12 Predictions for the Future of Music • Hacker News Board

Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music

#21

Post by sage76 » Thu, Oct 21, 2021, 10:17 PM UTC

saaaaaam wrote: post #18

sage76 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But if people are willing to spend $600 on tickets to Taylor Swift or Drake or whoever, but not on unknown artists, then obviously there is some brand recognition going on right? Not to mention, some artists can sell out stadiums but most cannot.

Yes. This is my point. Recorded music is top of funnel. Other stuff that drives people to that conversion moment where they buy the $600 ticket for the live show. An artist brand is part of that “stuff in between”.

Gotcha.

So the funnel must be having a way steeper dropoff than in the CD era?

Far more music being released but getting people to come listen to it live being very hard?

I read this article which seems to support that hypothesis : https://towardsdatascience.com/hot-or-not-analyzing-60-years...

It talks about there being fewer artists on the charts, and "a reality where there are a few artists releasing a ton of music — most of it doesn’t last, but the songs that do stick, stay for long".

Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music

#22

Post by saaaaaam » Thu, Oct 21, 2021, 11:29 PM UTC

sage76 wrote: post #20

saaaaaam wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I understand it correctly, that would mean targeting very specific audiences based on genre and similarity to other artists a user listens to? Correct. Indie labels are beginning to realise this and the good ones are bringing huge returns - and in turn being bought up by the majors. The majors also do it very well - you just don’t always see it so clearly because they are able to invest so much more broadly. But a…

> They wanted to do a single. Were they musicians? Like many of these people posting cover songs on YT?

Nope. General comedic YouTube japes. Some singing but it wasn’t their primary thing.

Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music

#23

Post by saaaaaam » Thu, Oct 21, 2021, 11:36 PM UTC

sage76 wrote: post #21

saaaaaam wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. This is my point. Recorded music is top of funnel. Other stuff that drives people to that conversion moment where they buy the $600 ticket for the live show. An artist brand is part of that “stuff in between”.

Gotcha. So the funnel must be having a way steeper dropoff than in the CD era? Far more music being released but getting people to come listen to it live being very hard? I read this article which seems to support that hypothesis : https://towardsdatascience.com/hot-or-not-analyzing-60-years... It talks about there being fewer artists on the charts, and "a reality where there are a few artists releasing a ton of musi…

Lower barriers to entry mean there’s more music than ever before. In the CD era getting music out to an audience was complex and expensive. Write a song. Go into a studio with an engineer. Record on tape. Multitrack. Mix. Master. Press discs. Get them into shops. Get someone to write about them. Get some radio play.

Now you can write and record in an iPhone and build an audience on SoundCloud. Will that audience come to a live show? Almost certainly not.

I used to book bands and promote shows. People would push artists to me based on “they have loads of Facebook fans…” which normally equalled no ticket sales.

What sells tickets? Major investment by labels and live promoters - and longevity. Artists don’t sell out global arena tours overnight.

The music needs to stick but the artists need to stick - and their partners need to stick.

Re: 12 Predictions for the Future of Music

#24

Post by rchaud » Fri, Oct 22, 2021, 2:09 PM UTC

sage76 wrote: post #17

rchaud wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't that exactly how festivals work? There are 1-2 headliners that are well known, and 20 other obscure bands to fill out the weekend. You can buy a ticket for a day, but you can't only buy a ticket for a particular performance.

So if the premise is correct, festivals would be making a bigger % of live music revenues?

Tours by mega-bands like U2, Taylor Swift, Coldplay, Rolling Stones, etc. can cover 50+ cities and make hundreds of millions. The combined revenue they generate probably dwarfs festivals. But festivals happen annually and those tours do not.