Live data from Hacker News

Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

newyorker.com

21–30 of 41 posts

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#21
post #3

I'm not certain that cybernetics or AI or whatever can solve the issues inherent in central planning. As soon as a measure becomes a metric is ceases to become a good measurement of success. The Soviet system failed both because the planners couldn't deal with modeling a complex economy, but also because they had no idea how much a given good cost to make, produce, or deliver to its point of sale. It failed because a…

The notion that Cybersyn was a central planning system is common but untrue. That's not what cybernetics, which drew primarily from systems theory approaches, was ever about. The so called 'cybernetic factory' at the heart of the project was about making real time information exchange between several levels of hierarchy possible, with much delegated to the factories themselves. Centralized decision-making was reserve…

I've expensively studied Soviet central planning, and I'm hard pressed to tell a difference here. But I'll go read that book you've liked.

Ironically, it's the tankies (neostalinists) who seem to be the loudest defenders of it. If it's propaganda it seemingly worked on the wrong audience.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#22
post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Central planning works horribly and there's wide evidence of that. > decentralized market regulation by supply and demand is the Bitcoin style of solving the problem. This is word salad. The criticism of bitcoin - that I would absolutely agree with - is that it wastes resources to solve the same problem that a SQL database solves, just more inefficiently. In order to solve the same problem a market solves you wou…

> In order to solve the same problem a market solves you would need to take into account the preferences of millions of independent actors and mash them together into a Frankenstein solution, which is clearly beyond the capabilities of any government, with or without computers. That is like trying to model the exponential growth of laternfish[1] by emulating the behavior of each individual fish and then claiming it i…

> The free market itself is a giant computation engine that solves the problem of economic planning

No. This is the issue. Markets solve a different problem. If I like A better than B and you like B better than A, this has to be taken into account for the eventual solution to be Pareto-optimal.

You would need to set prices for all of the hundreds of thousands of goods and services a modern economy produces, which requires access to an amount of information that no entity can possibly handle. It's not just computational power, it's a fundamentally intractable problem that is only solvable if you make wild assumptions.

All of that only to get a solution at most as good as the market equilibrium.

> The comparison is meaningless, as the Soviet Union and the US had vastly different starting conditions

Come on, this is a total charade. Don't want to compare it to the US? How about Japan? Or any other first-world country of your choice? Or how about West and East Berlin?

> Could it be that your views on the efficiency of central planing are more based on prejudices that looking at actual empirical data?

Yes, I have priors, as we all do. I believe my priors are correctly adjusted given the available data.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#23
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just saw this, after writing my lengthy reply to you elsewhere (plus a couple of edits), and I think we agree on quite a bit. Cybersyn certainly was a substantial improvement in thinking over strict central planning. At the same time I think it still it aimed for unnecessary levels of complexity vs. using market mechanisms as a large part of both the input and control mechanisms, and trying to assert too much control…

And how is the global market not unnecessarily complex? It is optimized for the wrong metric (profit) at the cost of every other one, causing additional complexity and hurting overall resiliency. The market is a constant failure at the only thing it should do, properly distributing resources. It's failing clamorously to distribute covid vaccines globally, for example. Additionally, it is easily exploitable everytime…

You're conflating market mechanisms as a general concept to the current global market. You can use market mechanisms as a resource allocation method in all kinds of different models. Market mechanisms are used in all kinds of settings to match prices of all kinds of things, and they work well when they are designed to be fit for purpose.

A market is ultimately nothing more than the iterative application of a function that takes a list of buy and sell orders and outputs matches. It can be entirely unregulated or however regulated you want. There can be no constraints on who accesses it, or lots. There can be synthetic manipulation on one or both sides to adjust the functioning of the market, or not.

I'd argue for all kinds of regulations - I don't think unregulated markets are a good thing at all. But a well regulated market is simply a consensus mechanism that reduces what is a fundamentally computationally intractable control problem if you try to handle it in a centralised manner by dividing it into a range of smaller problems and distribution the effort of figuring out the best way of meetings goals. It's never going to give an optimal outcome, but you can mitigate the risk that it will produce really bad outcomes, and get closer to decent results.

I'm also not arguing for one market, but for many, I favour using market mechanisms to price externalities whenever possible.

The current global market is not set up to "properly distributing resources" because that is not the goal of its participants, so you have a good argument against current global markets for products. If you were to create a market actually intended to fairly distribute scarce healthcare supplies and it would look very different, with pricing based on e.g. predicted outcomes and benefits for different bidders.

You can still plan in the face of well regulated markets, but the planning process would involve packaging up incentives and regulating the pricing of externalities without trying to guess what will work best in ways that forces the planners to become experts in everything.

> The lack of control you seem to present as an advantage is exactly what makes it controllable by a very small minority of powerful entities.

