Live data from Hacker News

The Incoming Currency War

promarket.org

21–30 of 32 posts

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#21
Of everyone I talk to within the finance community no-one (and I mean NO ONE) actually has interest in CBDC's besides the banks themselves.

I frankly just don't understand why anyone should care. If they want to roll out a federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA just do so and leave us out of it. It never touches any of the qualities that make a cryptocurrency or even a digital currency interesting or adoptable by the masses.

So I'm entirely sure why we're getting hit by a slew of narrative op-eds extolling the virtues of this to the public. It's not like the masses really care how the backend system will be setup. If it's better just do it, but don't think for one second I'm believing it will benefit the small folk.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we may be using a different definition of monetarism. I mean the circa 1980-present understanding of money, public debt, and their relationship to inflation, gdp & employment growth. Also, critically, the rules of thumb governing monetary policy. Inflation targets. Interest rates. By "ended" I mean "no longer a consensus opinion, among those that matter." Public debt, empirically, is not longer thought to be…

> Interest rates will no longer be the primary inflation targeting tool Why? We don't have inflation so rates are being kept low. Countries with inflation pressure are raising rates and holding off inflation. > issuing currency (eg USD) without issuing an equal and opposite (kinda) number of debt instruments This is how the Federal Reserve has worked for over a century. The Fed doesn't create Treasuries; it absorbs t…

So... one at a time.

> Why? We don't have inflation so rates are being kept low. Countries with inflation pressure are raising rates and holding off inflation.

Under monetarism (again, definitions... I mean the Friedman-esque CB norms, circa 1980-present), it's supposed to work the opposite way.

Interest rates are lowered to increase inflation, because low interest is thought to be inflationary. They've been low for a long time. No inflation. Hence why monetarism was lost ground. Both public debt and low interest rates were seen as dangerous, eventually leading to hyperinflation. CB independence was created in order to prevent politicians, who want wage increases, jobs and such from lowering interest rates and crashing the currency.

> Countries with inflation pressure

IDK as much about these, though I am curious. Any explanation would be a macroeconomic theory, and IDK which one is true. That said, I suspect the problem in some/most such countries (eg Russia, Turkey) is a combination of taxation & capital flight. They don't have enough ability to tax, and hence remove "excess" currency from the system. Simultaneously, capital is at risk. If you are the Jeff Bezos of Turkey, you want to keep your money safe by putting it in the (US) S&P 500.

In the US & EU, taxation (of normal people, at least) is easy. How much money Bezos has does not impact his spending in any way, so it doesn't influence the price of goods, so it doesn't really matter (to consumer price inflation) how much tax he pays.

I'm mostly rambling on this one. Haven't read or thought much about these countries/currencies.

>This is how the Federal Reserve has worked for over a century

IDk the full history. Gold reserves were, at least ostensibly, required for much of this period.

Currently, the Fed doesn't technically issue debt instruments besides USD. The Treasury does. It's really a technicality though. That's why they're called treasury notes. The Fed makes USD, gives them to the treasury. The Treasury makes T notes, gives them to the Fed. Treasury spends the USD. Fed keeps the notes, sometimes uses them to manipulate debt markets or trade for foreign ones.

Under a permanent 0% interest regime (I'm not predicting, just projecting), the whole thing becomes quasi-superstitious.

> The type of monetarism which encouraged fiscal neutrality was never more than a fringe theory

This is why I haven't mentioned Milton Friedman until now. I am sure he, and most people who have literally called themselves monetarists would claim that "monetarism has never been tried." He certainly made this point in his lifetime.

So... IDK how to resolve that. Monetary policy has never been not "Pure Monetarism" in a sense that Friedman would have certified. The biggest detours are usually during financial crisis, when "keynsian" concepts like "stimulus" gain ground. That said, I think they've always been restrained by monetarism, and incorporated (IMO catastrophic) bits of monetarism to balance out the expected (under monetarism) inflation of such policies.

