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Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

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Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#21

Post by throwaway2568 »

agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

Yeah, first realised this when it became clear that all the "breakthrough infections" (with the 0.1% rate for fully vaxed) were actually "breakthrough hospitalizations" and that the US was not actually tracking the former consistently.

For the second point I guess it depends on the jurisdiction, there was a nice chart from the CDC in an Ars article indicating how you should still expect a relatively higher rate of vaccinated people in hospital when the vaccination rate is high (and also less people in hospital overall!).

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/pandemic-of-unvaccin...

In Ontario they are quite open about most details, you get breakdowns like what you describe daily and a nice dashboard from the science table.

https://www.cp24.com/mobile/news/ontario-sets-new-multi-mont...

https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/ontario-dashboard/

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#22

Post by snowwrestler »

agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

Here is what the Kaiser Foundation says about the U.S.:

> Almost all (more than 9 in 10) COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have occurred among people who are unvaccinated or not yet fully vaccinated, in those states reporting breakthrough data (see Figure 2).

More: https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrou...

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#23

Post by nradov »

refurb wrote: post #10
probablypower wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>you'd probably want a breakdown of what percentage are foreigners versus residents, and that's not available as far as I'm aware. That data is available here: https://www.covid.is/data Data on vaccinations is here: https://www.covid.is/statistical-information-on-vaccination Even though half of hospitalisations are vaccinated people, it is important to consider that we are now 71% vaccinated (84% for people over 12 y…

Your probabilities are confounded by asymptomatic cases, in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. In regularly tested populations, the number of asymptomatic cases can be quite high (50%). Unless they are tested and identified they will never be counted.

The CDC estimates that only 15% of cases are completely asymptomatic. But most have mild symptoms.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#24

Post by criticaltinker »

nradov wrote: post #23
refurb wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your probabilities are confounded by asymptomatic cases, in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. In regularly tested populations, the number of asymptomatic cases can be quite high (50%). Unless they are tested and identified they will never be counted.

The CDC estimates that only 15% of cases are completely asymptomatic. But most have mild symptoms. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burd...

That CDC estimate is based on a simple probabilistic multiplier model from data up to Nov 2020 [0].

More recent meta-analyses [1] and large population-based serological studies [2] suggest a lower bound for the asymptomatic proportion to be at least ~33%. For young adults the upper bound for asymptomatic rate is likely between 65%-90% (95% CI) [2]. Considering other recent evidence that cases may be massively underreported [3], the true asymptomatic proportion could be even higher than what has been suggested.

[0] Estimated Incidence of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Illness and Hospitalization—United States, February–September 2020 https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/72/12/e1010/6000389

[1] The Proportion of SARS-CoV-2 Infections That Are Asymptomatic https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/M20-6976

[2] Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population: Analysis of nationwide serosurvey data in the Netherlands https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-021-00768-y

[3] Evaluating the massive underreporting and undertesting of COVID-19 cases in multiple global epicenters https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S253104372...

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#25

Post by defaultprimate »

agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

>Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital?

An even better question is, how many are obese or have similar detrimental self-inflicted health conditions? All the data up to this point shows that obesity is more highly correlated with severe illness than vaccination status.

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#26

Post by tynpeddler »

helge9210 wrote: post #17
agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

> What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? According to https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-... > in Israel last week around 60% of critical cases are fully vaccinated.

That number does not mean what people think it does and is being bandied around as a result of extreme statistics illiteracy:

https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-...

Also, what is the world is going on in that preprint[0]? I can not follow their conclusions in Table 1 model 1.

Looking at Table 1 - Model 1, it looks like the 40+, early vaccinated cohort has only a 15%-30% chance of being infected as compared to the 40+, late vaccinated cohort.

The paper itself says they did some adjustments for co-morbidities, but has no description of what they did. So it looks like the paper's conclusion is directly the opposite of what's being shown in the Table 1 - Model 1.

[0]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.29.21261317v...

Re: Jabs mostly fend off the Delta strain but breakthroughs are infectious

#27

Post by [deleted] »

helge9210 wrote: post #17
agent327 wrote: post #3

I hate how every single article about covid leaves out a great many details. For example: - Ok, so if you are vaccinated you can get infected. There's no word about the seriousness of the infection though. - Hospital beds are filling up again. What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? etc.

> What's the mix of vaccinated and unvaccinated people in the hospital? According to https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/08/grim-warning-israel-... > in Israel last week around 60% of critical cases are fully vaccinated.

[deleted]
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