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Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

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Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#21

Post by weego »

gameswithgo wrote: post #6

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elder…

"Tesla Autopilot: Marginally better than the worst drivers on the road" is quite the sales pitch

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#22

Post by paxys »

I have felt since day 1 that "autopilot is better than the average driver!" is the most misleading fact/statistic in the industry.

The "average driver" involved in an accident includes drunk drivers, road ragers, habitual speeders, teenagers, people driving in bad conditions (rain, snow), people driving without sleep and several other risky groups that most people buying Teslas aren't part of. To be worth it, the car has to reduce my personal accident risk under the conditions I usually drive, otherwise I prefer to keep my own hands behind the wheel over handing over control to an algorithm.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#23

Post by gnicholas »

yrral wrote: post #12

How about the predominately male ownership of teslas causing higher accident rates. I see the paper adjusts for age and road type but missing gender is a pretty big slip-up? I didn't read the paper fully but grepped for "gender" and "sex" and couldn't find anything.

Good question! According to one study in LA, [1] men cause 60% of accidents. I do wonder, however, the extent to which this gap fades with age. Given that most Tesla owners are not super young, it might not make as much of a difference as the 60% number (assuming it is nationally representative) would indicate.

1: https://xtown.la/2019/12/12/women-drivers-maybe-we-need-more...

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#24

Post by rzimmerman »

gnicholas wrote: post #15
gameswithgo wrote: post #6

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elder…

> the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! Presumably drivers take over when it makes mistakes, which tilts the stats a bit. > When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot. As a parent, I wonder about what safety tech I would let my kids use when learning to drive. I want to make sure they fully learn how to drive, which makes me think I shouldn't let them use too much semi-autonomous tech. At the sa…

I also think it will be important for any future teenager of mine to learn to drive without the regenerative braking that Teslas default to. It’s a much better driving experience IMO, but I worry a new driver won’t learn the “oh no hit the brakes!” reflex if they rarely use the brake pedal. I’d probably force them to learn with the car set to “normal” ICE/idle—style for the first few months.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#25

Post by justapassenger »

gameswithgo wrote: post #6

EDIT: After reading the full paper and not just the twitter graphs, some of what I said is wrong. That is, they also controlled for age, and when controlling for age and road type, autpilot was just worse. On the one hand I had the same suspicion about the unadjusted data, on the other hand the fact that autopilot isn't worse is pretty promising! However, average human rates include people driving drunk, tired, elder…

> So at 43 when I am driving sober, I'm probably safer not using autopilot. When I was 19 probably safer to use autopilot.

That’s very dangerous thinking. Autopilot isn’t self driving and will actively try to kill you, from time to time, like all driver assist systems. 19 year old are much more likely to abuse autopilot and drive distracted/drunk. Only reason those systems aren’t crashing left and right is because drivers are paying attention.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#26

Post by Someone1234 »

borski wrote: post #16

We need a startup that can test and correct dubious statistical claims, or verify good ones. I would definitely pay for that.

That would be cool, but companies are often not forthcoming with the raw data needed to do such analysis independently (particularly if it could make them look bad).

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#28

Post by ProAm »

kadoban wrote: post #14
ProAm wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you have taken a course in statistics you'll know its always possible to make the numbers looks favorable to your cause. It would take several unrelated blind third parties to do this correctly and no public company will ever let that happen, especially Tesla.

They should be forced to let that happen. It's crucial for public safety.

Public knowledge of safety affects stock price and brand recognition. Will never happen.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#29

Post by dahfizz »

rurp wrote: post #18
lordnacho wrote: post #3

Wow, adjusted for driver age the difference vanishes. That's quite an interesting observation, and it shows the importance of proper statistics. It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats, it's often only when someone takes the time to dig into it that we discover this kind of thing. I am not holding my breath waiting for the common consumer to understand statistical critical thinking though.…

> It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats Companies saying "trust us, we have the data to prove it" while keeping that data secret should be ignored. Especially if their CEO has a long history of blatant dishonesty! I'm most annoyed that people gave any weight to Tesla's safety statistics claims in the first place.

> Companies saying "trust us, we have the data to prove it" while keeping that data secret should be ignored.

While true, I do not think this is a great heuristic. How would the average person know whether the "data" is available? Most people don't even know what "data" really is. They have never heard of CSVs or SQL. We need a better signal for consumers to know what they can and can't trust.

Re: Normalized crash data shows Autopilot is much less safe than Tesla claims

#30

Post by Out_of_Characte »

rurp wrote: post #18
lordnacho wrote: post #3

Wow, adjusted for driver age the difference vanishes. That's quite an interesting observation, and it shows the importance of proper statistics. It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats, it's often only when someone takes the time to dig into it that we discover this kind of thing. I am not holding my breath waiting for the common consumer to understand statistical critical thinking though.…

> It also raises questions about companies producing their own stats Companies saying "trust us, we have the data to prove it" while keeping that data secret should be ignored. Especially if their CEO has a long history of blatant dishonesty! I'm most annoyed that people gave any weight to Tesla's safety statistics claims in the first place.

Companies dont validate their claims, only provide data and statistics to back up marketing angles. There's no point to it either since it would still be a conflict of interest when you've researched your own product and found no errors in it.
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