's not a lot and it won't win awards - mostly shelf-stable canned goods and bottled water that gets rotated out regularly - but it will keep us fed and watered. Things like toilet paper, a hatchet, matches, a first aid kit, etc. All in my "tornado box."

2. Keep enough cash on hand to last you 10 days with minimal spending. At one point during the outages that followed the Super Outbreak, we went to a pharmacy to pick up some supplies. Obviously with no power it was cash only. They were "ringing" up by writing things down on paper and manually tallying up with a pocket calculator. We were able to get some essentials using the cash my wife and I had in our wallets, but we were fortunate because we usually don't carry cash. I now keep $500 in cash in a safe in the house.

3. Keep at least a half tank of gas in both our vehicles. Basically enough to get us a few hours away from town. These days if I know we're going to have a big storm I top off. That's enough to get us to our family that lives a couple hours away, should we need to bail.

4. Have a crisis communications plan. When the power went out, initially the cell network stayed up in a degraded form on backup generators. But when those ran out, we lost cell coverage. On the third day I drove about 45 minutes down the highway to where I could get a cell signal and let everyone know we were fine. My Mom was so freaked out that she couldn't reach us after the tornadoes happened that she almost drove over to look for us. Now, they know to wait 48 hours before worrying.

Now, it's easy to say "that was a unique event." And you would be right. The 2011 Super Outbreak was a "once in a generation" event. But I have lived through so many rare events in my life so far that it makes sense to be prepared for another one.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Super_Outbreak

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#22
post #15

For me, planning for a five day power outage in the winter seems like it's something that takes only a limited amount of effort and resources and could come in very handy indeed. Make sure you have enough water (and a way to make it potable), heat, food, light, 1st aid and communications. Going all in and getting a year of supplies seems excessive. As always, YMMV :-) PS: In Germany, the BMI (interior ministry) publi…

This also reduces the first respond burden.

After that a lot of people would dye sooner than later.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#23

Cash on hand, a gun with ammunition, canned food, and bottled water.

What use is cash in the case of a true catastrophe? And I don’t see the benefit of having a gun with or without ammunition. I would never ever be willing to shoot another person (or even an animal), even to protect myself or mine. I’d rather we are raped, tortured, and killed than harm another person.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#24
post #3

Of course, there is a non-trivial cost to spending time dealing with this stuff, particularly the less likely outcomes. As with any risk assessment, one has to judge the probability of certain events and act accordingly. The thing that bugs me about this culture -- and I don't include the author of this piece, who sounds imminently rational and level-headed -- is that a lot of people in this space seem to want these…

You put that beautifully - it really is the case that "normal" preppers seem to be totally relishing becoming the next Mad Max hero, roaming the wilderness with their stash of weaponry...

What's really great about this piece apart from the fact it isn't this ^ is that it is beautifully written...

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#25
I liked the book from lcamtuf "Silence on the Wire" , I used to read what this guy writes. But then as i recall he started to work for google. Probably helped there with browser security and user tracking.

He wrote some good open source tools thou.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#26
post #15

For me, planning for a five day power outage in the winter seems like it's something that takes only a limited amount of effort and resources and could come in very handy indeed. Make sure you have enough water (and a way to make it potable), heat, food, light, 1st aid and communications. Going all in and getting a year of supplies seems excessive. As always, YMMV :-) PS: In Germany, the BMI (interior ministry) publi…

> the BMI (interior ministry)

Remember that these are the guys who coordinated the Corona and Ahrtal responses, and understand that if they say 10 days is enough, it is prudent to plan for 30 days upwards.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#27
post #19

The book Eternity by Greg Bear had an interesting take on this. In that book (spoiler) there is an exchange of nuclear weapons between the U.S. and Russia, which devastates the surface of the Earth. But many people survive, and a society quickly develops post-war. But it is dominated not by those who were most individually prepared, but by those who contributed the most to their neighbors and communities. There is so…

There was a Simpsons episode were they had a bunker but not for enough people. Flanders had not enough space and was left outside. Then everyine started to emerge from the bunker. People who think they want to survive an apocalypse so badly that they romantify a bunker live might not have thought through it deep enough. I want to be protected from a fallout so I can move out of my region after the fallout but that me…

The joke was that it was Flanders' bunker.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#28
This is a much more practical and realistic prepping guide than what a lot of self-labeled preppers tend to practice.

Suggestions such as getting in shape and building good relationships with your neighbors are great suggestions for both good times and disasters. It’s also easy to map these suggestions to recent disasters and see how people who practiced them would be (or were) better off.

There’s a weird element to the prepper community that leans toward a sort of role-play: Some get into prepping because they imagine it will be something like a heroic disaster movie, where they’re going to need a lot of guns and ammunition and a lot of expensive technology gear. Maybe fun to buy and collect, but most of those things are useless in real-world situations where people really need shelter, food, water, and support of the community.

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#29
post #15

For me, planning for a five day power outage in the winter seems like it's something that takes only a limited amount of effort and resources and could come in very handy indeed. Make sure you have enough water (and a way to make it potable), heat, food, light, 1st aid and communications. Going all in and getting a year of supplies seems excessive. As always, YMMV :-) PS: In Germany, the BMI (interior ministry) publi…

> the BMI (interior ministry) Remember that these are the guys who coordinated the Corona and Ahrtal responses, and understand that if they say 10 days is enough, it is prudent to plan for 30 days upwards.

[deleted]

Re: Disaster planning for regular folks (2015)

#30

> In the US in the 90s, your lifetime likelihood of victimization was estimated to be around 80%; the odds of suffering criminal injury hovered at 40%. Any source? These figures seem absurdly high, and I say that as a former resident of NYC in the 90s.

I found a 1987 report from the bureau of justice statistics: https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/lifetime-likelihood... Uses data from approximately the 1975-1985 period, so not about the 90s.

>> Any source? These figures seem absurdly high, and I say that as a former resident of NYC in the 90s.

> Uses data from approximately the 1975-1985 period, so not about the 90s.

Also, wasn't violent crime notoriously high during that period? For instance, my understanding was Times Square used to be gritty and a little dangerous, then Giuliani turned it into a Disneyland in the 90s.

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