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Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

arstechnica.com

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Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#21

Post by fallingknife »

zippergz wrote: post #12
eplanit wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're confusing Bezos with Musk. Musk is revolutionizing the adoption of solar energy and non-petroleum vehicles, and even has a goal of liberating humanity from Earth itself. Lofty, and becoming so real. Not to mention Spacex/starlink and the implications for a truly global internet, _serious_ space travel, ... Name one thing Bezos is doing that isn't about himself. I liked his "thank you" to Amazon customers (I f…

I truly don't know how anyone can believe a word Elon Musk says at this point. I'm not saying I trust Bezos either, but Elon has burned any shred of credibility he ever had.

The government and private industry find him very credible when purchasing launch services. Wall St and private investors find him very credible when raising capital. And those people are far more credible than you, an anonymous commenter on HN.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#22

Post by whiddershins »

laurowyn wrote: post #9

Has he some how gone bankrupt? I can't help but feel if he wants to keep Blue Origin running, he could use a handful of the cash he has laying around one of his mansions. or one of his yachts. or his Texas launch complex. Pretty sure he could bank roll Blue Origin for decades without seeing any significant hit to his personal wealth.

Isn’t almost all of his wealth in Amazon stock?

Regardless, no one is wealthy enough to keep a business of this scale going just as a hobby project.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#23

Post by dionysus_jon »

bluGill wrote: post #15
dionysus_jon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He can keep spending, that by itself won't make it a successful business.

Define success. Jeff can define success however he wants. He can define it in terms of making money, or in terms of successful launches. Making money is hard - there is only so much demand for things in space, and some competition - making it questionable if the investment will pay off. However launching isn't as hard, and he can define metrics in that way and be successful for his purposes. How is launching things i…

Success could be many things:

* Like delivery of engines to customers.

* Getting to orbit.

* Winning large contracts.

* Putting amazons internet satellites into LEO.

etc...

Space demand will grow incredibly fast very soon as SpaceX leads the incredible prices drops in $ per KG to orbit.

I'd love for them to be successful, and its great to see so many space companies being created, testing, and launching. And it's very important for the future of civilisation. That doesn't mean that you can't ask questions about the health of a particular company.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#24

Post by SteveCoast »

Bezos should give BO to SpaceX (or maybe Rocket Lab) to run, much like Buffet gave the bulk of his money to the Gates Foundation.

It will a) put the best person on the job, b) close down an unnecessary spat and c) remove the opportunity cost and let Bezos focus on other things.

It would be a win for everyone on Earth apart from ULA.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#25

Post by robertlagrant »

laurowyn wrote: post #17
dionysus_jon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He can keep spending, that by itself won't make it a successful business.

My point is he could buy a lot of time to save the business. He's not "running out of time". The entire article just feels like: woe is the billionaire's pet project failing because it's not profitable in an unreasonably short amount of time despite plenty of cash availability if said billionaire wants to continue and achieve their original goals.

Equity in Amazon is not the same as cash.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#26

Post by simplicio »

whiddershins wrote: post #22
laurowyn wrote: post #9

Has he some how gone bankrupt? I can't help but feel if he wants to keep Blue Origin running, he could use a handful of the cash he has laying around one of his mansions. or one of his yachts. or his Texas launch complex. Pretty sure he could bank roll Blue Origin for decades without seeing any significant hit to his personal wealth.

Isn’t almost all of his wealth in Amazon stock? Regardless, no one is wealthy enough to keep a business of this scale going just as a hobby project.

He's said he plans to sell 1 billion of Amazon stock a year to fund Blue Origin. That seems like enough to keep it going, and as long as Amazon continues at or above its current share price, Bezos does appear to be wealthy enough to keep this going as a hobby project for at least a few decades.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#27

Post by WalterBright »

> The problem is that by beginning his company with a focus on space tourism and flying on the very first mission himself, Bezos only plays into the hands of critics.

I'd frame it as Bezos demonstrated supreme confidence in the rocket by being personally on the first manned flight.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#28

Post by dionysus_jon »

laurowyn wrote: post #17
dionysus_jon wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He can keep spending, that by itself won't make it a successful business.

My point is he could buy a lot of time to save the business. He's not "running out of time". The entire article just feels like: woe is the billionaire's pet project failing because it's not profitable in an unreasonably short amount of time despite plenty of cash availability if said billionaire wants to continue and achieve their original goals.

Is 20 years an unreasonable amount of time?

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#29

Post by imglorp »

dionysus_jon wrote: post #13
laurowyn wrote: post #9

Has he some how gone bankrupt? I can't help but feel if he wants to keep Blue Origin running, he could use a handful of the cash he has laying around one of his mansions. or one of his yachts. or his Texas launch complex. Pretty sure he could bank roll Blue Origin for decades without seeing any significant hit to his personal wealth.

He can keep spending, that by itself won't make it a successful business.

He needs to get something in orbit, anything. Once he has a single win, he can start scoring launch contracts and competing in the launch provider market. He should end up more profitable than every provider with disposable launchers.

New Glenn should be that vehicle, if they ever finish it.

Re: Despite Tuesday’s flight, Jeff Bezos is running out of time to save Blue Origin

#30

Post by mLuby »

sacred_numbers wrote: post #14
growt wrote: post #6

"projects in the works to support moving heavy industry from the surface of our planet into space. ... To set humanity on this environmentally sustainable path" How is moving - literally - heavy industry into space environmentally friendly?

There's no environment in space, so displacing heavy industry on Earth (which does have an environment) with industry in space would theoretically be a good thing. This depends on exactly where in space you do this, though, and the number of rocket launches on Earth required to support heavy industry in space could have a significant impact on the environment.

Exactly. And "space" itself isn't a great place for industry, it has solar radiation for power, vacuum and no gravity for certain industrial processes, and lots of space to put things.

I expect heavy industry (and mining) will be on vacuum worlds like the Moon, asteroids, and Mercury, with some specialized processes and assembly done in orbit. Space is mostly for power satellites and habitats.

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