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Omicron Update, Dec 2

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

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Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#21

Post by gunfighthacksaw »

adam_arthur wrote: post #6
spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

My problem is that these restrictions only apply to the common folk, political and business elites seem to have a pass… Even golden boy Trudeau who can do no wrong was spotted in Ottawa breaking newly announced restrictions like goddamn.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#22

Post by simonh »

adam_arthur wrote: post #6
spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z

Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#23

Post by jrochkind1 »

sjwalter wrote: post #11
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

They're only arbitrary and pointless if you believe the goal is public health. Imagine seeing what's going on in eg Australia and still thinking this is about a virus!

What's going on in Australia, you mean the international travel restrictions?

One of the things I see "going on in Australia". Australia has had around 8 covid deaths per 100K population. Compared to, say, the United States with 237 covid deaths per 100K population. I see that and still think it's about a virus, yup.

In general over the past two years as a whole, people in Australia have lived with fewer restrictions or changes to everyday life than here in the US, with an order of magnitude fewer deaths. I still think it's about a virus, yup.

(I do not necessarily endorse international travel restrictions, including the ones the USA is enforcing, which seem to be pretty fruitless, and in some cases stricter than Australia's. I think they are mistaken. But it's about a virus, yup. Among other things, certainly US general xenophobia and anti-immigrant sentiment are involved in ours too. I too worry that we are imposing controls we will never see the end of, including related to border-crossing, which suits the agenda of some just fine. I'm sure it's about more than one thing in Australia too. Human things usually are. But it's about a virus, yup.).

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#24

Post by digitalsushi »

christmm wrote: post #18

I find that the most relevant information is given by Dr Fauci. Everyone needs to trust the science and Dr Fauci, and stop reading anything else when we know the rest is misinformation.

I trust science and I trust Fauci but if I am learning anything from the current tense, it's that we should push back on idolization

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#25

Post by beagle3 »

zamalek wrote: post #10
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

Sweden’s death rate is worse than its neighbours but way better than e.g. Belgium and Britain that did lock down.

It’s also significantly better (x2-x4) than Israel by every excess death measure, where Israel locked down super seriously and vaccinated super quickly.

So you can’t conclude “it didn’t end well”

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#26

Post by adam_arthur »

simonh wrote: post #22
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

Widespread vaccination dramatically reduces the rate at which the virus spreads, by more than 80%. It's not a binary does/doesn't stop spreading. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02054-z Vaccination rates in the US have been abysmal by developed world status, precisely because so many of you don't think vaccination works. It does work to dramatically slow spreading, but only if enough people take it up.

Yes, of course.

But the virus is endemic and vaccines will not stop it from being caught by everybody at some point.

You can't lockdown the virus away. You can't stop the spread by canceling flights either. Just seems like awful policymaking driven by virtue signaling.

Covid is here forever, and that's life.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#27

Post by Swenrekcah »

sjwalter wrote: post #13
zamalek wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden did a nationwide study, it didn't end well.[1] Several of the bad variants also originated from countries which did not participate in full lockdown (India, Brazil). Edit: if Omicron becomes a second 2020, I'd pay close attention to how Sweden reacts, given their recent experiences. [1]: https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-covid-no-lockdown-str...

And omicron arose in vaccinated people and traveled the world in the respiratory tracts of the fully vaxxed.

Do you have a source for the origin claim?

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#28

Post by spaniard89277 »

gunfighthacksaw wrote: post #21
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

My problem is that these restrictions only apply to the common folk, political and business elites seem to have a pass… Even golden boy Trudeau who can do no wrong was spotted in Ottawa breaking newly announced restrictions like goddamn.

It happened here too. I guess people seeing politicians trying to hop to be the first in the line to get vaccines helped vaccination.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#29

Post by junon »

adam_arthur wrote: post #6
spaniard89277 wrote: post #3

Well if Rt is ~3 I guess we're going to have another ride in Spain. I don't think this country can handle another lockdown. In my region people is pretty sensible about mask use etc. We relaxed a bit, but people still take care. I've been to Madrid and Barcelona for work and people behaves like this never happened. I hope I get a chance to a boost shot, because I know a couple of dudes that got covid and the side eff…

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

> Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading

There is not widespread vaccination, though. That's where your argument falls apart.

Re: Omicron Update, Dec 2

#30

Post by pfisch »

sjwalter wrote: post #11
adam_arthur wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone done the math on whether these lockdown policies have produced objectively better outcomes over the long term? Given that widespread vaccination does not stop infection from spreading, lockdowns seem arbitrary and pointless. Especially when you consider economic consequences, which also inflicts very real pain and suffering on the populace. Anecdotally, it doesn't seem to have made any difference at all in…

They're only arbitrary and pointless if you believe the goal is public health. Imagine seeing what's going on in eg Australia and still thinking this is about a virus!

Pretty sure it is about the virus and not some loony toon new world order thing or whatever the conspiracy of the week is.
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