Even if we were to agree this was unavoidable (I'd agree it's unavoidable in an unregulated market with vastly different access to resources, but that is just one subset of possible markets), a planned system is potentially controlled by an even smaller entity of even more powerful entities. We've seen that fail time and time again, because of the hubris of people with power thinking they knew best. Decentralising power is if nothing else a risk mitigation, and the failure of current markets to do so well enough is not an argument for a mechanism with a distinctly worse track record.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#24
I've come to the conclusion that people only still talk about Project Cybersyn today because it was visually arresting. There's no clear lineage to modern data systems, but it's cool in certain circles for various reasons including the funky 1970s data seats.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#25
In the Soviet Union there was a big push from cyberneticians to apply a cybernetic control system for the entire economy. The US elite had a pro-free market discourse but internally had a big fear this will make the Soviet Union economy unsurpassable, and was one of the main factors to create something like ARPANET (see [1]):

The CIA set up a special branch to study the Soviet cybernetics menace. It issued numerous reports, pointing out, among other strategic threats, the Soviet plans to build a 'Unified Information Net.' Based on CIA reports, in October 1962 President Kennedy's top aid wrote in an internal memo that the 'all-out Soviet commitment to cybernetics' would give the Soviets 'a tremendous advantage.' He warned that 'by 1970 the USSR may have a radically new production technology, involving total enterprises or complexes of industries, managed by closed loop, feedback control employing self-teaching computers.' If the American negligence of cybernetics continues, he concluded, 'we are finished.'

[1] https://balticworlds.com/the-cybernetics-scare-and-the-origi...

But this plan was not implemented, because the stalinist bureaucracy was afraid they can lose his privileges:

Glushkov's proposal faced opposition on two sides. Industrial managers and government bureaucrats opposed the computerization of economic planning and management because it exposed their inefficiency, reduced their power and control of information, and ultimately threatened to make them redundant. On the other hand, liberal economic reformers viewed Glushkov's proposal as a conservative attempt to further centralize the control of the economy and to suppress the autonomy of small economic units. A controversy erupted.

[2] https://web.mit.edu/slava/homepage/articles/Gerovitch-InterN...

There are modern thinkers working on this same line:

[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Towards_a_New_Socialism

[4] https://www.amazon.com/Peoples-Republic-Walmart-Corporations...

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#26
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What it was is essentially a supply chain management system... Something every big coorporation does today -- some of them on a scale comparable to a nation state.

Then why shouldn't states do the same?

I am not arguing for that, they should when the economic situation demands it. And they should be equally eager to drop it when the situation changes. I am all for more pragmatism and less ideology in terms of economic policy decisions, its not a one-way street.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#27
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The notion that Cybersyn was a central planning system is common but untrue. That's not what cybernetics, which drew primarily from systems theory approaches, was ever about. The so called 'cybernetic factory' at the heart of the project was about making real time information exchange between several levels of hierarchy possible, with much delegated to the factories themselves. Centralized decision-making was reserve…

I've expensively studied Soviet central planning, and I'm hard pressed to tell a difference here. But I'll go read that book you've liked. Ironically, it's the tankies (neostalinists) who seem to be the loudest defenders of it. If it's propaganda it seemingly worked on the wrong audience.

Err, extensively even.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#28
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And how is the global market not unnecessarily complex? It is optimized for the wrong metric (profit) at the cost of every other one, causing additional complexity and hurting overall resiliency. The market is a constant failure at the only thing it should do, properly distributing resources. It's failing clamorously to distribute covid vaccines globally, for example. Additionally, it is easily exploitable everytime…

You're conflating market mechanisms as a general concept to the current global market. You can use market mechanisms as a resource allocation method in all kinds of different models. Market mechanisms are used in all kinds of settings to match prices of all kinds of things, and they work well when they are designed to be fit for purpose. A market is ultimately nothing more than the iterative application of a function…

You're largely hitting the points I wanted to make, there fundamentally is no replacement for the market price setting mechanism.

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#29
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>the need to respond dynamically is pretty much inescapable and then it would seem better to lean into that. I don't quite understand your point. Could you elaborate further? What do you mean by leaning into the dynamism?

What I mean is that instead of trying to plan and control details that requires all kinds of complex contingencies to even try to keep things under control, look at whether or not you need to control them or can avoid the need to exercise control wherever possible. E.g. I get the desire to control prices - it's a way of feeling that one has control over important social goals. If you genuinely want to address poverty…

I don't think we can actually attribute the refusal of markets as a Bolshevik position. Lenin was very favourable to the use of markets, while Stalin later was opposed it to it in no small part because he felt it wasn't developing heavy industry rapidly enough, which turned out to be crucial to winning WW2.

The post-Stalin dogma as well as the calcification of the Soviet economy was an impediment to the trials of such planning, but some Soviet economists like Kantorovich in fact proposed essentially the same system. It was refused for two reasons - large computational cost at a time where computers were quite weak, and cynical Soviet bureaucrats not wanting to lose their power, hence many opposed it. But quite a few were indeed supportive.

Later in the 70s, the Soviets did adopt some market economic implements in the form of cooperatives, so I don't think they were unconditionally opposed to it.

Later, there would be the issue that any planning system would be opposed not only by pro-planning bureaucrats, but also by the rising anti-communist faction of the party.

Interestingly, I think it is Lenin that most acutely understood the difficulty of central planning, hence why he proposed the NEP that Stalin later dismantled.

On the rest however, I think we are both in agreement :)

Re: Project Cybersyn and the Origins of the Big Data Nation (2014)

#30

I've come to the conclusion that people only still talk about Project Cybersyn today because it was visually arresting. There's no clear lineage to modern data systems, but it's cool in certain circles for various reasons including the funky 1970s data seats.

I don't think I agree. The idea to have a networked control system with both direct ways to measure the behaviour of the real system as well as a model was quite novel to Cybersyn.

Directly as a result of it and the work Stafford Beer did on it, we got the whole field of system dynamics.

Also, Cybersyn was a pioneer in the idea of complex control systems with multiple humans in the loop.

Post reply on HN