I think no one will win full self driving until artificial general intelligence exists.
For those in the future, I bet by 2035 there will be no car that can take you coast to coast with you ever having intervene.
Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
21–30 of 37 posts
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#22is there a good way to "short" this industry of bullshit artists, via options or something
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#23The missing possibility is that no one wins generalized self-driving. Self-driving is not a solvable or a winnable problem, because the problem or question isn’t defined. It’s a probabilistic space, where the world presents scenarios, and a computer must make a “correct” or “good” decision as often as possible, for the widest range of inputs. Because there isn’t a grand unified formula for self-driving, I’m not even…
Why is this so complicated, to me self-driving being solved is when I get into a car to get to work and don't have to touch any controls other than the AC maybe. Pretty well-defined, no?
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#24"A decade from now, we'll be able to look back and say which companies or approaches were on the right track. For now, we can only guess." My first thought was that a decade from now there will be a very limited number of self driving cars on the road, still. Mostly because people (not all people, but most people) will be very scared of the technology, no matter how good it is. Every time there's an accident it'll ma…
I think this is an overly cynical take.
If the technology gets there, I think there will be massive uptake for in the urban commuter and taxi markets.
when pitting Actual safety + massive convenience VS. fear, I think the former will win out for a large part of the market.
I also think the majority of people would pay more for a self driven taxi than a person driven taxi. Some reasons might be personal space, privacy, safety, and reliability in terms of dispatch and cancelled rides.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#25Google will spin out Waymo and GM will buy it. Mark my words. Tesla is the only serious contender so far. They're the only company with real life cars on real life roads all over the world. It's not just the technology, it's deployment of the technology at scale . It's a platform. Comma.ai is good too and I think it'll be a great option for adding AI-like capabilities to future and past "dumb" cars. I see right aroun…
My pet theory is that Apple won’t produce a car; rather, they’ll produce a car cockpit. A kit of standard, high quality parts, comprising everything a driver touches. So Ford would make a car, Apple would make the screen, steering wheel, mirrors, etc. Might be a trim level or package on existing car models. Every time I drive an unfamiliar car, I see so much opportunity for an Apple-like company to fix the UX of info…
The biggest problem with this theory is that it is so opposite of how apple does things. Apple always controls the entire stack.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#26The missing possibility is that no one wins generalized self-driving. Self-driving is not a solvable or a winnable problem, because the problem or question isn’t defined. It’s a probabilistic space, where the world presents scenarios, and a computer must make a “correct” or “good” decision as often as possible, for the widest range of inputs. Because there isn’t a grand unified formula for self-driving, I’m not even…
Why is this so complicated, to me self-driving being solved is when I get into a car to get to work and don't have to touch any controls other than the AC maybe. Pretty well-defined, no?
It would depend on your route to work. There are also billions of routes to work and other places that should work as well.
Maybe if enough routes work that people find it worth to buy.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#27Earlier quoted context omitted.
My pet theory is that Apple won’t produce a car; rather, they’ll produce a car cockpit. A kit of standard, high quality parts, comprising everything a driver touches. So Ford would make a car, Apple would make the screen, steering wheel, mirrors, etc. Might be a trim level or package on existing car models. Every time I drive an unfamiliar car, I see so much opportunity for an Apple-like company to fix the UX of info…
The biggest problem with this theory is that it is so opposite of how apple does things. Apple always controls the entire stack.
Agree, but they've also done things like CarPlay. They obviously saw a problem to solve there; I think it wouldn't be hard at all to see them produce first-party CarPlay hardware.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#28Possibility 9 — nobody does, because there is no such thing as self-driving. The whole name "self-driving" is invented to pull the wool on public's eyes, and is a misnomer. It's fundamentally clear to anybody moderately technically literate that what "self-driving" companies can't be called "driving," yet there are way more studied, and credited people than us here working in these companies who know that, and stay s…
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Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#29The missing possibility is that no one wins generalized self-driving. Self-driving is not a solvable or a winnable problem, because the problem or question isn’t defined. It’s a probabilistic space, where the world presents scenarios, and a computer must make a “correct” or “good” decision as often as possible, for the widest range of inputs. Because there isn’t a grand unified formula for self-driving, I’m not even…
How's that a missing possibility? It's in number eight.
Re: Who will win the self-driving race? Here are eight possibilities
#30"A decade from now, we'll be able to look back and say which companies or approaches were on the right track. For now, we can only guess." My first thought was that a decade from now there will be a very limited number of self driving cars on the road, still. Mostly because people (not all people, but most people) will be very scared of the technology, no matter how good it is. Every time there's an accident it'll ma…
My bet is that we will see self driving features in an emergency intervention, where you are still in control generally but if the system predicts a crash in a future time horizon, it will intervene.