Macroeconomics schools, including the education I received circa 2004, CBs, finance ministers, etc. have been more influenced by this theory than any others. I would argue that the eurozone is designed & structured as a Monetarist currency system. I'm not sure what you meant by "fiscal neutrality" (did you mean monetary/CB neutrality?), but it is designed to maintain nation states' fiscal & tax independence while handing over all monetary power to the CB.

The problem (from a non-monetarist) perspective, is that money isn't actually created by the ECB. It's created by government spending regardless of the ECB. The greek crisis taught us that. I didn't understand what was meant, ATT, when officials referred to the risk that "euros in greek banks would trade at a different exchange rate." Now I do. The greek government accumulates debt regardless. If the ECB doesn't back that debt, a euro in a Greek bank account is effectively a separate currency. Governments do monetary policy whether or not they own an CB. It's just messier and more unstable. You can't really sepeare fiscal and monetary controls IRL.

^BTW I could be and probably am wrong about some or all of this. This is all in the spirit of digital pint-talk. I know these topic can get heated. No disrespect meant, regardless of disagreement.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Interest rates will no longer be the primary inflation targeting tool Why? We don't have inflation so rates are being kept low. Countries with inflation pressure are raising rates and holding off inflation. > issuing currency (eg USD) without issuing an equal and opposite (kinda) number of debt instruments This is how the Federal Reserve has worked for over a century. The Fed doesn't create Treasuries; it absorbs t…

So... one at a time. > Why? We don't have inflation so rates are being kept low. Countries with inflation pressure are raising rates and holding off inflation. Under monetarism (again, definitions... I mean the Friedman-esque CB norms, circa 1980-present), it's supposed to work the opposite way. Interest rates are lowered to increase inflation, because low interest is thought to be inflationary. They've been low for…

> "digital pint talk"

This is a wonderful turn of phrase. Hacker News is my favorite pub.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#24
post #21

Of everyone I talk to within the finance community no-one (and I mean NO ONE) actually has interest in CBDC's besides the banks themselves. I frankly just don't understand why anyone should care. If they want to roll out a federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA just do so and leave us out of it. It never touches any of the qualities that make a cryptocurrency or even a digital currency interesting or adoptable by the masses. So I…

I agree that no one in the public cares about CBDC.

That said, it doesn't mean that it's not interesting or impactful. It may be just federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA in theory. In practice, such systems matter.

The guts of the financial system are an evolved mess, with all sorts of shadowy institutions, clearing houses and mess in the middle. These end up having impact.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#25
post #11
post #7

So... digitisation certainly has a lot of disruption potential. I would frame it differently though... I also don't think it's the only factor. First, digitisation has already happened. Most money has been digital for a long time. The full consequences of digitisation just haven't materialised yet. Centralisation of the banking & financial services world, regulation, cascading structure (clearing houses, etc) and gen…

> I would argue that large parts of the financial system actually failed 13 years ago. Bailouts restored them. There are substantial movements in the market that only make sense if the motivation is a straightforward government intervention. It is a mockery of everything the financial system strives to be when we get hit by the worst crisis in around 30-50 years and the response of the stock market is leaping like a…

> I'm keeping a weather eye out for the day that the majority of US spending is done by the government.

These folk [1] says it was 31% in 2020.

If you subtract the ~$6 trillion of bogus GDP from 'hedonic and imputed' adjustments [2] (as one must), then you are probably already there.

Welcome tovarisch.

[1] https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spend...

[2] unless you thin $6t of home mortgage payments that never happened and improved electronics is describing the same thing as entire GDP of Japan.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#26
post #21

Of everyone I talk to within the finance community no-one (and I mean NO ONE) actually has interest in CBDC's besides the banks themselves. I frankly just don't understand why anyone should care. If they want to roll out a federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA just do so and leave us out of it. It never touches any of the qualities that make a cryptocurrency or even a digital currency interesting or adoptable by the masses. So I…

I agree that no one in the public cares about CBDC. That said, it doesn't mean that it's not interesting or impactful. It may be just federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA in theory. In practice, such systems matter. The guts of the financial system are an evolved mess, with all sorts of shadowy institutions, clearing houses and mess in the middle. These end up having impact.

