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Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

mearsheimer.com

21–30 of 74 posts

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#21

This kind of analysis ignores what Ukraine and Ukrainians actually want. Western Ukraine, at the very least, is extremely nationalist and anti-Russian. Do they not have the right of self-determination as a sovereign country?

The author doesn't care what Ukrainians want, and neither does Russia or the United States for that matter. He's a political realist. I think the author would say that you have the right to self-determination if you actually possess the political capital to have the right to begin with. It is obvious that the Ukrainians do not (whereas the Poles, French, Germans, etc. do).

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#22
post #5
post #4

From the opening paragraph this is extremely dated. Recently, in so many words, Putin himself said he wanted the rebuilding of the old Soviet empire. This might have seemed like a plausible explanation during Crimea. But this is all garbage when hearing straight from Putin a couple of days ago.

Maybe, just maybe, we shouldn't take Putin's word at face value. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

Or maybe we should take Putin's words more seriously? He was planning to invade Ukraine for at least a decade now, and was quite openly talking about it - all those times when he claimed that "The fall of Soviet Union was a great tragedy" it was quite obvious that he'll try to rebuild it, in its former borders. Western leaders chose to ignore all warning signs because of they greed (looking at you, Germany, with your Nord Stream 2), and that's how we end up in this mess today.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#23
post #4

From the opening paragraph this is extremely dated. Recently, in so many words, Putin himself said he wanted the rebuilding of the old Soviet empire. This might have seemed like a plausible explanation during Crimea. But this is all garbage when hearing straight from Putin a couple of days ago.

I've collected the speeches on my website. He didn't say that. http://pauleccles.co.za/

He's quite critical of the Soviet Union.

"Lenin criticised this plan and suggested making concessions to the nationalists, whom he called “independents” at that time. Lenin’s ideas of what amounted in essence to a confederative state arrangement and a slogan about the right of nations to self-determination, up to secession, were laid in the foundation of Soviet statehood. Initially they were confirmed in the Declaration on the Formation of the USSR in 1922, and later on, after Lenin’s death, were enshrined in the 1924 Soviet Constitution.

"This immediately raises many questions. The first is really the main one: why was it necessary to appease the nationalists, to satisfy the ceaselessly growing nationalist ambitions on the outskirts of the former empire? What was the point of transferring to the newly, often arbitrarily formed administrative units – the union republics – vast territories that had nothing to do with them? Let me repeat that these territories were transferred along with the population of what was historically Russia.

...

"When it comes to the historical destiny of Russia and its peoples, Lenin’s principles of state development were not just a mistake; they were worse than a mistake, as the saying goes. This became patently clear after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991.

...

"In fact, what Stalin fully implemented was not Lenin’s but his own principles of government. But he did not make the relevant amendments to the cornerstone documents, to the Constitution, and he did not formally revise Lenin’s principles underlying the Soviet Union. From the look of it, there seemed to be no need for that, because everything seemed to be working well in conditions of the totalitarian regime, and outwardly it looked wonderful, attractive and even super-democratic.

"And yet, it is a great pity that the fundamental and formally legal foundations of our state were not promptly cleansed of the odious and utopian fantasies inspired by the revolution, which are absolutely destructive for any normal state. As it often happened in our country before, nobody gave any thought to the future.

...

"I would like to repeat that today such a centre has already been deployed in Ochakov. In the 18th century, soldiers of Alexander Suvorov fought for this city. Owing to their courage, it became part of Russia. Also in the 18th century, the lands of the Black Sea littoral, incorporated in Russia as a result of wars with the Ottoman Empire, were given the name of Novorossiya (New Russia). Now attempts are being made to condemn these landmarks of history to oblivion, along with the names of state and military figures of the Russian Empire without whose efforts modern Ukraine would not have many big cities or even access to the Black Sea."

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#24
post #4

From the opening paragraph this is extremely dated. Recently, in so many words, Putin himself said he wanted the rebuilding of the old Soviet empire. This might have seemed like a plausible explanation during Crimea. But this is all garbage when hearing straight from Putin a couple of days ago.

He also said that he wanted to negotiate a peace agreement which excludes NATO from Ukraine. Why not take that statement at face value too?

Russia has already guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in 1994. Oops then helped itself to Crimea and the “people’s republics”.

Now “don’t arm Ukraine and we pinky promise not to attack it further”? Hmm...

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#25
post #4

From the opening paragraph this is extremely dated. Recently, in so many words, Putin himself said he wanted the rebuilding of the old Soviet empire. This might have seemed like a plausible explanation during Crimea. But this is all garbage when hearing straight from Putin a couple of days ago.

He also said that he wanted to negotiate a peace agreement which excludes NATO from Ukraine. Why not take that statement at face value too?

He said he wanting negotiations and then attacked days later. Suggesting we take that statement face value is patently absurd.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#26

Sounds like a useful idiot to me. Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time. The Kaliningrad region is Europe’s most militarised area, with SAM and tactical ballistic weaponry extending over most of Poland and the Baltic’s, quite possibly most of Europe in fact. Russian nuke-capable bombers graze NATO airspaces on an almost dai…

> Russia has been dislocating extremely threatening weaponry right on NATO doorstep and treating it as its holy right, for a long time.

You got this exactly backwards. NATO has been expanding towards Russia and is seen as aggressive by Russia. NATO/US "graze" Russian and Chinese airspace aswell - whats your point? This is just military tactics 101.

>But Ukraine thinks about joining NATO and Russia has no choice but carve out some of its territory? And it’s the west’s fault?

Ukraine is a buffer state. When your buffer state is being armed and funded by your political enemies, you draw a red line. When you cross a red line and you fail a diplomatic negotiations, what do you expect to happen?

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#27

This kind of analysis ignores what Ukraine and Ukrainians actually want. Western Ukraine, at the very least, is extremely nationalist and anti-Russian. Do they not have the right of self-determination as a sovereign country?

There is a reason Mearsheimer is part of an IR school of thought called "Realists." This analysis doesn't focus much on self-determinism or international law because it assumes that these concepts don't have much influence. I also think that it's regrettable, but people making foreign policy calls should be aware of this line of thinking.

For what it's worth, what Mearsheimer is saying here about NATO expansion being destabilizing is pretty much exactly what Putin is saying in his various speeches.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#28
Shockingly prescient and a well-done analysis in general, but I still don’t buy the “Putin had no other choice” argument.

It boils down to the equivalent of the “It wasn’t my fault that I raped the woman, she wore a short skirt!” bullshit argument.

I understand the “this is how realpolitik works” line of thought, I really do. But it doesn’t change who’s at fault here.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He also said that he wanted to negotiate a peace agreement which excludes NATO from Ukraine. Why not take that statement at face value too?

He said he wanting negotiations and then attacked days later. Suggesting we take that statement face value is patently absurd.

It was many weeks and the US basically said they would not even consider the main points at issue.

Re: Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West's Fault (2014) [pdf]

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He also said that he wanted to negotiate a peace agreement which excludes NATO from Ukraine. Why not take that statement at face value too?

Russia has already guaranteed Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in 1994. Oops then helped itself to Crimea and the “people’s republics”. Now “don’t arm Ukraine and we pinky promise not to attack it further”? Hmm...

If you take as an assumption that you can't negotiate with them then it's you who isn't willing to negotiate not them.
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