I'd welcome it if it actually provided a benefit to end users but I'm highly doubtful the institutions involved can move at anything but the glacial pace they always seen to.

More concerning for me is the continual "push" by news narratives telling us how CBDC's will bring about a utopia.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#27
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that no one in the public cares about CBDC. That said, it doesn't mean that it's not interesting or impactful. It may be just federated IBAN/SWIFT/SEPA in theory. In practice, such systems matter. The guts of the financial system are an evolved mess, with all sorts of shadowy institutions, clearing houses and mess in the middle. These end up having impact.

I'd welcome it if it actually provided a benefit to end users but I'm highly doubtful the institutions involved can move at anything but the glacial pace they always seen to. More concerning for me is the continual "push" by news narratives telling us how CBDC's will bring about a utopia.

i'm with you on the pessimism. I haven't quite experienced a continual "push" by news narratives.

I think this is likely just excitement by nerds within the establishment, just like there is outside of it, at all the crypto stuff going on.

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#28
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I would argue that large parts of the financial system actually failed 13 years ago. Bailouts restored them. There are substantial movements in the market that only make sense if the motivation is a straightforward government intervention. It is a mockery of everything the financial system strives to be when we get hit by the worst crisis in around 30-50 years and the response of the stock market is leaping like a…

> I'm keeping a weather eye out for the day that the majority of US spending is done by the government. These folk [1] says it was 31% in 2020. If you subtract the ~$6 trillion of bogus GDP from 'hedonic and imputed' adjustments [2] (as one must), then you are probably already there. Welcome tovarisch. [1] https://datalab.usaspending.gov/americas-finance-guide/spend... [2] unless you thin $6t of home mortgage payment…

And that doesn't appear to include the spending of state, county, and municipal governments...

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#29
Why does there have to be a "war"? There have been times in history when multiple currencies have been used in parallel for international trade.

See How Global Currencies Work: Past, Present, and Future by Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chitu:

> At first glance, the modern history of the global economic system seems to support the long-held view that the leading world power’s currency—the British pound, the U.S. dollar, and perhaps someday the Chinese yuan—invariably dominates international trade and finance. In How Global Currencies Work, three noted economists provide a reassessment of this history and the theories behind the conventional wisdom.

> Offering a new history of global finance over the past two centuries, and marshaling extensive new data to test established theories of how global currencies work, Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, and Livia Chiţu argue for a new view, in which several national monies can share international currency status, and their importance can change rapidly. They demonstrate how changes in technology and in the structure of international trade and finance have reshaped the landscape of international currencies so that several international financial standards can coexist. They show that multiple international and reserve currencies have in fact coexisted in the past—upending the traditional view of the British pound’s dominance prior to 1945 and the U.S. dollar’s dominance more recently.

> Looking forward, the book tackles the implications of this new framework for major questions facing the future of the international monetary system, from whether the euro and the Chinese yuan might address their respective challenges and perhaps rival the dollar, to how increased currency competition might affect global financial stability.

* https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691177007/ho...

Re: The Incoming Currency War

#30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Now I am starting to acknowledge and recognize reactionaries and unbelief. Constant. Overwhelming. Exhausting. > Worse, any progress begats pushback, backlash, doubling down. > It's like we can't win. > Today, I subscribe to David Graeber's theories for making social progress. Work in the margins. Push forward where you can, strategically. Don't storm the castle. Conserve your strength. Pick your battles. Take the…

Maybe start with Utopia of Rules? Even though his books progressively build his world view over time, that might be the most accessible. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Utopia_of_Rules Last year, I binged on his audiobooks (local library), and own the hard copies to leaf thru. Sorry, can't vouch for how accessible his ideas are. I'm very primed to hear what Graeber has to say. Chomsky, McLuhan, Postman, etc. And ev…

His Fragments of an Anarchist Anthropology is good and short and findable on the internet as PDF if you're looking for an amuse bouche of Graeber's ideas before tackling Debt
Post reply on HN